2023 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

[chssooner]

"Midsized and underserved cities
With the above in mind, we have looked at a sample of 34 midsized US cities with metro populations of roughly one to two million (and some other ones for fun).

While extraordinarily straightforward, for this article total seats at each airport last year were related to metro population, while GDP per capita was considered.

Some very fast-growing airports had very high seats to population, such as Charleston (7x more seats than population), Austin (9x), San Jose (10x), Nashville (11x), Raleigh Durham (12x), New Orleans (14x).

In contrast, multiple airports had just 3x to 4x seats to population, well below the average of 6x. These include the likes of Norfolk, Rochester, Providence, Albany, Tulsa, Birmingham, Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Grand Rapids, Louisville, Richmond, and Tulsa.

Others were 5x, including Memphis, San Antonio, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh, Omaha, Buffalo, Milwaukee, and Hartford.

All of these would have even lower scores – and therefore be even less served – if hub seats were removed.

Of course, airports may be underserved for a reason, but in most places globally they offer a good opportunity – with the right fares, capacity, timings, and promotions – to launch multiple new leisure-focused routes that are easy to stimulate."

https://www.anna.aero/2020/08/07/bre...zed-us-cities/

Whoever from the city talks to these airlines must absolutely suck at marketing the city to them. It is criminal that OKC is in a class with those cities. At least be even with Omaha. Pathetic.

[catch22]

The article is a year and a half old. Breeze's strategy was to serve these "underserved" markets such as OKC. Well they tried and didn't last, which starts to tell you something about the market -- it might not be profitable to add a bunch of seats in OKC.

[chssooner]

The article is a year and a half old. Breeze's strategy was to serve these "underserved" markets such as OKC. Well they tried and didn't last, which starts to tell you something about the market -- it might not be profitable to add a bunch of seats in OKC.

Then OKC needs to be more aggressive in subsidizing routes. Perception is reality. And the perception is that OKCs airport is small potatoes (which it is). But they also are struggling to get routes back from pre-Covid. SFO, EWR, Detroit, Dulles, etc. And having all their routes basically be on tiny planes is an even worse look. Profitability, sure. But that shifts all the blame off the airport director, and OKC was booming under the last one. Now? I know I am in the minority, but they have 4 new gates, and the airport now has more gates than it needs, with no prospects at improving it (losing more routes than they are gaining).

Bash away.

[amocore]

I am going to introduce you to my 4 years old. He does like to repeat himself over and over too.

[chssooner]

I am going to introduce you to my 4 years old. He does like to repeat himself over and over too.

You're right. It is the definition of insanity to expect improvement from this middling, fledgling airport.

[Snowman]

The article is a year and a half old. Breeze's strategy was to serve these "underserved" markets such as OKC. Well they tried and didn't last, which starts to tell you something about the market -- it might not be profitable to add a bunch of seats in OKC.

Though in that case incumbent airlines added basically all those same routes, which it looks like New Orleans is the only one that is not still an option.

[catch22]

I'm not sure if you missed it but there was a global pandemic that shut down air travel demand and decimated airline fleets and staffing. This has resulted in a major shift of strategy in how the airlines are deploying their assets and utilizing their hubs. Some routes may never come back. The industry post-2020 is nothing like 2019 and prior. The entire business is different. Notice how the routes that have yet to return were international gateways?

SFO - Primary #1 UA hub for Asian and Transpacific demand -- that demand is still near the bottom of the toilet bowl. At least the water has stopped swirling and may even start rising.
EWR - United's strategy shifted for Newark in the post-pandemic world. This hub will shift to a near 100% O&D base for NYC travel and they are on record saying it will be primarily a mainline only hub going forward. In other words, if you can't profitably fill a 737 or Airbus to Newark without relying on connections you aren't going to see service. There will be exceptions, but that is United's baseline for entry into EWR now. You need extremely strong O&D demand to NY. They don't want to connect you in EWR. It costs a lot of money and the missed connection rate is very expensive. They seem content to allow AA and DL fight it out in LGA with smaller airplanes.
DTW - This was a large International gateway for Delta. They seem to have shifted their strategy in the post-pandemic world by consolidating their smaller airline size (they shed a lot of airplanes during the pandemic) to ATL. The other hubs are all secondary to ATL. Their smaller size has forced them to retreat and consolidate into their main fortress.
IAD - Guess what? Another large international station for United.
PHL - Guess what? Another large international station for American. They seem content to consolidate their international and east coast out of CLT and DFW.

I think we can see a trend growing. International demand out of OKC can't support service to these hubs any longer. That can always change, and if it does the airlines LOVE making money. They will sniff out the fares and service as they did in the past.

United's revenue management software evaluates every click on the screen you make when picking a flight, and even searches competitor schedules, equipment, and pricing in the background when you do your search. The AI evaluates every possible option available to you and uses it to figure out why you picked the flight you did. The first few hours they turned this software on it filled up several Terabytes of storage. They aggregate the data now to save space, and of course, it is stripped of any personal data. They use it to evaluate trends into why they are gaining business or losing business in certain markets. Believe me when I say if the airline thinks a route is worth trying, they already have an insane amount of data to make that decision. The airport director does not need to call United and tell them what they are missing. It's like calling an oil company and telling them you are pretty certain you have a huge untapped oil reserve under your house. They will laugh and say OK we'll keep an eye on it. They already have the geological surveys for the whole country. They know where the oil is and at what price they can get it and sell it. You calling them doesn't really do anything to change it.

This subject is turning into the tragic beating of a dead horse.

[soonerliberal]

It seems that American is adding a second daily flight to LGA in NYC for the summer. Having a morning and evening option to the northeast will definitely be an upgrade from just the late night in and early morning out situation right now.

[gopokes88]

I'm not sure if you missed it but there was a global pandemic that shut down air travel demand and decimated airline fleets and staffing. This has resulted in a major shift of strategy in how the airlines are deploying their assets and utilizing their hubs. Some routes may never come back. The industry post-2020 is nothing like 2019 and prior. The entire business is different. Notice how the routes that have yet to return were international gateways?

SFO - Primary #1 UA hub for Asian and Transpacific demand -- that demand is still near the bottom of the toilet bowl. At least the water has stopped swirling and may even start rising.
EWR - United's strategy shifted for Newark in the post-pandemic world. This hub will shift to a near 100% O&D base for NYC travel and they are on record saying it will be primarily a mainline only hub going forward. In other words, if you can't profitably fill a 737 or Airbus to Newark without relying on connections you aren't going to see service. There will be exceptions, but that is United's baseline for entry into EWR now. You need extremely strong O&D demand to NY. They don't want to connect you in EWR. It costs a lot of money and the missed connection rate is very expensive. They seem content to allow AA and DL fight it out in LGA with smaller airplanes.
DTW - This was a large International gateway for Delta. They seem to have shifted their strategy in the post-pandemic world by consolidating their smaller airline size (they shed a lot of airplanes during the pandemic) to ATL. The other hubs are all secondary to ATL. Their smaller size has forced them to retreat and consolidate into their main fortress.
IAD - Guess what? Another large international station for United.
PHL - Guess what? Another large international station for American. They seem content to consolidate their international and east coast out of CLT and DFW.

I think we can see a trend growing. International demand out of OKC can't support service to these hubs any longer. That can always change, and if it does the airlines LOVE making money. They will sniff out the fares and service as they did in the past.

United's revenue management software evaluates every click on the screen you make when picking a flight, and even searches competitor schedules, equipment, and pricing in the background when you do your search. The AI evaluates every possible option available to you and uses it to figure out why you picked the flight you did. The first few hours they turned this software on it filled up several Terabytes of storage. They aggregate the data now to save space, and of course, it is stripped of any personal data. They use it to evaluate trends into why they are gaining business or losing business in certain markets. Believe me when I say if the airline thinks a route is worth trying, they already have an insane amount of data to make that decision. The airport director does not need to call United and tell them what they are missing. It's like calling an oil company and telling them you are pretty certain you have a huge untapped oil reserve under your house. They will laugh and say OK we'll keep an eye on it. They already have the geological surveys for the whole country. They know where the oil is and at what price they can get it and sell it. You calling them doesn't really do anything to change it.

This subject is turning into the tragic beating of a dead horse.

But should OKC get more aggressive with subsidies? lol kidding.

[gopokes88]

It seems that American is adding a second daily flight to LGA in NYC for the summer. Having a morning and evening option to the northeast will definitely be an upgrade from just the late night in and early morning out situation right now.

Growth in OKC is going to be through AA. Both frequency and routes.

You want more routes in OKC? Fly AA, they've been very aggressive.

[oktxatty]

I am going to introduce you to my 4 years old. He does like to repeat himself over and over too.

There is absolutley no economic validity in 2023 to subsidize commercial air service at OKC.

[BG918]

Growth in OKC is going to be through AA. Both frequency and routes.

You want more routes in OKC? Fly AA, they've been very aggressive.

That has shown itself to be the best option for OKC. Same with TUL which also has a unique loyalty to AA with the 6k employees at the maintenance base and ability to rotate aircraft. I know I just switched from a United card to AA for this reason.

[gopokes88]

Cool article. Reiterates a lot of what Catch said.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united...newark-update/

[BG918]

Cool article. Reiterates a lot of what Catch said.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united...newark-update/

Interesting, maybe EWR will be resumed when they open up the other terminal. But by then there will also be 2-3 nonstops to LGA where previously it was just OKC-EWR to NYC

[catch22]

Growth in OKC is going to be through AA. Both frequency and routes.

You want more routes in OKC? Fly AA, they've been very aggressive.

And to provide some more proof of it being nothing personal against OKC, but just where OKC falls within each airline's networks:

The current head of network planning at AA (which has resulted in tremendous growth in OKC) was the former head of Network Planning at United when UA began to shrink and stagnate in OKC and similar markets. They make decisions on the financials. While at UA he did nothing positive for OKC from a route planning perspective and you'd assume he hates Oklahoma, at AA you would think he was an Oklahoma City native looking out for his hometown.

I met with Brian Znotins when he was at UA, I emailed him and he invited me to Chicago Willis Tower to have lunch with him and meet his team that makes all of these decisions. We discussed many of these topics over several hours as we ate and he showed me around his floor. He's a total airplane geek. He told me if it was purely up to him and not the financials he would be flying mainline on every route the airline flies. He even canceled a route he already had hotel reservations for and bought plane tickets on to take his wife for their anniversary because it kept failing to meet the financial goals of the company. Ultimately, he is bound to the equipment and staffing the airline provides him, and his job is to meet the financial targets and overall capacity discipline that the board requires. At UA that meant being stagnant in many OKC-like markets, at AA that means growing midsize markets and being the legacy airline of choice in those markets

[gopokes88]

And to provide some more proof of it being nothing personal against OKC, but just where OKC falls within each airline's networks:

The current head of network planning at AA (which has resulted in tremendous growth in OKC) was the former head of Network Planning at United when UA began to shrink and stagnate in OKC and similar markets. They make decisions on the financials. While at UA he did nothing positive for OKC from a route planning perspective and you'd assume he hates Oklahoma, at AA you would think he was an Oklahoma City native looking out for his hometown.

I met with Brian Znotins when he was at UA, I emailed him and he invited me to Chicago Willis Tower to have lunch with him and meet his team that makes all of these decisions. We discussed many of these topics over several hours as we ate and he showed me around his floor. He's a total airplane geek. He told me if it was purely up to him and not the financials he would be flying mainline on every route the airline flies. He even canceled a route he already had hotel reservations for and bought plane tickets on to take his wife for their anniversary because it kept failing to meet the financial goals of the company. Ultimately, he is bound to the equipment and staffing the airline provides him, and his job is to meet the financial targets and overall capacity discipline that the board requires. At UA that meant being stagnant in many OKC-like markets, at AA that means growing midsize markets and being the legacy airline of choice in those markets

Awesome story, thanks for sharing.

AA have 8(?) dailies to DFW helps okc so much. Those routes are always full. AA then notices things like, hey OKC can support a Miami route.

Those 8 dailies to dfw are so critical because it makes for quick layovers, boosting traffic and gives AA better data.

[Swake]

Whoever from the city talks to these airlines must absolutely suck at marketing the city to them. It is criminal that OKC is in a class with those cities. At least be even with Omaha. Pathetic.

