Is it weird that I'm more concerned about the flooding threat than the tornado threat? I'm so tired of being on edge every time there is heavy rain. I need sandbags in my yard or something.

It is crazy humid and windy out there this morning, though. Yuck. Let's just hope for moderate rain, tornadoes in empty fields, and small hail cores that miss anything significant.

Is it weird that I'm more concerned about the flooding threat than the tornado threat? I'm so tired of being on edge every time there is heavy rain. I need sandbags in my yard or something.

It is crazy humid and windy out there this morning, though. Yuck. Let's just hope for moderate rain, tornadoes in empty fields, and small hail cores that miss anything significant.


I think you would do good to pay very close attention to Anonymous latest post… #1023

I think you would do good to pay very close attention to Anonymous latest post… #1023

Uh, okay?

I'd give ten bucks if something could just magically push that stinking dryline/front through the area quicker than expected.

Is it weird that I'm more concerned about the flooding threat than the tornado threat? .


Unless you’re hanging out in low spots flooding probably isn’t the biggest issue for most today.
The weather channels TOR CON index is 6 out of 10 for central and eastern Oklahoma

Unless you’re hanging out in low spots flooding probably isn’t the biggest issue for most today.
The weather channels TOR CON index is 6 out of 10 for central and eastern Oklahoma

1. I don't pay attention to the TOR CON index. I listen to the voices of reason here.
2. I have had very bad experiences with flooding. I have never had a bad experience from a tornado. The likelihood of me dealing with flooding on my property is much higher than my one little plot of land being hit by a tornado. But thanks for your concern. I can read, you know. I'm well aware that the weather could get nasty today. But bad weather can mean more than tornadoes for some.

1. I don't pay attention to the TOR CON index. I listen to the voices of reason here.
2. I have had very bad experiences with flooding. I have never had a bad experience from a tornado. The likelihood of me dealing with flooding on my property is much higher than my one little plot of land being hit by a tornado. But thanks for your concern. I can read, you know. I'm well aware that the weather could get nasty today. But bad weather can mean more than tornadoes for some.

Wish to heaven the "Like" button still worked.

Wish to heaven the "Like" button still worked.

Aw, shucks, SD.

1. I don't pay attention to the TOR CON index. I listen to the voices of reason here.
2. I have had very bad experiences with flooding. I have never had a bad experience from a tornado. The likelihood of me dealing with flooding on my property is much higher than my one little plot of land being hit by a tornado. But thanks for your concern. I can read, you know. I'm well aware that the weather could get nasty today. But bad weather can mean more than tornadoes for some.

And voices of reason have said little to noting about flooding as a major threat for OKC today.

http://i.imgur.com/MqeSXNo.jpg

And voices of reason have said little to noting about flooding as a major threat for OKC today.

All right, fine. They didn't. But localized flooding is always a possibility with severe storms, correct?

All right, fine. They didn't. But localized flooding is always a possibility with severe storms, correct?




Sure it is…. but it’s probably not the major consideration for the next few hours for 99% + of the population in our area.

That's why I said that “ I think you would do good to pay very close attention to Anonymous latest post… #1023”

Also, I believe we are under a flash flood watch. So yeah, it's a real possibility.

And voices of reason have said little to noting about flooding as a major threat for OKC today.

Yeah, don't listen to the guys that just issued a flash flood watch for OKC back toward the east.
I guess TWC marketing department hasn't come out with a FloodCon index yet.

Sure it is…. but it’s probably not the major consideration for the next few hours for 99% + of the population in our area.

That's why I said that “ I think you would do good to pay very close attention to Anonymous latest post… #1023”

And as I said, I can read. I read his post. I read ALL OF THE POSTS. I asked if I was weird for being concerned about flooding. I guess you think I'm weird for feeling that way. I think paying attention to TWC is weird. Different strokes.

Yeah, don't listen to the guys that just issued a flash flood watch for OKC back toward the east.
I guess TWC marketing department hasn't come out with a FloodCon index yet.

Shhhhh....they'll hear you.

I guess TWC marketing department hasn't come out with a FloodCon index yet.

