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Thread: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

  1. #1

    Question The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Where do you think the Oklahoma City will be in 20, 50, or even 100 years will it still be a single city or will it be part of Tulsa or DFW or will it become a ghost city will there be new Interstate Loop or will the interstate system be dead put your thoughts here.

  2. #2

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    I think it will be bigger and potentially overtake El Reno, with a rather decent but boring downtown, a thriving edge on the west and northern borders of the city limits, and everything in between becoming more and more decrepit. I don’t see much changing in the city planning happening as long as Oklahoma stays the same in every other way.

  3. #3

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    I don't think Oklahoma City, Tulsa or DFW will ever meet up together in growth for the next 50 to 100 years. The far-right politics of Oklahoma and harsh year-round weather will keep population growth tempered with side benefit of keeping cost of living down. Most of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal states are where a lot more growth will be centered. However, with climate collapse and the threat of World War III, I wonder far more if the world, country and state will still be inhabitable with a good economy in just the year 2030.

  4. #4

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    A lot of the coast might just be under water in our lifetime.
    And I see OKC getting better as time goes on.

  5. #5

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    The OKC of 20 years now will not be massively different ... just a larger version of the OKC of today. A handful of new mid-rises on the order of The Citizen among ongoing infill in the downtown/midtown area, Strawberry Fields sprouting but not built-out, the Innovation District built-out and a "bridge" of development more or less to Downtown. New soccer stadium and OKC on the short list for MLS expansion if not already an MLS city. In the suburbs, Penn Square will be the Ione mall left, but Quail Springs will be successfully repurposed. Development will continue apace up the limited access SH-74/Lake Hefner Parkway towards Covell Road. Norman and Moore have more closely grown together.

    In 50 years we'll be in massive societal transition mode.

    In 100 years, everything will be different. Impossible to predict. Some wild guesses: Probably no private ownership of vehicles. Everything of course will be powered on energy sources not related to oil/gas (this will likely have happened between 20-50 years from now). Best guess is no "shopping centers" or "office buildings" as we currently know them. Commerce and business is done in virtual reality. Cities may be cleaner and much quieter as the population is largely living in VR. OKC's
    "built out" areas may not be much larger in area than in 2040-2050 even with double or triple the population, as lots of repurposing of structures, densifying going on.

  6. #6

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    I think it will come down to what generations want. We are starting to see a shift even right now with a demand of more efficient housing/apartments. Gen Z is starting to graduate college and research is showing they have little, to no desire or simply can't afford to have the "American Dream" of the 1950's. I think OKC's population will continue to grow, simply because of where people can find jobs. I think smaller towns in Oklahoma will greatly decrease in size as there isn't much to keep people there once the older generations pass away. A shift in education and the work force seem to also be on the forefront with AI technology making exponential leaps in just the past year and also having quality access to information at our fingertips on nearly any topic in our pocket.

    We may see a large shift in US population as well, many Millennials and Gen Z are choosing to have one or none children due to many factors.

  7. #7

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunty View Post
    I don't think Oklahoma City, Tulsa or DFW will ever meet up together in growth for the next 50 to 100 years. The far-right politics of Oklahoma and harsh year-round weather will keep population growth tempered with side benefit of keeping cost of living down. Most of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal states are where a lot more growth will be centered. However, with climate collapse and the threat of World War III, I wonder far more if the world, country and state will still be inhabitable with a good economy in just the year 2030.
    I could be wrong, but I fail to see how today's geopolitical climate is any different than any we have seen since the beginning of the Cold War. Who knows. We could be blown into dust in two hours or two thousand years.

    Speaking as a non-Oklahoma native, I see great growth potential in Oklahoma City. I think there will be a steady population growth in every direction. They keep building neighborhoods everywhere, which is honestly surprising, because I think the economy isn't very good, but people must be buying.

    Seems from what I am seeing, most of the growth is happening north of Edmond and to the west towards El Reno. I have not been south of Norman for quite a while, but wouldn't surprise me if that is expanding as well. Same with the east.

    A lot can happen in 100 years. In 100 years the turnpike to Tulsa may be unrecognizable.

  8. #8

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by floyd the barber View Post
    A lot can happen in 100 years. In 100 years the turnpike to Tulsa may be unrecognizable.
    But you can guarantee that generation will still be paying for it!

  9. #9

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Slightly different, but for many many years I have been watching the DFW MetroMess grow out in an ever increasing circle.

