Merry Christmas all!

As we start to get into the mode for some potential winter weather, I figured I'd come back out of the real world and make a post.

Looking at New Years Eve and Day for some winter weather in the state. Main impacts right now will be snow/sleet out west and rain central and east. Depending on the ability for the snow to change over quickly will have a huge impact, as always, on the snowfall potential to the west. Below's link to a Google map gives you an idea of where the currently thinking is.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.00049843901ec57f9e3fb&z=7

Right now it does not appear to be a major impact for Central Oklahoma as we will stay a bit too warm early on. When temps do fall, it does appear we will be dry slotted very quickly and cut off any precip. However, this also tends to allow freezing drizzle to develop so we may have to watch out for that.

I was pretty generous with the snowfall coverage area in relation to the mixed precip area, but you can easily move that area further west for the 31st. NE Oklahoma may be able to change over to move winter precip, but the storm will be pulling away quickly to keep things under control there.

Will update as we get closer.

Upcoming Winter Weather Opportunities:
- January 7th (Northern OK)
- January 8th (Northern OK)

Welcome back--finally. Thanks a lot.

Hi Venture. Nice to see you. How is it looking on the 5th?

Welcome back, Scottie! You were on quite a long vacation. :-)

That might produce a bit of a hit on Opening Night and its fireworks display

I hope you're right about it being NOK on the 8th. That's grand babies coming to stay a while day.

Updated the map again this morning to remove most of the snow chances for New Year's Eve. Models were pretty consistent through yesterday with this solution, so will go with it. Will update any longer term snow chances later today.

A much nicer outlook. Thanks for the head's up

Looks like things are headed south for next week. Interested to see what Venture thinks. This from the NWS.............

NOTE THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE A 500-MB HIGH OF
AROUND 580HPA OVER ALASKA BY TUE 11 JAN. NOT A GOOD SIGN - NASTY
THINGS USUALLY HAPPEN IN TERMS OF COLD AND SNOW/ICE IN PATTERNS LIKE
THIS... NOT ONLY AROUND HERE BUT IN MANY PARTS OF THE LOWER 48. NEXT
WEEK MAY BE INTERESTING IN A NUMBER OF WAYS.

Waiting on the evening run before I put stuff together, but in two words...Winter Arrives.

18Z GFS is crazy with the huge dumping of cold air coming in.

10 day on weather.com looks nice thru the 11th...Can't remember the last time we made it that far w/o some fun stuff falling down

Scottie, cold is good, but we want the serious blizzard stuff. Ya know.... Pluffy white everywhere. Cars spinnin' n grindin'. Lights flickerin' and all that. :-)

Who the hell is Scottie? :-P

Who the hell is Scottie? :-P

I think he was the person who beamed up Captain Kirk.

Who the hell is Scottie? :-P

A special nickname I have for you...for years now. :-D

Okay, no maps just yet...ran out of time tonight. So here we go. Disclaimer as usual...also temp forecasts can get very crazy this far out when it is first major arctic outbreak of the season.

January 9th
Light to moderate ran will move in from the SW over most of OK. Temps mostly in the mid to upper 30s, but cooling down to the north. Change over to snow looks probable from North Central into Eastern Oklahoma. Very light, less than 1-2" possible. in snow. Up to a half inch of rain though from SW into SC OK. Central sections could see a dusting to an inch of snow from this. Most of the heavy snow will be east into AR & MS.

January 10th to 12th
Most precip exits except for some light flurries or light snow scattered across the state. Nothing major...maybe a half inch in some spots. Enough to hopefully brighten up the dead grass. During this period, the arctic door begins to open and highs will start to trend down. By the 12th we will be well below freezing through most of the state.

January 14th
Major push of cold air is in the Midwest and Rockies, where temps will struggle to get above zero (lets alone warmer than 10 below) in many locals. Storm system moves in from the west will bring precip early to Western OK. All precip from this point forward will likely be snow, as cold air will control all levels above us so freezing rain and ice should be very minimal - thankfully. Am totals look like around an inch or so in the western 1/3rd of the state. Light snow will continue across the entire state through the day, a general accumulation of 2-3 inches looks good.