DANG!! You beat me to it! :)

Just so it's clear Flooding is a concern today...here is the watch text. It was originally issued yesterday but updated this morning.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>026-028>032-311730-
/O.CON.KOUN.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130601T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-
LINCOLN-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ENID...PERRY...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWN EE...
SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE
427 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CANADIAN...CLEVELAND...
KINGFISHER...LINCOLN...LOGAN...MCCLAIN...OKLAHOMA. ..PAYNE AND
POTTAWATOMIE. IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SEMINOLE. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND NOBLE. IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...HUGHES.

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE SOIL NEARLY SATURATED.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WHICH WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF AND RESULT IN FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING.

* TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD AND AFTER
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZED INTO A COMPLEX OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION. MAKE PLANS TO GET TO
HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING HAPPENS.

Yeah, don't listen to the guys that just issued a flash flood watch for OKC back toward the east.
I guess TWC marketing department hasn't come out with a FloodCon index yet.

It’s still not the first and most major consideration for the next few hours and even if it develops…
Just stay out of low spots and you will be fine.

It’s still not the first and most major consideration for the next few hours and even if it develops…
Just stay out of low spots and you will be fine.

bandnerd will simply move his/her property?

And as I said, I can read. I read his post. I read ALL OF THE POSTS. I asked if I was weird for being concerned about flooding. I guess you think I'm weird for feeling that way. I think paying attention to TWC is weird. Different strokes.

In the hours before a major weather event I try to pay attention to as many reputable sources as I can.
Not everyone in the WX forecasting business bats 1000% all the time….
If you will look back at this thread you will see some discounting the possibilities of various weather threats days in advance while other reputable WX sources were talking about their significance…. But that’s ok, because it’s expected.

bandnerd will simply move his/her property?

Does he/she live in a home that’s mobile?

Okay so a few things on today to add to Anon's points.

First this morning's surface map...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/31.png

Cold front isn't going to make a huge push SE today. It may make I-44 a little after midnight, so don't expect it to rush through. Dryline will move east a bit more and then be overtaken later.

One of the saving graces yesterday for tornado development was the poor low level flow. With our setup we really need SE winds to assist in the directional shear out there. Models all indicate we'll get that later this afternoon.

Upper air sounding this morning from Norman has a pretty tough cap, but the significant heating today will do a number on it.

It looks like we will have initiation today around 3PM or a bit after from Northern OK back to SW OK - North/West of the OKC metro. Main energy will be moving in later this evening between 5 and 7PM according to the latest RAP. This coupled with the increasing LLJ will setup a time period that will be very favorable for tornadoes. We could see a couple strong tornadoes as well today, but the setup isn't perfect. We still need a lot to come into place today and as we saw yesterday, one little ingredient missing can turn what should have been a big tornado day to a lower end event (tornado wise).

Does he/she live in a home that’s mobile?

I (and I'm a woman, ftr) sometimes wish I could put my house on wheels and drive it out of my neighborhood. But, you're not concerned about flooding, I am. Neither of us is going to change our minds. I'll tend to mine, and you can tend to yours, in whatever ways we each see fit.

And, again, ftr, I have my tornado plan. I've practiced it before when they came close but not close enough to matter for my home. I also have my flood plan, in case it comes to that. You don't have to keep beating me over the head with the information about potential severe weather today. I'm plenty prepared. But, thanks for your concern.

How have I been on this forum for 10 years and people still don't know if I'm a man or a woman? Sheesh.

I (and I'm a woman, ftr) sometimes wish I could put my house on wheels and drive it out of my neighborhood. But, you're not concerned about flooding, I am. Neither of us is going to change our minds. I'll tend to mine, and you can tend to yours, in whatever ways we each see fit.

And, again, ftr, I have my tornado plan. I've practiced it before when they came close but not close enough to matter for my home. I also have my flood plan, in case it comes to that. You don't have to keep beating me over the head with the information about potential severe weather today. I'm plenty prepared. But, thanks for your concern.

How have I been on this forum for 10 years and people still don't know if I'm a man or a woman? Sheesh.

When I bought my home I made sure that WX flooding was never going to be even a remote issue.
I wish more people would do the same.

Does he/she live in a home that’s mobile?