    On the Northern end it has exploded up past Denton to Sanger. There used to be a lot more farmland, now it's cookie cutter after cookie cutter.

    I think one day that will meet Gainesville and grow past the Red River into Oklahoma.

    The problem with the DFW Metromess and North Texas in general is water. They have always had a shortage of water. In fact, North Texas has tried for years to get the water in SE Oklahoma, that has not worked out legally. Supreme Court case and all that.

    What I do see in Oklahoma, and in most all other States, is the continued and worsening demise of small towns. They're being decimated. KIds grow up, graduate high school, there are none to few jobs available, so they move to College or jobs in the larger metro areas. This just simply feeds upon itself and keeps getting worse.

    Water is the other issue. Overpopulation here in the USA and most of the World is worsening by the day.

    As far as OKC? OKC will not be able to sustain bigger and wider growth, the cost of providing utiliites, roads and other such services will become cost prohibitive. There are creative ways to provide that but the cost will still be staggering.

    All this will be fascinating to watch and learn from as time goes by.

  10. #10

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    I think it has been the case for generations that a large part of the OKC metro's in-migration growth has been from small town Oklahoma.

    Yes, there are plenty of anecdotes of a neighbor that moved from Indiana or a work colleague from Alabama. But many more are from Cordell or Weatherford or Seminole or the like.

    I wonder, as small town Oklahoma continues to get smaller and smaller, this pipeline will by virtue of simple demographics start to run down. Will the dying of small town Oklahoma eventually constrict the growth of the OKC metro?

    As for the DFW explosion, I do think there is a limit. I mean, to what degree do people in Sanger or Gainesville even identify with Dallas? They may commute to Denton but how many of them really consider themselves part of DFW? And if they go into Dallas proper only a few times a year, can they really even be considered contributing factors to that area beyond simply some numbers on a data table?

  11. #11

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Yes i agree that DFW is Expanding i think its northern limits would be somewhere near the arbuckles if it gets that far. also i think it will come into Oklahoma near Durant in about 10-15 years and into Thackerville in 15-25 years.

  12. #12

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    A close friend and I have a running joke about how if civilization as we know it is still around in 100 years, there will likely be an OKC-DFW megacity that's only broken up by the Arbuckles. Even now, there's always a noticeable increase in traffic when driving to/from DFW on I-35 once you pass the WinStar.

  13. #13

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by Ward View Post
    Overpopulation here in the USA and most of the World is worsening by the day.
    That situation is not expected to continue., https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ne-reason-why/

  14. #14

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Most of OKC surrounding MSA will get hit with a tornado in next 20years, grass fires in next 50 years, and flash floods in next 100 years. That should keep growth in check.

  15. #15

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by unfundedrick View Post
    That situation is not expected to continue., https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ne-reason-why/
    Super interesting article on fertility rates. Thank you for posting it.

  16. #16

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Actually I'm quite surprised that the population of OKC has increased.

    Seems as if every time some gal gets pregnant, some guy leaves town.
    .

  17. #17

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by stlokc View Post
    I think it has been the case for generations that a large part of the OKC metro's in-migration growth has been from small town Oklahoma.

    Yes, there are plenty of anecdotes of a neighbor that moved from Indiana or a work colleague from Alabama. But many more are from Cordell or Weatherford or Seminole or the like.

    I wonder, as small town Oklahoma continues to get smaller and smaller, this pipeline will by virtue of simple demographics start to run down. Will the dying of small town Oklahoma eventually constrict the growth of the OKC metro?
    This is a great point.

    Rural America is not only shrinking, it's aging. Tons of younger people grow up and move to a city and that has been a huge driver in OKC's growth.

    But there are fewer and fewer young people in these smaller towns not only because they are shrinking in terms of the general population, but because the people that remain are older. Go spend so time in small-town Oklahoma and what you'll mainly notice is that the people left are 50+ with most of them over 60. Some of the elderly will move here simply for healthcare and senior living options.

    So, there will be a continued downward trend of young people in rural locations which means fewer people moving to OKC. But I don't think we'll see those effects any time soon as the OKC area is still a huge magnet and these small towns continue to drain.

  18. #18

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by floyd the barber View Post
    I could be wrong, but I fail to see how today's geopolitical climate is any different than any we have seen since the beginning of the Cold War. Who knows. We could be blown into dust in two hours or two thousand years.