January 15th
Storm picks up moisture from the Gulf and will have two focused areas of heavier precip. One is in the TX panhandle to NM, the other in Eastern OK to AR/MS/TN. Temps generally in the mid to upper 20s with a decent east wind early. Snow will be moderate through most of the day picking up a general area of 3-5 inches through the AM and another 1-3 inches in the PM. So generally look for a widespread healthy snowfall of 4 to 8 inches, up to 10-12 inches in far Eastern OK and up to 10" in far SW OK. Wind doesn't appear to be an issue though, basically 10 to 20 mph...with the higher gusts in the PM out of the north.

January 16th
Light snow will continue as a major snow storm blasts the eastern 1/3rd of the country. Maybe a very light 1/2 inch of snow possible early. Otherwise, the coldest air arrives finally. If this verifies, temps will range morning lows of 5-10 below in NW OK to 5 to 10 above in SE OK. Afternoon "highs" will range from Zero in southern OK to 10 below in NE OK.

January 17th
Coldest night we've probably seen in awhile if this happens. Likely a clear night with a fresh snow pack. Morning lows will be 5 below to Zero in the south to 15 to 20 below Central and North. Now, I personally don't buy this...but it could happen. The GFS is hinting at some areas getting closer to 30 below. Something like that hasn't been seen since the state set the all time low record of 27 below on...well how about that...January 18th (off by a day) 1930. If this even gets close to verifying, this could be very bad news for the area as houses around here definitely aren't built for this type of cold and the electric meters are going to be spinning like mad. Afternoon highs look to be from the balmy upper teens in the west to 5 to 10 below zero in the east.

January 18th
Temps rebound some. WARM FRONT! Still clear and dry. Lows from 5 to 10...ABOVE! in the south to 5 to 10 below in the North and Northeast. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the upper teens to mid 20s throughout the state. Get out the shorts.

Again, long range models love to get crazy with cold air...so these temps will likely be modified a bunch, but it looks like we have a cold January on the way.

Morning Discussion from OUN...


MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.

GFS are well known to hit it head on and '09 Christmas showed that.

So...when temperatures get that cold, what do you do about pipes? Guess I might invest in some sort of insulation for outside faucets...

Morning GFS run backed away from the insane frigid numbers, but looks like an extended period of below freezing weather is on the way for most of the country. Snowfall amounts are also cut down a ton, so this probably goes hand in hand. Of course, we are talking almost 2 weeks out...this is going to flip flop 34 times between now and then.

So...when temperatures get that cold, what do you do about pipes? Guess I might invest in some sort of insulation for outside faucets...

There are foam covers you can get for outside faucets. Depending on where the pipes in your home run, if temps ever get that cold, leaving them drop slightly helps to ensure they won't freeze up. Hopefully it is just GFS having an "OH GOD" moment and will become more reasonable. Otherwise, we'd see a lot of broken water pipes, electric grip strain, and a toll on human life from a different element we aren't use to.

Scottie, you make it funny when you implied that the GFS is actually a living being. A life form. :-)

As for everyone with fish tanks, aquariums, and all those fishies... I have started a topic on our Oklahoma Aquarium Association's forum to list the precautions we should be doing to be prepared for the upcoming outbreak. The topic is here >>> http://www.theokaa.org/vb40/showthread.php?8599-Winter-Weather <<< as I had kick-started it and more people will post to add in their suggestions/plans.

Also, keep in mind of our furry children outside and the oldie humans.

we can get some snow this monday

Putting together some precip forecasts for the nearer term based on the 18Z GFS model. Everything is done through Google Maps to make it easy to update when I have time.

January 9th Precip Forecast (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498ebc160592af9502&ll=35.808904,-97.207031&spn=7.499321,14.27124&z=7)

January 10th Precip Forecast (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498f969d78c4da1f1f&ll=35.308401,-98.657227&spn=7.546162,14.27124&z=7)

January 11th Precip Forecast (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498f96b6192593defd&ll=34.795762,-96.965332&spn=7.59354,14.27124&z=7)

The 18Z GFS does keep the bulk of the massive cold air up in Canada now and rebounds temps in OK towards the 18th & 19th...so we'll just have to wait and see how this works out. Long term stuff, definitely very iffy on how it plays out so we will just have to take it day by day.