He said property, not home

CH 4 just said the cap should hold until about 5 PM

He said property, not home

And he said she was a she

i think many people enjoy these threads because they are a great place to get information without added hype. let's try to keep sensationalism and sources that resort to sensationalism out of this thread. several users have voiced their concern about this. calm and rational discussion are welcome. drama and oneupsmanship are not. since venture started these threads, i'm happy to let him decide which sources are valid. if anybody wants to discuss different sources or have a general weather freak out, please start another thread.

-M

This goes against mmm's calm and rational discussion but if severe weather breaks out again I'm watching Channel 9 to watch them yell at each other again.

quite honestly, i don't have a dog in the hunt... seems as petty as when i had to step into a heated discussion about hamburger toppings. seriously. -M

When I bought my home I made sure that WX flooding was never going to be even a remote issue.
I wish more people would do the same.

And we did the same. Things change. Our neighbor had never had flooding issues, but her retaining wall in the backyard came crashing down in the flood back in June 2010. She never expected that to happen. It had been there since 1970 with no problems.

You can have an inspector for every reason come through a house, and problems are still missed. Or topography can change. Or you have more extreme weather. If the water gets high enough, it will find a way into your home.

But, back to regularly scheduled programming, I guess.

quite honestly, i don't have a dog in the hunt... seems as petty as when i had to step into a heated discussion about hamburger toppings. seriously. -M

lol I missed that one

i think many people enjoy these threads because they are a great place to get information without added hype. let's try to keep sensationalism and sources that resort to sensationalism out of this thread. several users have voiced their concern about this. calm and rational discussion are welcome. drama and oneupsmanship are not. since venture started these threads, i'm happy to let him decide which sources are valid. if anybody wants to discuss different sources or have a general weather freak out, please start another thread.

-MThank you. I will confine my post to weather sources that are just as reputable as any and that includes the largest independent TV weather source in the USA.

quite honestly, i don't have a dog in the hunt... seems as petty as when i had to step into a heated discussion about hamburger toppings. seriously. -M

lol People take their hamburger toppings very seriously ;)

And we did the same. Things change. Our neighbor had never had flooding issues, but her retaining wall in the backyard came crashing down in the flood back in June 2010. She never expected that to happen. It had been there since 1970 with no problems.

You can have an inspector for every reason come through a house, and problems are still missed. Or topography can change. Or you have more extreme weather. If the water gets high enough, it will find a way into your home.

But, back to regularly scheduled programming, I guess.

I have always picked some of the highest places to live in town with future development in mind so that it never becomes a problem no matter what anyone else does.

I have always picked some of the highest places to live in town with future development in mind so that it never becomes a problem no matter what anyone else does.

Well, you're just a champion of everything.

Well, you're just a champion of everything.

Hardly, but I have seen enough flooding to know enough to not buy anywhere near where it’s possible

Hardly, but I have seen enough flooding to know enough to not buy anywhere near where it’s possible

That's what Noah thought

That's what Noah thought

lol Look, our neighborhood didn't have a history of flooding. We can argue this up and down, but I know where I live, and I've talked to enough of the neighbors who have lived here a long time to know that this is a new problem. Next time, I'll be sure to consult a psychic, or you, before buying my next home.

Anywhere it's possible...so, basically...the entirety of OKC? With creeks, rivers, lakes everywhere? And storm drains that become overwhelmed in torrential, hours-long downpours? OKC is mostly flat. Flooding can happen pretty much anywhere in this city. Just like a tornado. Both are sometimes helpless incidents.

i think many people enjoy these threads because they are a great place to get information without added hype. let's try to keep sensationalism and sources that resort to sensationalism out of this thread. several users have voiced their concern about this. calm and rational discussion are welcome. drama and oneupsmanship are not. since venture started these threads, i'm happy to let him decide which sources are valid. if anybody wants to discuss different sources or have a general weather freak out, please start another thread.

-M

I'm fine with a graphic or a prediction if there is a explanation of the reasoning behind it. All of NOAA outlooks or watches have the detailed explanation posted. We could just say its the official government outlook or watch so just go with it, but we don't. This is the tone of discussion that venture is trying to promote here.

That's what Noah thought

I live almost on top of the crest of some of the highest property in west Norman.
It would darn near take a Noah like flood to get me. It really would and I planed it this way. :)

I live almost on top of the crest of some of the highest property in west Norman.
It would darn near take a Noah like flood to get me. It really would and I planed it this way. :)

Good for you but don't discount others who don't live on the mountaintop their concerns for flooding.

