Sunset Amphitheater

[btmec]

hypothetical

[CatholicSooner]

Could the new all purpose soccer arena not serve this purpose ?

[SEMIweather]

I think the model is actually really solid, and in some ways should be very scalable. It's not necessarily pie in the sky, but they're going to need to execute really well and have some things break their way.

If they actually get 3-5 of these off the ground in the next few years, they could definitely turn some heads across every market. It's basically turning a venue into a chain and that has never been done before.

House of Blues has done this, albeit at a smaller capacity level.

[Pete]

I found a Youtube video that breaks down the return on investment for the firepit suites.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bOv_rZ60t4

They are using 60 shows per year as their baseline. For comparison, Paycom Center (a completely enclosed venue) averages about 30 shows a year. Dos Equis Pavillion (amphitheater) in Dallas -- a much larger market and established venue -- averages about 40 shows per year.

They are also assuming you can sell all the tickets for each of the 60 shows at an average of $147 per seat.

So, for a $500K investment, using these numbers you would generate $70,560 a year which equates to a 14.1% annual return. Then, they don't show their numbers on "your portion of $7 for every ticket sold" for 'base rent' but their calculations add $26,593 per year (and you have to assume they are using the 60 show number in their projections), which brings you to 19.4% return.

I would assume you would have to report the ticket revenue and probably the base rent as income on your taxes.

But there is no way they are going to book 60 shows a year and also no way you could expect to sell every ticket to every one of those shows for an average of $147, especially if you had to do it for all 60 concerts; that's 480 tickets a year to sell.

And, they only show returns based on these projections, not a range from worst to best and then most likely, which is the standard for any business investment.

[Teo9969]

One thing about this in OKC: The best time for fire pits is either tornado season or football season.

[Pete]

Also, here is what they are selling in OKC for just the suites:

(6) 10-person fire pits suites @ $650K per = $3.9 million
(58) 8-person fire pit suites @ $500K per = $29.0 million
(138) 4-person fire pit suites @ $275K per = $37.95 million
(156) Owner's Club suites @ $62.5K per = $9.75 million

Total = $80.6 million

So, they say the entire project will cost $100 million and they will take in $80 million for less than 10% (about 1,232 seats) of the total capacity of 12,500.

It's the same deal in Broken Arrow but they are in line to get about $28 million in public incentives.

Pretty sweet deal for the developers -- no wonder they are pushing hard and spending so much money on advertising.

[bison34]

Also, here is what they are selling in OKC for just the suites:

(6) 10-person fire pits suites @ $650K per = $3.9 million
(58) 8-person fire pit suites @ $500K per = $29.0 million
(138) 4-person fire pit suites @ $275K per = $37.95 million
(156) Owner's Club suites @ $62.5K per = $9.75 million

Total = $80.6 million

So, they say the entire project will cost $100 million and they will take in $80 million for less than 10% (about 1,232 seats) of the total capacity of 12,500.

It's the same deal in Broken Arrow but they are in line to get about $28 million in public incentives.

Pretty sweet deal for the developers -- no wonder they are pushing hard and spending so much money on advertising.

I wonder if OKC will come in with incentives. An outdoor amphitheater is majorly needed in the Metro, and seeing the Tulsa area get one instead of OKC would be a blow to the concert scene in OKC for 8 months a year.

[Pete]

I wonder if OKC will come in with incentives. An outdoor amphitheater is majorly needed in the Metro, and seeing the Tulsa area get one instead of OKC would be a blow to the concert scene in OKC for 8 months a year.

That's another thing... BOTH the Mustang and Broken Arrow amphitheaters are going to average 60 shows a year, every year?

That is exactly what the Sunset pitch says in trying to sell these suites.

We already know that very few if any acts that will fill 12,500 seats are going to play both OKC and Tulsa, so that means they will need to book 120 unique acts every year (and within a 6-month window) in the state of Oklahoma. This entire thing seems completely implausible.

[jn1780]

I wonder if OKC will come in with incentives. An outdoor amphitheater is majorly needed in the Metro, and seeing the Tulsa area get one instead of OKC would be a blow to the concert scene in OKC for 8 months a year.

If they gave realistic numbers to potential investors from the beginning then maybe OKC should have considered incentives. Now? Forget about it. I wouldn't worry too much about what happens in Tulsa. It would be even harder to find enough acts to fill their amphitheater up there.

[BDP]

We already know that very few if any acts that will fill 12,500 seats are going to play both OKC and Tulsa, so that means they will need to book 120 unique acts every year (and within a 6-month window) in the state of Oklahoma. This entire thing seems completely implausible.

I don't think 120 shows even exist at this scale most years, It's getting harder to get deeper rankings from Pollstar without paying for it, but I did find this from 2019. According to that data, of the top 100 tours in 2019, just 31 of them averaged between 9k and 13k. There's probably a lot of acts that would play both markets, but not every time / every year. This already happens between the two arenas, but the dates are often on opposite sides of the tour, or they flip cities on the next one.

But this is a big reason why, as you pointed out, most venues of this size don't average 60 shows a year, even in the biggest markets. There simply isn't the inventory. And even if these amphitheaters could manage to book 60 in a year, a good chunk of that would have to be siphoned from other established venues in the market. It would probably have to do that just to get to 40.