Let's hope you keep mentioning this crap along with long term...lol

I know we are in a drought but I have a 30 mile commute each way and would love a completely non eventful winter

I click on the dates and google maps comes up, but there is nothing there but a map of Oklahoma.

Let's hope you keep mentioning this crap along with long term...lol

I know we are in a drought but I have a 30 mile commute each way and would love a completely non eventful winter

Yeah I was there with you, until I said to hell with spending an hour on the road each way. :) I would like a little snow personally. Just a couple days with a few inches on the ground to cover up the dead grass. A good snow pack would also help with fire weather as we progress through winter.


I click on the dates and google maps comes up, but there is nothing there but a map of Oklahoma.

I just tried it on a different system and they still worked. Not sure why they aren't displaying correctly. Are you seeing the key off to the left at all?

When I clicked on them I got a blank Ok map but when I hit the back button, the forecast popped up.

Alright. Google must just be acting up a bit tonight.

When I clicked on them I got a blank Ok map but when I hit the back button, the forecast popped up.

Tried it again, then hit the back button and got the forecast. Thanks.

GFS is in ping pong mode. 00Z run eliminates the snow chances next week. Aggressive with temps again around the 17th. Morning lows, a bit more "reasonable" with temps below zero throughout the entire state. Southern & Western OK will be zero to 5 below. Rest of the state will be 5 to 10 below, except for far northeast OK will be 10 to 15 below. Highs will range from 5 below to 0 in the Northeast to 10 to 15 above in the west.

Prior to the arctic air getting here, snow looks possible...again. Again, ping pong contest. It looks like a general decent snow of 3 to 5 inches across most of the state. Of course that will change during the next run in 6 hours. LOL

I'll post more updates later this week as we get closer, and hopefully more stable in the runs.

First things first. Computer models are always wrong. The question is to what degree? It is one thing to forecast a change to much cooler weather beyond 7 days, it's another to try and forecast specific snow amounts. The complexity of the atmosphere is too great to resolve beyond a few days, and sometimes even a few hours.

You've got me wonderin' whether I should go ahead and reschedule an all day road trip Jan 13 to/frm Topeka.
On the one hand, decent highway all the way. On the other hand, lots of lonely stretches.

First things first. Computer models are always wrong. The question is to what degree? It is one thing to forecast a change to much cooler weather beyond 7 days, it's another to try and forecast specific snow amounts. The complexity of the atmosphere is too great to resolve beyond a few days, and sometimes even a few hours.

Umm...duh? lol There is always a level of error in every model forecast. Which is why there is always a disclaimer on everything. :) Welcome to the board Capt. Obvious. ;)


You've got me wonderin' whether I should go ahead and reschedule an all day road trip Jan 13 to/frm Topeka.
On the one hand, decent highway all the way. On the other hand, lots of lonely stretches.

It's way to early to even think of that in my opinion. If one thing, I pointing out just how rough it is to pin point an accurate forecast this far out since things bounce back and forth a lot.

Scottie, referring to your earlier comment about the GFS having an OMG moment, do you believe that GFS can be a living intelligent being? There is a point when machines constantly learn and evolve into an intelligence of self awareness. Basically a life form in progress. I wonder what these machines (the weather models) is thinking other than forecasting weather. The machines are slowly taking over our world and that is a fact.

Scottie, referring to your earlier comment about the GFS having an OMG moment, do you believe that GFS can be a living intelligent being? There is a point when machines constantly learn and evolve into an intelligence of self awareness. Basically a life form in progress. I wonder what these machines (the weather models) is thinking other than forecasting weather. The machines are slowly taking over our world and that is a fact.So, see, I Robot, if you haven't already. It's a good movie. In the future, people will fear robots taking over their jobs more than human immigrants.

So back on topic. From OUN this afternoon.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
302 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

...TURNING MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN
END TO THE CURRENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER.

IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVING... A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS A RAIN SNOW MIX TO PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PRECIPITATION
MAY TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON AND ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING AND WINDS CHILLS BELOW ZERO. THESE COLD CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN
PREPARING NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD
CONDITIONS. PROVIDE WATER AND SHELTER TO OUTSIDE PETS... AND PROTECT
PIPES AS THE EXTENDED COLD COULD RESULT IN SOME BECOMING FROZEN.
ALSO IF TRAVELING... TAKE ALONG BLANKETS AND COLD WEATHER GEAR IN CA
SE YOU BECOME STRANDED.


YOU CAN MONITOR THE NWS WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

Umm...duh? lol There is always a level of error in every model forecast. Which is why there is always a disclaimer on everything. :) Welcome to the board Capt. Obvious. ;)

It's way to early to even think of that in my opinion. If one thing, I pointing out just how rough it is to pin point an accurate forecast this far out since things bounce back and forth a lot.

Then why do you give detailed forecasts beyond a few days?

Disclaimer? What I've seen mentioned are very detailed forecasts for specific points well beyond a reasonable time period for any computer model to "accurately" predict. Why not just run the GFS out another 2 or 3 weeks? It's well known the GFS has no appreciable skill beyond about 5 days. You might as well go with climate. I think it's incredibly irresponsible to be giving detailed forecasts beyond a few days. General trends, yes.

Then why do you give detailed forecasts beyond a few days?

Disclaimer? What I've seen mentioned are very detailed forecasts for specific points well beyond a reasonable time period for any computer model to "accurately" predict. Why not just run the GFS out another 2 or 3 weeks? It's well known the GFS has no appreciable skill beyond about 5 days. You might as well go with climate. I think it's incredibly irresponsible to be giving detailed forecasts beyond a few days. General trends, yes.

Why forecast at all? Forecast for weather the following day or hours are busted many times. By your logic, there really isn't any point to it. I guess bitterness reigns in your little world.

I understand you are here to troll, considering you've manage to contribute 3 posts over 3 months of being here...so honestly I shouldn't give you the time of day. However, I'll play ball this once before you crawl back into your hole. Yes the outlooks I post are detailed in some aspect, but are meant only to show what the models are thinking at that certain time. If you had been around longer, which obviously you haven't been (unlike the majority of the people that participate in these monthly threads), you would see that my point is also to bring a different side to all the forecasts people see. They bitch and moan about this guy busting that, or this one calling for the end of the world...so what I do is break down several runs showing just how unstable they can be...but also how sometimes you can get a very accurate forecast 2 weeks out. However, over the period to get there the models may do a bunch of loops and u-turns until it comes back to the original solution.

Is the GFS garbage in the longer term? At times yes. Its when it starts agreeing with the ECMWF and others is when I'll start tossing it a bone. However, you are missing the point. I look at as a form of showing what could possible happen in the longer term - not what exactly would happen. Does it bother you that I've put a map or two together that you can zoom in on and get a pin point forecast? Apparently. Will those forecast maps be right? 90% of the time no. However, when that 10% happens it makes it interesting to see what was going on then to make the forecast solution and why the other times there were issues. It is also nice to have a discussion thread that tracks the trends of the forecast models to see where they start and their journey to the solution. More information that can be used down the road on how to interpret "major headline making" scenarios when they first start to appear.

Is it irresponsible to post this? No. It is my opinion, always has been, and my relaying of what that particular model run is showing. What people do with it is their own thing. I don't come here representing any organization in any official capacity, which either you wish you did or perhaps you do and are all pissy that some no name on a message board comes across better than you? Now if I worked in an official capacity and this wasn't a hobby, then yes I would be much more conservative in what I put out...but this is a discussion forum. If you want to get technical, go to Stormtrack.

With that, I'll consider this matter closed and understand your quick return to lurking on the board. You are more than welcome to contribute and provide insight instead of coming across a troll with a bruised ego and sore behind. I would also welcome you to search this board history through the years on the weather discussions we have had to understand the basis and nature of them. Coming in here on a high horse assuming that this is something that is not, is only going to make you look like more a moron than you already are.

Again, welcome to the board and feel free to jump in with your opinion or interpretation of the weather. Just understand what you are getting into before making snap judgements.

Why forecast at all? Forecast for weather the following day or hours are busted many times. By your logic, there really isn't any point to it. I guess bitterness reigns in your little world.

I understand you are here to troll, considering you've manage to contribute 3 posts over 3 months of being here...so honestly I shouldn't give you the time of day. However, I'll play ball this once before you crawl back into your hole. Yes the outlooks I post are detailed in some aspect, but are meant only to show what the models are thinking at that certain time. If you had been around longer, which obviously you haven't been (unlike the majority of the people that participate in these monthly threads), you would see that my point is also to bring a different side to all the forecasts people see. They bitch and moan about this guy busting that, or this one calling for the end of the world...so what I do is break down several runs showing just how unstable they can be...but also how sometimes you can get a very accurate forecast 2 weeks out. However, over the period to get there the models may do a bunch of loops and u-turns until it comes back to the original solution.

Is the GFS garbage in the longer term? At times yes. Its when it starts agreeing with the ECMWF and others is when I'll start tossing it a bone. However, you are missing the point. I look at as a form of showing what could possible happen in the longer term - not what exactly would happen. Does it bother you that I've put a map or two together that you can zoom in on and get a pin point forecast? Apparently. Will those forecast maps be right? 90% of the time no. However, when that 10% happens it makes it interesting to see what was going on then to make the forecast solution and why the other times there were issues. It is also nice to have a discussion thread that tracks the trends of the forecast models to see where they start and their journey to the solution. More information that can be used down the road on how to interpret "major headline making" scenarios when they first start to appear.

Is it irresponsible to post this? No. It is my opinion, always has been, and my relaying of what that particular model run is showing. What people do with it is their own thing. I don't come here representing any organization in any official capacity, which either you wish you did or perhaps you do and are all pissy that some no name on a message board comes across better than you? Now if I worked in an official capacity and this wasn't a hobby, then yes I would be much more conservative in what I put out...but this is a discussion forum. If you want to get technical, go to Stormtrack.

With that, I'll consider this matter closed and understand your quick return to lurking on the board. You are more than welcome to contribute and provide insight instead of coming across a troll with a bruised ego and sore behind. I would also welcome you to search this board history through the years on the weather discussions we have had to understand the basis and nature of them. Coming in here on a high horse assuming that this is something that is not, is only going to make you look like more a moron than you already are.

Again, welcome to the board and feel free to jump in with your opinion or interpretation of the weather. Just understand what you are getting into before making snap judgements.

The outlooks you give are indeed very detailed. Accurate though? Most often not. The problem is you pick one single deterministic run of the GFS. Why? These computer models have many variants that give other solutions. They don't just give one solution. Why not use an ensemble approach? I believe the reason you value the ECMWF is due to the ensemble nature of that model.

Meant to say The computer models are very detailed not "The outlooks you give...". Sorry.

madfcstr, I believe you are dealing with a case of jealousy. Venture is one of the most respected weather man on board here. We all appreciate what he has done for us with time and effort to detail these things and to help us understand more clearly than the overboard weather men on television. Also, Venture is not just focusing on one computer model. There are several others that he usually bring into discussion. I believe you are completely misunderstanding him and the whole purpose of his effort on here.

Venture has not commit any irresponsible action on here. As he had said, he was only detailing what the models was saying at each time along with his personal opinions and experience. You honestly can not question him...ever. No one is perfect and obviously no machine is perfect, but there is no harm in day-by-day discussion regarding the models and the overall weather.

madfcstr, I believe you are dealing with a case of jealousy. Venture is one of the most respected weather man on board here. We all appreciate what he has done for us with time and effort to detail these things and to help us understand more clearly than the overboard weather men on television. Also, Venture is not just focusing on one computer model. There are several others that he usually bring into discussion. I believe you are completely misunderstanding him and the whole purpose of his effort on here.

Venture has not commit any irresponsible action on here. As he had said, he was only detailing what the models was saying at each time along with his personal opinions and experience. You honestly can not question him...ever. No one is perfect and obviously no machine is perfect, but there is no harm in day-by-day discussion regarding the models and the overall weather.

Fair enough Thunder. My apologies Venture; no offense intended. Carry on with the weather discussion.

Venture isn't doing anything the weather channel hasn't done--my "my page" is showing a "special weather statement" just like the one above. People in Oklahoma like to talk about the weather, even when nothing's happening yet. The fact that so much can change so quickly is what makes the weather here interesting and a point of discussion. I like knowing that there is a possibility that this could happen. Last year, venture started telling us about the models and the large snow they were predicting. I went out to Home Depot, sick as a dog, to get snow shovels and ice melt, figuring it would be a lost cause but that someday, we just might use those shovels.

Someday was 2 days later.

Fair enough Thunder. My apologies Venture; no offense intended. Carry on with the weather discussion.
Apologies are few and far between on OKC Talk. Your willingness to apologize is refreshing indeed. If we all could give respect it would create a healthier forum. Much thanks...

Apologies are few and far between on OKC Talk. Your willingness to apologize is refreshing indeed. If we all could give respect it would create a healthier forum. Much thanks...

Very much so.

Madfcstr, thank you for the apology. Look forward to having another perspective on the weather joining these discussions we have.

so i have been hearing about ice and snow, does anybody know how many inches they are predicting yet?

With the possibility of frozen water lines or busted water mains all over town. Keep several gallons of water stored back, I recomend the large 7 gal blue aqua jugs from Wallyworld or Academy. Also keep enough water to flush your toilet by refilling the tank if needed.

stock up on gear now. de-icer and other stuff, it might be bad but i think the temps is what will hurt us.., stocking up on water is a good idea, remember keep your neighbors in mind, especially the elderly (even though some of them can run circles around me)

Timing is still up in the air a bit with the cold air the upcoming system. There is still disagreement a few days out on where the initial rainfall and such will occur. Once the evening models are in I'll post some more thoughts. :)

Weather.com keeps downplaying Monday...now have it at high of 40 with few snow showers

Won't the ground temps be still too warm on Monday to have a road condition problem anyway?

Weather.com keeps downplaying Monday...now have it at high of 40 with few snow showers

Won't the ground temps be still too warm on Monday to have a road condition problem anyway?

Weather.com is junk. Case closed. It is best to rely on our local NWS and Venture on here.

Accuweather has a similar forecast for Monday...Definitely listen to Venture but like to glance at numerous sites when deciding whether to get ready or not

Here is a quick run down based on what things are looking like tonight.

January 9, 2011 (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498ebc160592af9502&ll=35.308586,-98.659974&spn=15.074213,28.54248&t=h&z=6)
Precip type is going to be contingent on how fast the cold air gets here. I went with mostly liquid only from I-40 and south. A mix from I-40 north except for NW OK which could be mostly snow. Amounts should be less than 2" of the white stuff in most locals, liquid accumulation will be very light. If cold air moves in faster, a change over will happen quickly closer to the city. Temps Low to Mid 30s.

January 10, 2011 (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498f969d78c4da1f1f&ll=35.386104,-98.757477&spn=7.538653,14.27124&t=h&z=7)
More of a general snowfall for the area. Temps do appear that they will be cold for all snow here. There may be a mix along the Red River. Snow totals should remain light, nothing over 3" from the way it looks. Roughly 1" or less I-40 south, and 1-2" from I-40 north. NC OK may see up to 3" in spots. Temps Mid 20s to Low 30s.

January 11th is looking mostly dry, so nothing to show there. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 12th may see light snow showers/flurries across the northern half of the state. Don't expect much more than a nice winter scene. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 13th sees more of the same, just a bit further east. Mid 20s to Mid 30s.

14th - Maybe some light rain east. Lows in the 30s, highs near 50.

15th - Flurries or light snow spread around, mainly east. Highs 40s & 50s early falling to 20s in the afternoon.

16th - Light snow, mainly Northern 1/3rd of OK. Temps mainly in the 20s, lows in Northern OK in the single digits.