    Speaking as a non-Oklahoma native, I see great growth potential in Oklahoma City. I think there will be a steady population growth in every direction. They keep building neighborhoods everywhere, which is honestly surprising, because I think the economy isn't very good, but people must be buying.

    Seems from what I am seeing, most of the growth is happening north of Edmond and to the west towards El Reno. I have not been south of Norman for quite a while, but wouldn't surprise me if that is expanding as well. Same with the east.

    A lot can happen in 100 years. In 100 years the turnpike to Tulsa may be unrecognizable.
    This part is what makes so much sense. A lot people talking about the threat of WW3 are watching way too much random youtube videos. Whether it be China or Russia WW3 most likely will not happen any time soon. Or at least they will not be the countries involved. Just think about the times the world was about to end in the past and we were headed to world war 3.. It most likely didn't happen.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    The future is very hard to predict right now.

    The state of jobs, where they are located and how people do work, is very much in flux. Lots of companies shrinking or closing offices having employees go remote/hybrid. People can often take jobs with them and live where they like, if that becomes the overall norm, the change will be huge.

    Young people today don’t like to drive a whole lot but are afraid of mass transit due to the spread of illness. That hurts big coastal cities.

    A lot of change will come due to climate and related water issues. More and more severe storms and coastal flooding in the east. Lack of water in the west and massive fires in the west. Florida is already having big problems with insurance companies pulling out. In the north, winter gets more and more mild all the time. 20-30 years of more of these cycles and storms will likely drive many millions from the coasts.

    Young people today also seem to want a better work/life balance than previous generations and are less status driven. They want more affordable housing and lives.

    I think all this means very strong growth for mid-sized metros in flyover country in places like Oklahoma. But I temper that with the overall declining growth and aging population of the United States. We are currently pretty anti-immigrant in much of the country, and the only overall growth in population we have now is in immigration.

  20. #20

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by Cocaine View Post
    This part is what makes so much sense. A lot people talking about the threat of WW3 are watching way too much random youtube videos. Whether it be China or Russia WW3 most likely will not happen any time soon. Or at least they will not be the countries involved. Just think about the times the world was about to end in the past and we were headed to world war 3.. It most likely didn't happen.
    It's low, but the tail risk is such that I can understand why people worry about it. What quality of life would exist, for example, after even a "limited" exchange of 50 nukes between two of the nuclear superpowers, not to mention the global food shortages that would likely occur as a result of any sort of nuclear winter?

  21. #21

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by SEMIweather View Post
    It's low, but the tail risk is such that I can understand why people worry about it. What quality of life would exist, for example, after even a "limited" exchange of 50 nukes between two of the nuclear superpowers, not to mention the global food shortages that would likely occur as a result of any sort of nuclear winter?
    We are already looking at major shortages of food worldwide next year. The only reason things have not really kicked off already is the fact we got most of a harvest this year from both. Russia the largest producer of wheat in the world is actively invading the 5th largest producer of wheat and actively destroying the fields and looting equipment in eastern Ukraine. It also doesn't help that Russia and Ukraine are the two largest exporters of sunflower oil. It also doesn't help that they are also significant exporters of potash for fertilizer. These industries are by and large going offline or at best are functioning intermittently in an active warzone, so exporting is going to be a bitch. We are going into a time where scarcity of water and foodstuffs is going to continue to be a bigger problem globally than it has before in the modern era. North America is food secure by and large due to the American and Canadian plains, but areas like SEA, Africa, and the Middle East could easily experience major food scarcity/famine.

  22. #22

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    We’ll be eternally free, yes, and eternally young.

  23. #23

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Obviously OKC will develop in relation to what's going on in the rest of the world: War, Innovation, Restlessness, Robots, Climate, GeoPolitics, etc etc.

    That being said, I think 20 years from now, society and OKC will be recognizable in relation to where we are today. The central core (NW Grand Blvd Loop) will have solidified itself as the epicenter of Urban Oklahoma and will have reached a point where every week you're seeing/hearing about developments that today would seem like big deals.

    The NW part of the city + Edmond will continue to be the largest middle to upper middle class area. Edmond and Deer Creek will continue to attract white collar jobs/companies to locate in the area, keeping the area from seeing the same declines of some of OKCs nascent suburban communities (PCO, Del City, etc)

    The Southern parts of OKC will probably reap the benefits of central OKC and Norman/Moore having seen tremendous growth and squeezing the area along with the BNSF commuter rail creating an anchor between I-44 and the tracks. Southern metro (Tuttle etc.) will be the new Yukon/Mustang

    Working Class and Lower Class will push out West, and you'll see the beginning of Mustang and Yukon turning into the next Midwest City. Midwest City will likely be relatively similar to where it's at.

    The Eastern metro will look completely different, but will still be sparse enough that it won't garner much attention. Jones, Choctaw, Spencer will definitely be bigger, but they won't grow the way Western Oklahoma is going to grow.

    50 years from now - OKC as a whole will probably be fairing decently, as long as some of our E&P companies have found ways to reinvent themselves and, hopefully, bring some cool energy technologies to Oklahoma as early as other major metros. I don't see an upswing that makes us 10x more relevant than we are today, but we'll be a relatively stable city at a time when many cities are either growing faster than they can handle, or losing population. But you'll see the bones laid out for much of what is to come, and by now, the haves and have-nots will likely be set for generations to come.

    100-150 years from now, the human race well may be facing the beginning of the end of anything that looks like the history of our ancestors and us today: Assuming we've figured out fusion by the 50 year mark and found a way to make it smaller, we'll likely have started colonizing Mars and using that as a jumping off point for determining how we'll push outside of the solar system and this will be the pre-eminent subject matter of human thought. Our understanding of science will have greatly benefited from AI and improved computing such that we may be well on the way to cracking how to travel beyond the solar system and having reasonably assessed, and potentially even seen, planets from other solar systems. Energy will be abundant, AI/robots will be as common as electro-domestic appliances, but will have a far more profound impact on our day to day lives and economy. Work will look entirely differently and we'll likely have some sort of basic resource apportionment, particularly because food sources will be drastically different and may be the reason for a smaller population than we have today (or at least one that has not grown exponentially). The whole of OKC will have begun to feel more like a neighborhood amongst the whole region than a vibrant place with diverse experiences we know today. I don't think it will look like the futures we see in Sci-Fi movies, per se, but I think it will also look and feel nothing like it does today because the global society will have been so impacted by multiple major events positive and negative, and, again, AI/Robots will have truly made an impact that we can't really fathom at this point.

  24. #24

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond Hausfrau View Post
    Most of OKC surrounding MSA will get hit with a tornado in next 20years, grass fires in next 50 years, and flash floods in next 100 years. That should keep growth in check.
    Ha, I doubt it. Since the great Moore tornadoes of 1999 and 2013, the population of Moore has grown from 41,138 to 62,793+. The great tornadoes of Moore don't work to scare people from ballooning the population.

  25. #25

    Default Re: The Future Of The Oklahoma City Metro

    Quote Originally Posted by Ward View Post
    Slightly different, but for many many years I have been watching the DFW MetroMess grow out in an ever increasing circle.

    On the Northern end it has exploded up past Denton to Sanger. There used to be a lot more farmland, now it's cookie cutter after cookie cutter.

    I think one day that will meet Gainesville and grow past the Red River into Oklahoma.

    The problem with the DFW Metromess and North Texas in general is water. They have always had a shortage of water. In fact, North Texas has tried for years to get the water in SE Oklahoma, that has not worked out legally. Supreme Court case and all that.

    What I do see in Oklahoma, and in most all other States, is the continued and worsening demise of small towns. They're being decimated. KIds grow up, graduate high school, there are none to few jobs available, so they move to College or jobs in the larger metro areas. This just simply feeds upon itself and keeps getting worse.

    Water is the other issue. Overpopulation here in the USA and most of the World is worsening by the day.

    As far as OKC? OKC will not be able to sustain bigger and wider growth, the cost of providing utiliites, roads and other such services will become cost prohibitive. There are creative ways to provide that but the cost will still be staggering.

    All this will be fascinating to watch and learn from as time goes by.
    As long as Oklahoma keeps its state income tax and gasoline is highly priced, I don't see much growth spreading north of the Red River from Texas. Why live in Ardmore or Durant when you can live in Gainesville, be closer to DFW, while not being forced to pay state income tax? It's great, though, that Ardmore and especially Durant are exceptions to the rule and are growing, rather than declining.

    I don't see a source of more water being a problem in OKC's or Edmond's future as long as either are welling to extend the Kaw water pipeline from Stillwater. Kaw Lake has remained at or near normal levels even during times of drought.

    It's pretty unfortunate for sure when even many Oklahoma towns along the 3 biggest interstates aren't able to grow.

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