Good for you but don't discount others who don't live on the mountaintop their concerns for flooding.That’s a fair point. But flooding is still not the major consideration for the vast majority of us and even if it becomes an issue we have more pressing and serious WX issues to face first.

Only a couple of clouds this morning. Lack of instability will not be one of the limiting factors today.

I put my kid in the carpool noticing the clear sky...Took a shower and all the crap from the south had poured in.....Amazing all things change around here...and I've been here all my life.

When I bought my home I made sure that WX flooding was never going to be even a remote issue.
I wish more people would do the same.

Show a little compassion, man. I doubt you always make perfect choices in your life.

Show a little compassion, man. I doubt you always make perfect choices in your life.

Ok:)

And we did the same. Things change. Our neighbor had never had flooding issues, but her retaining wall in the backyard came crashing down in the flood back in June 2010. She never expected that to happen. It had been there since 1970 with no problems.

You can have an inspector for every reason come through a house, and problems are still missed. Or topography can change. Or you have more extreme weather. If the water gets high enough, it will find a way into your home.

But, back to regularly scheduled programming, I guess.

years after we bought our house, our foundation shifted and the slab separated from the stem wall. so now, on one side of our house whenever we get rain rates of about 2" an hour, we get water seeping into 3 rooms. that necessitates us pulling the carpet back and throwing out the carpet pad and drying out the rooms.

we've already got 2 french drains that usually take care of the problem, but some will get in the house. this rarely happens - once every couple of years, but when it does, it's a huge hassle.

so yeah, things change, and we never expected water to be an issue in our house.

Moving along.

Sort term model guidance still showing about 3PM to the time for convection to initiate. Outside right now we have decent heating taking place, some CU starting to develop over the area, and very rich moisture in place. Even with these winds and increasing temps, Dewpoints are still well into the low 70s now ahead of the front and dryline. Cold front hasn't really moved much and dryline is chilling out SW.

As we look at the estimated GOES sounding, CAPE is pretty well up there highlighting the instability building.

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/goes/soundings/gifs23L/cacp.gif

RAP model is highlighting a very high significant tornado index for later today in Central OK, increasing through the evening as the LLJ kicks in gear.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/15/SGP/rapSGP_con_stp_009.gif

The main thing today is just stay aware. Have your action plan ready to go. Storm motion may be a bit faster compared to yesterday...but still 30 mph give or take. Not 50-60 mph that would cause significant warning time issues. Movement today is going to be mainly east to ESE with the strongest storms.

years after we bought our house, our foundation shifted and the slab separated from the stem wall. so now, on one side of our house whenever we get rain rates of about 2" an hour, we get water seeping into 3 rooms. that necessitates us pulling the carpet back and throwing out the carpet pad and drying out the rooms.

we've already got 2 french drains that usually take care of the problem, but some will get in the house. this rarely happens - once every couple of years, but when it does, it's a huge hassle.

so yeah, things change, and we never expected water to be an issue in our house.

Thank you. I appreciate you sharing that. It's nice to know I'm not alone -- though I am very sorry that you have to deal with it. I'm about to the point that I want to rip up all the laminate and just do stained concrete flooring!

Venture, a weather question: It seems this year that we have this issue of fronts showing up and sticking around for days on end, causing multiple severe weather days in a row. With the years of drought, maybe my mind has just forgotten what a "real" spring is like here, but is that a "normal" weather pattern? Or are we just super-duper lucky this year?

Thanks, mmmm! I come to this discussion during severe weather for exactly the reason you described. I want sound, solid information without the "OMGTHESKYISFALLING" factor of TV. If I wanted the hype, I would go to TWC for their TORCON scale, or do our bedazzle-tied local guys. The additional explanations as to why these weather patterns emerge is also interesting. I've recommended this board to lots of people so who also prefer to take their weather straight - no chaser. If and when the storms fire up - then I'll listen to the dramatics on TV. Until then, I really appreciate the collected manner in which this thread is handled.

Kudos to Venture, Anonymous the the others who provide the data for us. You're doing a great service to us all.