17th - Light snow in the Red River valley. Temps mostly 20s, some teens and single digits North.

18th - Dry. Temps 20s to 30s.

19th - Dry. Morning temps in 20s, upper 30s and low 40s in afternoon.

20th - Light snow NE OK. Temps in Low 30s falling into the 20s.

21st - Dry. Lows in the teens, highs 20s and 30s.

Here is a quick run down based on what things are looking like tonight.

January 9, 2011 (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498ebc160592af9502&ll=35.308586,-98.659974&spn=15.074213,28.54248&t=h&z=6)
Precip type is going to be contingent on how fast the cold air gets here. I went with mostly liquid only from I-40 and south. A mix from I-40 north except for NW OK which could be mostly snow. Amounts should be less than 2" of the white stuff in most locals, liquid accumulation will be very light. If cold air moves in faster, a change over will happen quickly closer to the city. Temps Low to Mid 30s.

January 10, 2011 (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498f969d78c4da1f1f&ll=35.386104,-98.757477&spn=7.538653,14.27124&t=h&z=7)
More of a general snowfall for the area. Temps do appear that they will be cold for all snow here. There may be a mix along the Red River. Snow totals should remain light, nothing over 3" from the way it looks. Roughly 1" or less I-40 south, and 1-2" from I-40 north. NC OK may see up to 3" in spots. Temps Mid 20s to Low 30s.

January 11th is looking mostly dry, so nothing to show there. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 12th may see light snow showers/flurries across the northern half of the state. Don't expect much more than a nice winter scene. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 13th sees more of the same, just a bit further east. Mid 20s to Mid 30s.

14th - Maybe some light rain east. Lows in the 30s, highs near 50.

15th - Flurries or light snow spread around, mainly east. Highs 40s & 50s early falling to 20s in the afternoon.

16th - Light snow, mainly Northern 1/3rd of OK. Temps mainly in the 20s, lows in Northern OK in the single digits.

17th - Light snow in the Red River valley. Temps mostly 20s, some teens and single digits North.

18th - Dry. Temps 20s to 30s.

19th - Dry. Morning temps in 20s, upper 30s and low 40s in afternoon.

20th - Light snow NE OK. Temps in Low 30s falling into the 20s.

21st - Dry. Lows in the teens, highs 20s and 30s.

That sounds like fairly normal January weather to me so it's nothing to get too worked up about. I don't see any mention of the sub zero highs we were hearing about earlier.

The two systems is really close with the timing...one arriving on Sunday and the other just next day on Monday. Do you see any indication of the first system slowing down? What is the likeliness of the first system slowing down and meet with the second system on Monday? And do you see any possible hint that a third system pop up out of nowhere (maybe somewhere in Texas) similar to what we had seen a few years ago with two systems giving us major snowstorm? What is really interesting is the timing of the two systems. And do you think the second system will keep tracking down toward us or keep on current forecasted track through Kansas? What are you seeing with the moisture count for Monday? Any surge from that to boost the snowfall totals?

That sounds like fairly normal January weather to me so it's nothing to get too worked up about. I don't see any mention of the sub zero highs we were hearing about earlier.

Yeah...nothing too bad from the way it looks now.

Accuweather has a similar forecast for Monday...Definitely listen to Venture but like to glance at numerous sites when deciding whether to get ready or not

My cousin is a weather forecaster in Kansas. He says that they like to call Accuweather, Pukeuweather. I find that highly amusing!

Overall forecast for the main snow day, Monday, looks goods. May need to bump amounts up a hair...but not much. Will wait for this evening before any changes.

Going to reduce Monday's snowfall forecast quite a bit. Majority of the activity will remain in Kansas, with Northern OK seeing some light to moderate snow.

Going to reduce Monday's snowfall forecast quite a bit. Majority of the activity will remain in Kansas, with Northern OK seeing some light to moderate snow.

Would it be a pain to extend your anticipated snowfall amounts on into central/eastern Kansas? For next week, I'm about interested in the snow/ice projections between Blackwell and the Topeka/Levenworth/Atchison area as I am for the metro?