January 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[OKCisOK4me]

^^^we got the beets

[Anonymous.]

Looks like sleet chances for OKC Monday.

Mixed bag of winter precipitation for Tuesday for OKC.

Ice storm for SE OK and into N TX.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like sleet chances for OKC Monday.

Mixed bag of winter precipitation for Tuesday for OKC.

Ice storm for SE OK and into N TX.

Do we have an idea when to expect the sleet, or is that just too variable to nail down at this point?

[Boop]

Is it Spring yet?

[kukblue1]

For the Metro probably anywhere from 8:00 till noon

[corwin1968]

Parking lot on the North side (122nd & May) was slick within five minutes of it starting.

[Anonymous.]

Convection with sleet is forming all along I-44, there will be pockets of random sleet for C OK this morning until this wave moves east.

OKC should see a break in precipitation later today before another wave of sleet/freezing rain/snow for Tuesday morning.

Major ice storm setting up down in TX from Austin to Dallas then into Little Rock and toward Memphis. Traffic accident mayhem will be taking place in many of these areas as they very rarely get winter precipitation.

[Pete]

I just got a wave of pea-sized hail near Penn Square.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Weather science folks, be honest. Do you guys make up new words every few years? What the hell is a "graupel"?

[LakeEffect]

Weather science folks, be honest. Do you guys make up new words every few years? What the hell is a "graupel"?

According to Merriam-Webster, it's been in use since approximately 1889... https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/graupel

[BoulderSooner]

lots of sleet in north Edmond in the last 30 min

[Pete]

Wow, now some serious thunder.

[MagzOK]

Weather science folks, be honest. Do you guys make up new words every few years? What the hell is a "graupel"?

I've seen Graupel a lot in Colorado, not so much here. I first saw it when I was little dropping of my older brother at the Air Force Academy and was super confused. It was like little rubber balls bouncing all over the place.

This is a really good clip about it:

https://youtu.be/faKBH8s_Z4o

Roads are terrible in the city. I drove in to my office at about 6A, just really cold but totally dry. Then the shiznit hit the fan and they sent us home, which is stupid in itself because now everyone is out driving. But alas, I made it home. Sleet is easy to drive on when it falls at first, but once it coalesces it becomes a sheet of ice. And whatever falls won't really melt until possibly Thursday.

[kukblue1]

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

[FighttheGoodFight]

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

Do you have kids in school and hate when it closes or something? You seem to get very worked up over school closures.

[MagzOK]

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

LOL, man I'm often critical of closures here but you really take it to a different level. That being said, when administrators went out and drove around between 5-6 nothing was falling, and frankly there was nothing on radar either because I was up at that time looking to see if I need to drive to work. This started in right during the commute. Our schools have now closed, though we kept them home anyway. Public schools won't close because the busses were already out and running, however all absences will be considered excused due to weather. Had this moved in earlier this morning they obviously would have called schools.

There have been times in the recent past where really the entire city shut down in anticipation of storms that never materialized, so I understand the hesitation for administrators today. Even as of last night, models were still all over the place. Usually there becomes a consensus of the models this close in, however they were still all over the place. I guarantee that had they closed the schools last night and nothing materialized, you would have been all over the schools for closing. I'm just guessing that based on your past comments the last week.

[kukblue1]

Here is the deal though. I would of not been all over them for cancelling today if nothing happen. I It doesn't matter the percent of precipitation only at 30% chance today okay but if it snows at 15°, the roads are going to turn the crap versus if it snows at 35°, with a warm ground temperature. Precipitation falls at 15° versus 35°, the roads are going to be bad. NWS even was warning people 12 hours ago that the morning commute was going to be horrible. I guess being from the North I don't understand how things work down here. Your well below freezing for 24 hours ground is frozen freezing rain, sleet, snow in the forecast you leave schools open. Warm ground temps, air temps above freezing and you close? Sorry if I don't understand. On to the next storm.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNorman/p...8bLVPhvLYju5Jl

[Boop]

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

You must be a school janitor

[BoulderSooner]

Busses are going to have issues on neighborhood streets this afternoon.

And those streets will be worse tomorrow.

[Boop]

Busses are going to have issues on neighborhood streets this afternoon.

And those streets will be worse tomorrow.

I think schools will be closed tomorrow

[C_M_25]

Will somebody please provide some clarity on the forecast for this system. I keep hearing “school closures, ice tomorrow, etc.” The models look kinda blah on tomorrow. I’m so confused on this system right now.

[Bill Robertson]

Will somebody please provide some clarity on the forecast for this system. I keep hearing “school closures, ice tomorrow, etc.” The models look kinda blah on tomorrow. I’m so confused on this system right now.

I agree. FV3 is the only one really showing much of anything. But all of my employees are asking if we'll be closed because the TV forecasts are predicting much more than the models are showing.

[kukblue1]

I agree. FV3 is the only one really showing much of anything. But all of my employees are asking if we'll be closed because the TV forecasts are predicting much more than the models are showing.

The might be another wave in the morning around 9-noon. Just like today. It might not be very much but like I have said before it's not going to take much to turn the roads to crap. It's not going to be 4-6 inches but it doesn't need to be when it's this cold. 1/2 inch of sleet, or freezing drizzle will get the job done.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid...28493719316268

[corwin1968]

Will somebody please provide some clarity on the forecast for this system. I keep hearing “school closures, ice tomorrow, etc.” The models look kinda blah on tomorrow. I’m so confused on this system right now.

Looks like Mustang and Edmond have already called it for tomorrow, with Mustang being closed and Edmond being virtual. I expect the other major districts will do so later today.

ETA: OKCPS will be virtual tomorrow.

[Anonymous.]

Here is the latest for OKC.

Mon->Tues AM [coinflip]: Another round of light wintry mix will develop late tonight across N/NW TX. This wave will push NE much like this morning's round. Looks like primary type will be sleet again. The more reliable models do show precipitation impacting OKC from this round, but the best chances will again be S and E of the metro. There is a chance that everything could stay E.

Tuesday PM: The rest of Tuesday day is quiet for the metro, much like Monday.

Wednesday [roll a dice]: The main low comes out of NM and the warm nose begins to overtake the shallow cold air. This is where it gets tricky because models suck at temperature forecasting these scenarios. The general consensus on models is that the majority of the state will get above freezing on Wednesday afternoon and temperatures will again drop near freezing heading into the night. This is when the rain associated with the main low will be passing across TX. Now much like the rest of this storm, the bulk of precipitation is expected to be SE of I-44, so OKC may not see much precipitation to have the air temp even matter. We should have a better idea in the next 36 hours.


Wednesday night GFS [OKC cold rain]:



Wednesday night GEM [freezing rain just SE of OKC]: