HMMMM, I seem to remember recently when Mike was predicting an ice storm and many here were making fun of that prediction. Guess what we got? LOL

HMMMM, I seem to remember recently when Mike was predicting an ice storm and many here were making fun of that prediction. Guess what we got? LOL

As sensational as he is, of the TV weathermen, Mike seems to be the most accurate.

We are already under a moderate severe threat on Saturday.

Most sites have Saturday as 20% chance of storms and some describe it as partly sunny....Get them ratings Mike

SPC pushed the higher risk area up north into Kansas in their long range outlook.

HMMMM, I seem to remember recently when Mike was predicting an ice storm and many here were making fun of that prediction. Guess what we got? LOL

I so desperately want to make a snide comment about blind squirrels and finding acorns, but I won't. See, I can exercise restraint.

Tomorrow's Discussion: Storm Outlook ? May 15th | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=217)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/20130515-2.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/20130515-2.png)

Thursday's severe weather risk appears to be restricted to the panhandles. The chance of severe storms is low however with weak convergence along the dryline expected right now and a strong cap.http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gifShould anything develop along the dryline it will likely go severe, but coverage won't be that extensive.
Added Discussion: GFS seems to be ahead a bit in its orientation of the main features compared to NAM. It also has stronger convergence along the dryline, especially into Texas. Still some doubts on much firing as the GFS even holds back on much, if any, precip during the forecast period. Forecast soundings are favorable for severe storms, but it all depends if they develop. If they do, hail and wind is the big concerns since LCLs will be high and winds won't be very favorable for tornadoes.
NAM Data
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130516-2.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/060/SKT_NAM__KLTS.png
GFS Data
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130516-2gfs.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/060/SKT_GFS__KLTS.png
Friday May 17th
For Friday May 17th, severe risk will increase over Oklahoma as the dryline moves east some. The cap is still expected to be strong so that should keep storm coverage down. However, storms that do form will be severe in most cases. Tornado risk looks low, so mainly high wind/hail threat.
Added Discussion: GFS has the dryline punching in a bit further east than NAM, but generally the same orientation. GFS also has very high to extreme instability over Central and Eastern OK. So if anything can fire, it will had a ton of juice to play with. GFS forecast sounding indicates large hail being a bit concern but also favorable wind environment for rotation storms and a tornado or two if things are able to happen.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130517-1.png
GFS Data
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130517-1gfs.png

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/084/SKT_GFS__koun.png

Had time to look at the GFS now so adding that component to the forecasts. Here is my updated discussion that I just posted at: Storm Outlook ? May 15th | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=217).

UPDATE to include GFS data.

Original Discussion: The outlook for storms on Wednesday isn’t really that high. Instability will be present over much of the are, especially over Western and Northern Oklahoma. We will see the dryline hang out in the Central panhandles for much of the day, but could see a couple areas along it provide enhanced areas of convergence to set off a couple storms. Best chance appears to be along a bulge in the Southern Panhandle area near Childress. If storms form there they will move slowly to the NE. Should they enter western Oklahoma they will encounter a much more favorable shear environment to assist in the formation of supercells. The big downfall is that the cap strength will be pretty strong in this area as well, which could kill off any storms that manage to make it in.

Added Discussion: With the 12Z GFS now out completely, wanted to provide a side by side comparison of the two. Both are similar with instability (mostly) and also helicity values over Western OK. GFs does show better convergence along the dryline into Western OK, so the risk area is extended north if we focus on that model’s solution. Both forecast soundings are strongly favorable of severe storms should any develop. The key is going to be over coming CIN, the cap, cloud cover and actually seeing the convergence/lift being forecast. If that can happen, we could see a pretty active weather day.

NAM Forecast Products
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_sfc_cloud_030.gif

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/20130515-2.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/20130515-2.png)


http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/036/SKT_NAM__kcsm.png

GFS Forecast Products
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130515-2gfs.png

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/036/SKT_GFS__KCSM.png

Omaha reached 100 today breaking a record held since 1915.

It is/was 104 degrees in Sioux City, Illinois a bit ago

I posted an update to the Thursday/Friday post as well. Working on Saturday now. I'm also adding more graphics on the discussion pages for those days on the blog. I don't want to bombard this thread too much with a ton of images since I know many view it on mobile devices and such. Here are links to the threads themselves...

May 15th: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=217

May 16th & 17th: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=223

May 18th: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=233

Saturday Outlook

This day is getting a lot of attention, so I wanted to break down the way it is looking. Right now it appears the dryline will set up to the west near the OK/TX border but we’ll have to see just how far east it gets. GFS shows an extensive area of instability build out ahead of it. Conditions appears very favorable for severe thunderstorms including all modes of weather. At this point it will come down to timing and how much coverage. Models don’t go crazy with widespread storms, but they do at least develop them. GFS is keep storms off until after 7PM which would make this a night time affair for many. All indices are in place though for an active day, but we still have a lot of potential events to get through first before seeing what the setup is going to look like.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130518-1.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/108/SKT_GFS__kcsm.png
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_114.gif

I'm headed out to western OK regardless tomorrow as I've taken the next 5 days off for my annual "Chasecation." Hopefully I can stumble upon a large hailstone or two.

What's the best radar to watch? I usually use Intellicast or Channel 9's radar.

I'm headed out to western OK regardless tomorrow as I've taken the next 5 days off for my annual "Chasecation." Hopefully I can stumble upon a large hailstone or two.

Be safe out there and enjoy. :)

What's the best radar to watch? I usually use Intellicast or Channel 9's radar.

If I'm not home I'll usually use the NWS page: National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)

I have started though to have mine publish to my website when a new scan is received (normally every 4-6 minutes for NWS radars): Live Radar ? KTLX Norman/OKC | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=164)

Thanks !!!

Short range models bring a decent shot of rain and storms today to the state. Currently some ongoing light precip down along the Red River and Southern OK. Looks for this rain to continue moving mostly north spread over much of Southern/Central Ok through noon. By Noon we could have storms forming in Southern OK behind the first wave of precip. Coverage will grow through the day and we could see some marginal or isolated severe reports come out of it today. Best chance for severe weather will be over Northern TX with storms firing near Wichita Falls by 5PM this evening.

9Z HRRR Radar Loop: Loop (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013051509&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5)

Waiting on the morning model run before comment on Sunday, but SPC has outlined a 30% risk area for a good chunk of the state...same on Monday. Will post more later after the 12Z runs.

Heads up for today...

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)32m (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/334664337291628545)
With storms in the forecast, be sure your weather radio is ready for action! We'll test the alarm today at noon and 7pm.

Heads up for today...

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)32m (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/334664337291628545)
With storms in the forecast, be sure your weather radio is ready for action! We'll test the alarm today at noon and 7pm.

hey venture, I asked last week about rain because of my daughters softball games in moore, well they have been re scheduled for the third time for tonight starting at 7:15 pm.. So does it look like it will be a washout again.

Storms firing south of Whicita Falls now. Showers and storms will likely keep filling in over S OK.

hey venture, I asked last week about rain because of my daughters softball games in moore, well they have been re scheduled for the third time for tonight starting at 7:15 pm.. So does it look like it will be a washout again.

Ehhh. Quite possibly. There is a chance we could see things dry out a bit by evening here in Central OK, but still expect it be quite wet out there.

I was holding out but the weather got the best of me, put the top back up on the jeep :(

The Frederick radar has to be the most unreliable radar ever. Such a pivotal location...

Outlook next 3 days...Sunday's is coming up.