[CatholicSooner]

You can also invest in this by buying into the ipo right?

[mugofbeer]

You can also invest in this by buying into the ipo right?

Their TV ads in Denver say you must be an "accredited investor" (> $1 million and an experienced investor) to participate in the IPO.

[Swake]

Their TV ads in Denver say you must be an "accredited investor" (> $1 million and an experienced investor) to participate in the IPO.

Only looking for experienced "accredited investors" makes it harder to sue.

[Rover]

Only looking for experienced "accredited investors" makes it harder to sue.

There are securities rules in soliciting investors that pertain to restricting to accredited investors. It isn’t about being sued, it’s about following the law.

[BDP]

There are securities rules in soliciting investors that pertain to restricting to accredited investors. It isnÂ’t about being sued, itÂ’s about following the law.

Well, they're following the law to avoid getting sued, That's just the civil side of enforcing the rules.

[jn1780]

Their TV ads in Denver say you must be an "accredited investor" (> $1 million and an experienced investor) to participate in the IPO.

Which is funny because qualified investors don't usually base their decisions based on tv ads they see. These ads were intended for a different audience, not related to the IPO IMHO.

[Rover]

Well, they're following the law to avoid getting sued, That's just the civil side of enforcing the rules.

Lol. Maybe they are just following the law. Maybe in a way you are suspicious of, but nonetheless following it. Following rules isn’t always about being sued. Parents don’t have to beat their kids for them to grow up respecting rules.

[BDP]

Lol. Maybe they are just following the law. Maybe in a way you are suspicious of, but nonetheless following it. Following rules isnÂ’t always about being sued. Parents donÂ’t have to beat their kids for them to grow up respecting rules.

Wasn't trying to suggest it was suspicious behavior or that parents have to beat their kids for them to follow the rules, Just didn't occur to me that's what we were discussing. lol

[jn1780]

The people around the area are starting to get more vocal.

https://kfor.com/news/local/west-okc...rhoods-nearby/

[Pete]

I did some research into JW Roth who is running the show for Sunset and all the related businesses.

He runs a restaurant called Bourbon Brothers in Colorado Springs (where he lives) which also features some acoustic live music. Then right next door, they opened Boot Barn, a large open hall with a bunch of tables and chairs that can be cleared out to accommodate up to 500 live music fans. According to their website, millions were raised from investors for both. The first Sunset Amphitheater will be located very near these two businesses.

Roth then raised money and opened the same two concepts (Bourbon Brothers and Boot Barn) in Gainesville, Georgia. Not coincidentally, the VP of real estate and development for Notes Live (the umbrella for all Roth’s businesses) lives in Gainesville, a city of 43,000 about 50 miles outside of Atlanta.

Investors in Bourbon Brothers sued Roth a couple of years ago (see below). and ultimately the matter was settled out of court. The way this type of civil case works the resolution terms are rarely disclosed.

Roth also declared bankruptcy in 2001 and his various businesses have faced lawsuits in the past.

Roth’s pattern is to start a small business then take it public ASAP. He’s not only soliciting investors for all his projects, he now wants to take Notes Live public as well.

As far as I can determine, Roth does not have any sort of college degree.

[bison34]

I've never realized how crazy some NIMBY concerns are, and how they word them. In an economy where cities are booming and small towns are dying, they thought living in a suburb meant they were immune from growth? And the noise is scary? Man...

[jn1780]

I've never realized how crazy some NIMBY concerns are, and how they word them. In an economy where cities are booming and small towns are dying, they thought living in a suburb meant they were immune from growth? And the noise is scary? Man...

Someone earlier in this thread were using noise for a reason to not build this thing closer downtown. I think its ok, as long as they shut down by 10:00 pm to comply with OKC's sound ordinance.

The NIMBY's may not have to worry about this thing getting built anyway. This guy has a resume that look's a lot like Jeff Rogers at least in terms for his appetite for risk.

[Snowman]

Someone earlier in this thread were using noise for a reason to not build this thing closer downtown. I think its ok, as long as they shut down by 10:00 pm to comply with OKC's sound ordinance.

The NIMBY's may not have to worry about this thing getting built anyway. This guy has a resume that look's a lot like Jeff Rogers at least in terms for his appetite for risk.

I highly doubt a promise to stop by 10 is going to stop NIMBY's trying to block a project that is inherently going to bring a lot of noise to their area, and whatever acts they get probably only a minority would they have interest in. Part of why doing this in the Adventure District kind of makes more sense, as there already is a large outdoor venue in area so less change of character for approval committees to weigh against the venue, homes are farther away in any direction to start, and is more centralized to metro.

[onthestrip]

NIMBYs worried about noise, when they live right next to I40...

[jn1780]

NIMBYs worried about noise, when they live right next to I40...

There's a difference in highway traffic that becomes 'white noise' after awhile. I live not too far from the Kilpatrick and that doesn't really bother me much. The neighbor on a Friday night who blares their music on the other hand. I have been that neighbor that reported their loud music after 10.