Venture, a weather question: It seems this year that we have this issue of fronts showing up and sticking around for days on end, causing multiple severe weather days in a row. With the years of drought, maybe my mind has just forgotten what a "real" spring is like here, but is that a "normal" weather pattern? Or are we just super-duper lucky this year?

Pretty much. It is pretty rare this time of year to get fronts to push all the way through, so they normally move in and wash out. We haven't really had them wash out much though lately and still push through.

Law of averages rules nature. Everything must balance out and after years of drought we were bound to get a wet period again.

Has Aaron Tuttle gone off the deep end with his thoughts?
https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

I wanted to make a quick comment on being prepared. Last week we got a good reminder of what can happen when things go wrong. Not saying we can expect the same today, but we just need to be ready.

With that, have a "Go Bag" ready to go. Those in the airline industry are pretty familiar with them when it comes to the "Go Teams" that respond to incidents. Have a bag with some clothes, toiletries, important documents, and one I always ad...an external USB hard drive with a backup of all the important things from my computers. Have it by the door if you need to leave or in your shelter. Should things go bad...you at least have what you need to start putting things back together.

This thread gives us all the information we need without ugly weather neckties, Dominators or corporate-sponsored chase vehicles and helicopters.

I love this place!

Has Aaron Tuttle gone off the deep end with his thoughts?
https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

his comments

MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IMMINENT!!! (Please Share)

I don't often get worked up over events. There are times when all of the parameters are there and very little happens, generally because the models underestimate the CAP strength which prevents thunderstorm development. You better pray they aren't estimating this one correctly because the rest of the ingredients are all there for large damaging tornadoes between the hours of 6pm and midnight across C OK. This includes the greater OKC metro area. I hate seeing this. That said, I want each of you to take this seriously. Don't panic, have a plan, you can and will survive tornadoes as long as you take shelter. Keep your weather radios and smartphone apps ready. Remember, once tornadoes start moving into the city, cell phone networks will become overloaded so getting out phone calls and weather data will be stressed, text messages are better. If destruction happens and that is a very high possibility, then communication is severed. It is hard to remove emotion when I see the environment set up like this knowing that another Moore-like event is about to unfold. Now that I have your attention here is the forecast below.

A dryline sets up again just to the west of OKC near Weatherford this afternoon. A weak cold front outflow approaches from the north and sets up near Guthrie to Kingfisher. Storms will fire along both boundaries by 5pm. A region of low pressure will eject from the S TX panhandle into WC OK during the late evening hours. This forces the surface winds up to 2,000 to back to the east while the winds above curve to the west. In addition after 6pm the low level jet increases those winds speeds to 50 kts above ground causing the shear values to approach helicity values of 800 which is off the scale. With instability remaining extremely high as CAPE values peak around 6,000 earlier in the afternoon, the stage is set for near dark and nighttime tornadoes across C OK through midnight. I see more of a May 3rd, 1999 type event with slow moving tornadoes and numerous ones, several EF3s to 5. It's hard to imagine that this is what the data shows. So what needs to happen to prevent this? Read next paragraph.

So tornadic conditions are maximized across C OK. That doesn't mean other areas of the state especially E of I-35 or S OK won't see them, anywhere is fair game. So, if we can get storms to form early, say by 3pm and move through C OK before the better shear gets in place any tornado threat will be minimized as much as possible considering the environment. Also, if we can get a cluster of storms to form along the boundary to the north and those move south that helps a little too. Anything to prevent storms from becoming isolated from the others. Finally if we can get a big cluster of storms to form across S/SC OK that can disrupt the air to the north across the metro reducing instability and causing subsidence and messing up the low level wind fields. So those are the contingencies that need to take place to limit the tornado threat. If none of those happen, well, then you better pray that the models are wrong.

I'll try to post updates today, may get tied up in the field and especially if communication becomes an issue. As much as many of you hate the drama on the local TV news stations, today will be one of those days where it's actually going to be life saving.

"Don't panic...but i'm going to type in all caps and use lots of exclamation marks!!!!"

Sheesh.

People are going to be on edge enough without the drama. Be Prepared. Stay aware. Everything will be fine.

New outlook should be out about now........

Moderate Risk covers a bigger area of Central OK now.