December 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[Bellaboo]

Mike is the ultimate Hype Man. "Our chances for a white Christmas...talking about the totals and how it could affect your Christmas travel at 10" or "discussing the potential for an historic tornado outbreak in central Oklahoma...make sure you watch at 10 to know which areas are in the danger zone"

Mike Morgasm....

[Bill Robertson]

The KFOR website just changed from Aaron's 11 day forecast to Mike's. Two completely different worlds. And the models agree with Aaron's forecast of cold but pretty dry. Not Mike's of a mix.

[Anonymous.]

Are you talking about for Christmas weekend? If so, there is strong indication of very cold temperatures in the area with a NW flow. So dry snow showers/flurries is feasible during the cold spell.

[Bill Robertson]

No. He's got a 40% chance of a mix either Tuesday or Wednesday night. Is not at my computer right now. I haven't seen a model showing that. Definitely there could be flurries around Christmas.

[midtownokcer]

Mike has "possible Blizzard" for Thursday on the 7 day. Ridiculous.

[Bunty]

Ridiculous is the word for it. Mike Morgan had up 2.1" of snow for OKC, 8.7" for Stillwater and 11.1" of snow for Tulsa on Friday morning with up to 70MPH winds and -20WCI. But Aaron Brackett on the 6pm Sat. news talked like there wasn't going to be much snow at all. He was also hopeful from latest data the cold wasn't going to hang around long and be much warmer with 44 on Monday.

[SEMIweather]

We should be back to near-normal temperatures by the end of the month.

[crimsoncrazy]

Mike Morgan saying a “Life threatening blizzard” in store for Thursday.

[Ohwiseone]

It’s what happens when you jump on one model and ride it till the event happens.

The NWS forecast discussion said they think the model he is using is “bullish” with how fast it’s moving and kept the amounts low.

[SEMIweather]

I do think that the chances for measurable snow are increasing on Thursday. I'm less convinced that the impacts of 1-2" of snow and gusty winds rate as "life-threatening", especially here in the Metro. I probably wouldn't be making plans to drive down any dirt roads in Grant County, but for now I'm fairly nonplussed about OKC effects.

[BG918]

Widespread 1-3” snow across Oklahoma Thursday with some higher totals possible. Some snow could mix with rain Monday night across eastern OK. Coldest temps in 2 years (near 0 F) potentially Friday morning

[BG918]

GFS snow totals for Thursday-Friday -this will likely change but there will be snow just don’t know how much yet

[Bunty]

David Payne on channel 9 says snow on Thursday will be trace to 1/2" in OKC. Up to 1" in Enid, Stillwater and Tulsa. But totals will shift. Snow will be heavier in Missouri from Springfield to St. Louis. I-44 may have to be closed due to drifting snow. Low may be -3.

[BG918]

Latest models have backed off on snow totals. Any snow that falls will be blowing around with high winds

[MagzOK]

Eggs, bread, and milk sections were completely gutted at Natural Grocers this evening. People gearing to spend an entire week in their house and need to stock up! SMH

[Bunty]

I noticed the same at Wal-Mart Monday night. It's hard to believe people are still buying eggs. They have more than doubled in price.

Thank goodness Mike Morgan has backed off a lot on snow total for Stillwater, going from 8.7" to only .7". Thanks for the big downsizing. If I were him, I would give up presenting sensational snow totals days too early in advance no matter how highly much a computer model shows.

[Anonymous.]

Wednesday will be OKC's last time above freezing until probably Sunday afternoon. There will be blowing snow showers/flurries and 20-30mph winds rushing in from the NW on Thursday. No meaningful accumulation is expected in C OK. The worst will be if you are caught driving in a quick snow shower where visibility will be affected.

Big story is the cold and wind. Basically don't go outside Thursday or Friday. OKC will be near 0F on Friday morning.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Lets hope for no blackouts this winter storm!

Saw the 14 day outlook and it looks like post-christmas we will be above seasonal averages.

[Outhunder]

Summer please.

[C_M_25]

Lets hope for no blackouts this winter storm!

Saw the 14 day outlook and it looks like post-christmas we will be above seasonal averages.

I’ve heard comments earlier on this and the fact that we even have to consider “blackout” as an option during a cold snap is unacceptable. Is this just the normal lack of planning and funding our infrastructure needs or is this something else? Switchover to wind energy? I don’t know but I don’t remember this being an option openly discussed on the news…let alone actually considered in the past.

[fortpatches]

Oklahoma did not have any issues with Wind energy generation during that ice storm. The "Largest single cause of generation unavailability attributed to fuel supply issues"
spp-comprehensive-review-february-2021-winter-storm.pdf

Gas generation was 17 GW under winter accredited generation and Coal was 5 GW under its winter accredited generation. Wind was at the same generation capacity as its winter accredited generation.

[BG918]

CMC and EURO models are more bullish on snow totals in NE OK. GFS barely showing an inch with most locations just a trace.

[Anonymous.]

Freezing fog advisories are draped across most of W-C OK as temperatures are failing to get above freezing heading into lunch.

WRWA is seeing delays and cancellations. I also see they are already canceling departures for Thursday morning.

[BG918]

This model shows the front and brief round of freezing rain and snow pushing through the OKC and Tulsa metros between 4 and 6 am tomorrow

[Anonymous.]

Front is here and patchy freezing drizzle is coming down behind it.