Severe storm chances increase each day with a possible significant event on Sunday into Monday. Today expect scattered showers and storms, but more severe weather should be south of the Red River. An isolated severe storm can’t be ruled out, but it is not very likely.
Tomorrow, Thursday May 16th, expect storm chances to be pretty low. We might see some storms out along the dryline in Texas and the threat may spread into far Western OK.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130516-3.png
Friday May 17th we’ll see things move a bit closer to Oklahoma. The dryline will still be well into TX and the setup will be pretty similar to Thursday. Instability will be up a bit and a better chance that storms could make it into SW OK. Main threats remain hail/high wind.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130517-2.png
For Saturday May 18th severe risks go up a bit more, but models aren’t in perfect agreement. The main difference lays in the position of the dryline. NAM holds it farther back and GFS pushes it a bit further east that on Friday. Instability forecasts are pretty much both on the nose. Highlight western OK for now, but parts of Central OK will probably have a chance for storms as well with the high levels of energy available. Main weather threats will be hail and wind, if any storms get going in NW OK a tornado threat could develop.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130518-2.png

Potential significant severe weather on Sunday May 19th for much of Oklahoma. GFS forecasts are off the charts for a classic significant severe weather day. Dryline will be setting up over Western OK and will slowly move east through the afternoon/evening. It will remain west of the OKC area. Storms will fire along the dryline by late afternoon. Conditions will be extremely favorable for supercell storms. Instability will be high to extreme, helicity and shear will be near idea for tornadic development, and potential for very large hail. We have to keep an eye on this day as it evolves, but this could be one of the more significant days we’ve seen in some time.
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/108/SKT_GFS__koun.png

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_dewp_108.gif
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_108.gif
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_sbcape_108.gif
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/US/gfsUS_con_scp_108.gif
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_3kmehi_108.gif

Really quick, we have a storm moving in that is intensifying over Norman pretty quickly. Small hail is starting to occur with it and Wind is increasing.

Storm is near severe limits now. Getting some dime to quarters with winds to around 50.

Heavy rain near 50 Penn

Heavy rain near 50 Penn

Quick! Everyone to rickself's house! He has a storm shelter! Let's goooooooooooooooooooo!

Scattered showers and storms continue to move through. The storm up in Oklahoma County isn't as strong as it was over Norman, but heavy rain and hail will be the norm. More storms popping up down south as expected with some small hail with them right now. We stayed mostly pea and dime with a couple quarters mixed in.

I wanted to go back and talk about the setup on Sunday. Looking at the forecast sounding product, I cannot remember the last time when this product showing a 100% supercell potential. So that highlights what kind of day it could be. LI is near -10 and CAPE over 3500 j/kg which just highlights extreme instability.

So looking at the tornadic potential. LCL is down around 890 mb, still a bit high, but we'll see what happens. 1km SRH of 244.7 is pretty intense. EHI of 7.4 is extreme as well. Hodograph has a perfect arch to right. Direction shear is there and speed shear is also there.

Storm direction is going to be NE at 25-30 mph. Precipitable Water is around 1.56" which could highlight a chance for some HP cells, but its right on the line.

Overall, the setup on Sunday by GFS is classic outbreak stuff. Things can change a lot. We've seen how Saturday looked great and then nothing. So no sense to get worked up yet, just keep things in mind and pay attention to forecasts.

I wanted to go back and talk about the setup on Sunday. Looking at the forecast sounding product, I cannot remember the last time when this product showing a 100% supercell potential. So that highlights what kind of day it could be. LI is near -10 and CAPE over 3500 j/kg which just highlights extreme instability.

So looking at the tornadic potential. LCL is down around 890 mb, still a bit high, but we'll see what happens. 1km SRH of 244.7 is pretty intense. EHI of 7.4 is extreme as well. Hodograph has a perfect arch to right. Direction shear is there and speed shear is also there.

Storm direction is going to be NE at 25-30 mph. Precipitable Water is around 1.56" which could highlight a chance for some HP cells, but its right on the line.