You do know that Providence and Norfolk are larger metros than OKC, right?

[chssooner]

You do know that Providence and Norfolk are larger metros than OKC, right?

Well, OKC likes to market itself as a top 20 city...except for its top 70 airport. Just wanting consistency.

[HOT ROD]

You do know that Providence and Norfolk are larger metros than OKC, right?

ha, just barely. They are Less bigger than what OKC is larger than Tulsa metro.

[PaddyShack]

Good for AA, but I still want choice and a variety of time tables out of OKC. I don't care so much of who is flying when, I just seem to not have any good flight times out or in. Of course, this is all subjective to me and I am most definitely not the majority of travellers. I just haven't gotten used to the current times after COVID. Has AA improved their quality since 2019 and prior? I remember not being overly impressed with their quality when I flew them last in 2016/2017ish. And for Delta, they seemed to have older planes but we never had issues with their customer service both domestically and abroad.

[gopokes88]

Good for AA, but I still want choice and a variety of time tables out of OKC. I don't care so much of who is flying when, I just seem to not have any good flight times out or in. Of course, this is all subjective to me and I am most definitely not the majority of travellers. I just haven't gotten used to the current times after COVID. Has AA improved their quality since 2019 and prior? I remember not being overly impressed with their quality when I flew them last in 2016/2017ish. And for Delta, they seemed to have older planes but we never had issues with their customer service both domestically and abroad.

Its definitely better. Is it as good as Delta? Probably not.

[brianinok]

Good for AA, but I still want choice and a variety of time tables out of OKC. I don't care so much of who is flying when, I just seem to not have any good flight times out or in. Of course, this is all subjective to me and I am most definitely not the majority of travellers. I just haven't gotten used to the current times after COVID. Has AA improved their quality since 2019 and prior? I remember not being overly impressed with their quality when I flew them last in 2016/2017ish. And for Delta, they seemed to have older planes but we never had issues with their customer service both domestically and abroad.

AA's quality is perfectly fine. I fly them most often. It's better than 2016-17. I find all 3 legacy carriers roughly equal right now, which is generally fair, with an occasional excellent or poor crew or staff member. Everyone gushes about Delta but I just don't see why. They're fine, but I can't for the life of me figure out how they're any better than the other two legacy carriers. I appreciate when I get a screen on Delta or United, but on American I almost always get a holder for my iPad/iPhone, which is nice. I find the OKC staffs of all 3 legacy carriers to be helpful and friendly. I believe that United's is the only one that is contract, but I still think they are nice and helpful. AA's has been very proactive and helpful to me several times, providing the type of service I typically only get in the Admiral's Club.

[Jeepnokc]

Not necessarily OKC related but in light of the recent posts comparing Delta and AA it is interesting that DFW made it in the list and ATL didn't. I prefer Delta so haven't spent anytime in the DFW airport so not sure the amenities they have.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/b...aci/index.html

[LakeEffect]

Not necessarily OKC related but in light of the recent posts comparing Delta and AA it is interesting that DFW made it in the list and ATL didn't. I prefer Delta so haven't spent anytime in the DFW airport so not sure the amenities they have.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/b...aci/index.html

William P. Hobby Airport; Houston, Texas, USA is a "Most Enjoyable" airport?

[amocore]

AA's quality is perfectly fine. I fly them most often. It's better than 2016-17. I find all 3 legacy carriers roughly equal right now, which is generally fair, with an occasional excellent or poor crew or staff member. Everyone gushes about Delta but I just don't see why. They're fine, but I can't for the life of me figure out how they're any better than the other two legacy carriers. I appreciate when I get a screen on Delta or United, but on American I almost always get a holder for my iPad/iPhone, which is nice. I find the OKC staffs of all 3 legacy carriers to be helpful and friendly. I believe that United's is the only one that is contract, but I still think they are nice and helpful. AA's has been very proactive and helpful to me several times, providing the type of service I typically only get in the Admiral's Club.

I have to agree with that. Delta was better but the others step up too. I put AA back in my rotation. I am fine with UA but you can hardly use them from OKC.
The only thing I don't like with Delta is the massive use of old B 717 out of OKC. Can't wait for the new A 220 to replace this old gas guzzler.