Sign of things to come? SVB fails

[BoulderSooner]

Why? If they expect a recession this year, which would be imminent at this point, why hike? A recession in and of itself should bring down inflation even more. A shallow recession is one thing, don't need them to trigger a severe one. If we do get another .25 I think that's the last one given the current data and information.

inflation is still a major major issue ..

[soonerguru]

inflation is still a major major issue ..

0.1% inflation is a "major, major issue???"

Your comments are totally predictable based on your partisanship.

It's far more likely the Fed will cool on the interest rate increases based on the new data. Despite what some people on the left are saying, I don't believe the Fed is purposely trying to create a recession.

They are trying to moderate inflation, and it appears what they are doing is working (despite the Saudis trying to stick the knife in one last time).

[soonergolfer]

0.1% inflation is a "major, major issue???"

Your comments are totally predictable based on your partisanship.

It's far more likely the Fed will cool on the interest rate increases based on the new data. Despite what some people on the left are saying, I don't believe the Fed is purposely trying to create a recession.

They are trying to moderate inflation, and it appears what they are doing is working (despite the Saudis trying to stick the knife in one last time).

I’m wondering if you have a clue what you’re talking about. Inflation “cooled” to only a 0.1% month over month rise. Sounds like you’re in the 2021 “inflation is transitory “ crew. Gas is on the rise and we are going into summer. A one month reprieve is hardly righting the ship.

[BoulderSooner]

0.1% inflation is a "major, major issue???"

Your comments are totally predictable based on your partisanship.

It's far more likely the Fed will cool on the interest rate increases based on the new data. Despite what some people on the left are saying, I don't believe the Fed is purposely trying to create a recession.

They are trying to moderate inflation, and it appears what they are doing is working (despite the Saudis trying to stick the knife in one last time).

what in the world are you talking about???

inflation even as the gov measures it is still over 5% .. yes that is a major major issue ..


how is inflation a partisan issue?

[mugofbeer]

Inflation IS a partisan issue because government policies greatly affect inflation. In all fairness, Covid had a great influence on the economies of both President's. Trump presided over an economy that was exploding and only held back by a lack of employees. Covid hit and blew that up.

Biden, of course, inherited Covid but also an economy held together with shoestrings with only essential workers at work, an economy by delivery and an entire demographic upheaval. Where economic numbers were historically low, only an overall economic collapse would have made them worse - they could only go up and they have - but at the cost of inflation followed by higher interest rates.

Spending under Trump did skyrocket but due to Covid emergency spending. Biden continued that but also undertook multiple other massive spending programs that have resulted in our inflation, high rates and slowing economy. The only reason inflation isn't worse is because Covid and Covid spending has run out - but replaced by massive social spending that isn't economically beneficial. The infrastructure spending hasn't really started but buys 20% less, now.

Here, lets talk about how much of an issue inflation has been.

Overall since Nov. 2020, the CPI is up 14.7% - this compares with 7.1% over Trump's entire term. Over the entire year prior to the election, CPI was up just under 1%.

- This means $1.00 Nov. 2020 is now worth $0.853
- This means your $50,000/year job is now the equivalent of a $42,650 job
- lf you made $15/hr and got a $5/hr raise, it's now the same as a $17.06/hr job

Overall CPI inflation is up 5% over the past year, February's 1 year inflation was 6%, so THE RATE OF INCREASE IN PRICES IS SLOWING. Overall consumer prices are NOT dropping (that's called DEflation).

Gasoline is down significantly at 18% since last year so the rate of inflation should continue to slow overall since the price of gasoline affects everything. TVs and large appliances are down since the supply chain catastrophe is slowly unwinding.

Other than gasoline, most everything we need for survival has inflated with no guaranty of a significant overall decline. Merchants are far more hesitant to decrease prices unless competition and/or business levels force them to.

Some specific commodities-market-based items, such as eggs, have deflated significantly since Jan. 1 but most other items have not. The cost of housing and electricity hasn't dropped at all but continues to inch up and will likely continue unless there is a significant recession.

So, Econ. 101 will tell you a 1 month inflation reading means little. Longer term rates mean everything. Unfortunately, the damage is done so anything more is twisting the knife.

[gjl]

And gasoline is going back up now too.

[chssooner]

And gasoline is going back up now too.

Blame Saudi Arabia and Russia for that. They have no desire to work with anyone else to lower the prices.

[soonergolfer]

Blame Saudi Arabia and Russia for that. They have no desire to work with anyone else to lower the prices.

I guess you could “blame” them for wanting to keep price control on their countries most valuable asset and the product that essentially pays for the entire government. They have absolutely no sympathy for the US and how they released 350M barrels from the SPR in a year, just because they felt like it.

[Plutonic Panda]

I guess you could “blame” them for wanting to keep price control on their countries most valuable asset and the product that essentially pays for the entire government. They have absolutely no sympathy for the US and how they released 350M barrels from the SPR in a year, just because they felt like it.

We also kinda sorta enable that and allow it to happen soooooo

[Jersey Boss]

We also kinda sorta enable that and allow it to happen soooooo

Yeah, I'm sure SA asked first. How did "we" allow it to happen?
Enquiring minds want to know.

[soonergolfer]

Yeah, I'm sure SA asked first. How did "we" allow it to happen?
Enquiring minds want to know.

SA is smart. They know that US production is going to max out over the next few years. OPEC controls the pricing now, and they know it.


I am curious if anyone with way more knowledge in the area than me…. What are the consequences, if any, of countries like China, SA, Iran, Brazil and other countries, deciding to not use the US $ as the currency oil is traded on? It doesn’t seem like it can be any kind of positive for the strength of the US$, but it seems like there could be a multitude of ripple effects down the road.

[Plutonic Panda]

Yeah, I'm sure SA asked first. How did "we" allow it to happen?
Enquiring minds want to know.

We could be completely energy independent if we wanted to. I mean this gets into a whole different array of subjects, including politics that Pete doesn’t want discussed on the site anymore.

[mugofbeer]

As long as technology for hybrid, electric and hydrogen vehicles progresses and costs start to equate with petroleum engines, the need for oil won't be as great because supply will decline more slowly than demand.

Get EV Semi's on the road - even if just local, short haul routes, and huge amounts of petroleum will no longer be needed.

[Plutonic Panda]

As long as technology for hybrid, electric and hydrogen vehicles progresses and costs start to equate with petroleum engines, the need for oil won't be as great because supply will decline more slowly than demand.

Get EV Semi's on the road - even if just local, short haul routes, and huge amounts of petroleum will no longer be needed.

I can’t believe we haven’t at least embarked on an initiative to install electric outlets at truck stops similar to RV parks so the trucks don’t have to idle. It seems like we should’ve done that a long time ago.