Overall, the setup on Sunday by GFS is classic outbreak stuff. Things can change a lot. We've seen how Saturday looked great and then nothing. So no sense to get worked up yet, just keep things in mind and pay attention to forecasts.

venture79, you’re almost scaring me with the Sunday WX information.
You normally almost make it a point to down play sever WX threats at least compared to some of the other MET’s.

I know you will keep us informed, but I am, along with most others I suspect, are particularly interested in the Armageddon tornado threat and the geographical locations of the biggest Tornado threats?

venture79, you’re almost scaring me with the Sunday WX information.
You normally almost make it a point to down play sever WX threats at least compared to some of the other MET’s.

I know you will keep us informed, but I am, along with most others I suspect, are particularly interested in the Armageddon tornado threat and the geographical locations of the biggest Tornado threats?

Keep in mind I also said that things can change on a dime, which this very well still could. However, we are starting to see models come together to put together a decent sized event for late this weekend.

I just want to get out what things are showing so everyone is prepared. I definitely make it a point to keep the hype down so that way when a setup starts to look serious, and I change my tone, it is pretty noticeable.

venture79, you’re almost scaring me with the Sunday WX information.
You normally almost make it a point to down play sever WX threats at least compared to some of the other MET’s.

I know you will keep us informed, but I am, along with most others I suspect, are particularly interested in the Armageddon tornado threat and the geographical locations of the biggest Tornado threats?

Most of the forecasting in this thread is done on a "this is what it looks like right now" basis. For the best results, tune into this thread and the chat during the day/night before and hours leading up to the events. This thread basically turns into now-casting and reaches peak of accuracy.



Right now Sunday looks interesting, and even Monday looks soupy for OK.

EDIT: Woops double post.

I will use this to talk about right now.

Showers and thunderstorms keep devloping over S C OK as stated would happen earlier. These will dump nice rain. General movement is N with a slight push E with development.

as long as it doesn't wake me up from my Sunday nap time.

Damon Lane is showing the highest tornado threat to be up in Kansas. Then again, he is usually less accurate than Mike Morgan from my own observation.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0644.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 152004Z - 152130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLY
MATERIALIZING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS N CNTRL TX.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FROM SRN OK INTO FAR NRN TX...WHERE A MOIST
AIR MASS EXISTS AND NO CAPPING. SOME OF THE INCREASE IN CORE
INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL
AS AREAS OF HEATING UPSTREAM. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AS DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH 25-30 KT.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS NWRN TX...AND
EXTENDING SWD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL AIR. HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE TX S PLAINS...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES E...IT WILL
INTERSECT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. OTHER CELLS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX AS HEATING PERSISTS. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT ATOP SURFACE SELYS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHILE LARGE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION AIDS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

CONGEALING OUTFLOWS WITH TIME SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE MCS/S...POSSIBLY FORWARD PROPAGATING INTO THE METROPLEX AREA
LATER TODAY WITH BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANY STORMS THAT FORM FARTHER E NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY HAVE A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHILE PROPENSITY FOR MERGING OUTFLOWS WITH
HIGHER BASED ACTIVITY TO THE W WILL FAVOR WIND AND HAIL.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 05/15/2013

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0160_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM EVOLUTION ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL
OK ACT ON VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF TX DRYLINE AND ALONG/SOUTH
OF RED RIVER WARM FRONT. CURRENT CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WARM FRONT IN SCNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. WITH TIME FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST AS SHEAR AND LIFT STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE MID/UPPER
LOW. PROXIMITY TO STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
WATCH SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. EVENTUALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE IF CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE AND INTERACTS WITH
RESIDUAL STORM-SCALE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DURING THE EVENING. IF
THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES EVIDENT...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

With regard to the motion of the system, are we going to receive anymore rain today?

With regard to the motion of the system, are we going to receive anymore rain today?

It has been raining for about an hour nonstop so far in Norman, so yes, it'll eventually make it up to you guys.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_br1.png

We've had one confirmed tornado now south of the Red River in Montague County. Will need to start watching some of these cells for quick spin ups through the evening. The developing mid level low pressure is centered right now over Watonga and isn't really moving all that much. Steady light to moderate rainfall will continue in quite a few areas along the I-35 corridor for awhile, especially south of I-40. Also have moderate to heavy rain east, and back to the NW of OKC proper.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0161_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH ALONG SSW-NNE
CONFLUENCE AXIS ATTM EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX TO W OF
BROWNWOOD TX. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOSTERED BOTH BY CONTINUED SFC
HEATING AND BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW MOVING ESE
ACROSS W TX. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR/VEERING WIND
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION..MOIST...15-20 KT S TO SSELY
SFC FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN RISK FOR LOW-LVL
MESOS WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
BROKEN SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES THROUGH LATE TNGT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

In the last 15 minutes we've gone from zero to 3 individually TOR warned supercells now. They are all in TX however, so no worries for us right now. The cell that will move into Love County does still have some decent rotation with it and has produced already.

Interesting feature near Byng has been quite consistent showing rotation as its traveled east through Pontotoc County. It is north of Ada. Would imagine some pretty gusty winds in there, but with the way things are going maybe a quick spin up as well?

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/15-1.png

Tornado Warning for Love County. If you know people who are at WinStar, may want to give them a heads up.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
711 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LOVE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 708 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARIETTA...THACKERVILLE...LEON...RUBOTTOM...BURNEY VILLE AND
COURTNEY.


http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/15-2.png

For that area I was talking about by Ada earlier, that line is now SVR warned for destructive winds up to 70 mph. Pretty much anywhere along the bow/arch as seen on the velocity image.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/15-3.png

Multiple tornadoes being reported on the ground in TX.

Multiple tornadoes being reported on the ground in TX.

Doesn't look like any of the stations stream live online down there. I-35 south into Dallas tonight is not a fun drive. Just about every storm is severe warned, so I turned that off to just show tornado warnings. Expect Parker and Tarrant counties to get a tornado warning here soon.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/15-4.png

Some live feeds from chasers down there:

http://www.severestudios.com/player-full/aaron.dooley/
http://www.severestudios.com/player/daniel.shaw/
TVNweather Live Chasing (http://tvnweather.com/live)

Nice NROT (normalized rotation) 3D image of the rotation right now in Johnson County, TX.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/kfws_20130516_0119.png

New storm just popped up in Tarrant County and is already TOR warned. Includes Arlington, Grand Prairie and west side of Dallas.

Man, the video feed from Aaron Dooley is showing a significant lowering west of Waco

Rick Smith ‏@ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm)37s (https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/334857828047142913)
RT @NBCDFWWeather (https://twitter.com/NBCDFWWeather): Spotters reporting a mile wide tornado 5 miles north of Rio Vista. TAKE SHELTER NOW. #dfwwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23dfwwx&src=hash) pic.twitter.com/LFNIDMN07S (http://t.co/LFNIDMN07S)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/15-5.png

Quote of the night by Damon. :)

Damon Lane ‏@KOCOdamonlane (https://twitter.com/KOCOdamonlane)8m (https://twitter.com/KOCOdamonlane/status/334861764044943363)
Tonight should be a clear indication that there is no such thing as "justa" slight risk. #txwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23txwx&src=hash) pic.twitter.com/wtuY0irWiA (http://t.co/wtuY0irWiA)

Watching the KXAS live stream with Rick Mitchell. Really miss him in this market. No offense to Damon Lane, but Rick was great IMHO. Measured, informative delivery and coverage. There's a reason he's gone on to bigger markets.

Media reports over 100 injured a couple fatalities tonight in the DFW area.

Media reports over 100 injured a couple fatalities tonight in the DFW area.

Obviously, Oklahoma also sometimes gets injuries and fatalities from severe weather but I have to wonder if the possibility of that happening in places like the Dallas area isn't higher because of a lack of the comprehensive coverage that we get.