November 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[LakeEffect]

As of October 31, the 7-day is pretty strong for rain in central Oklahoma - 2 to 4" possible in the first week of November, mainly Thursday through Saturday (Nov. 3-5).

[BG918]

That would be amazing if it happens. We need about 3-4 of those to spaced out over a month to significantly erase the drought, especially with the dry winter season approaching.

[Brett]

Funny how the predictions never show a dry slot that splits the precipitation north to Kansas and south to Texas and leaves Oklahoma high and dry.

[LakeEffect]

I also failed to mention that SW Oklahoma is on Day 4 of the severe outlook and SW into Central Oklahoma on Day 5. So, beware of possible flooding and severe storms...

[OKCDrummer77]

Starting to see some high school football teams (Piedmont, Purcell, Lexington, and Washington so far) are moving their games this week to Thursday because of the threat of weather on Friday.

[MagzOK]

I also failed to mention that SW Oklahoma is on Day 4 of the severe outlook and SW into Central Oklahoma on Day 5. So, beware of possible flooding and severe storms...

And that will no doubt move around as the week wanes on.

[kukblue1]

Thursday night and Friday look a little interesting you can pull up some tornado soundings two points are on the low 60s it's just this time of the year is always hard for one the Sun goes down by 6:30 so you lose the heating of the day. The timing isn't always right either and that might be the biggest issue with this storm it's going to be about timing is it going to come through late evening or is it going to come through in the middle of the night

[crimsoncrazy]

Models shifting the heavy rain east.

[Pete]

What started out as a projected major rain event for OKC on Friday now looks like we'll be lucky to get .25 inch.

This drought has to be one of the worst in a long time.

[C_M_25]

I will say that it has been nice to get the rain we have received. Our yard is still moist which is nice. However, we do have a ways to go to get the lakes back up to level, but we’re nowhere near as bad as the Mississippi River. We’re not releasing much water currently as we’re trying to get our lakes back up to normal levels, so any rain in our part of the world isn’t really going to help the region as a whole. It looks like this rain event is shifting east which is exactly what we need right now as that water will help bring up water levels in the Mississippi. If it gets much lower, it’s going to have major economic implications.

[Anonymous.]

Forecast is continuing to lean away from C OK impacts. Right now it looks like the best shot for OKC rain is any early afternoon showers and storms Friday.

[BG918]

The dreaded dry slot strikes again

[Plutonic Panda]

Do dry slots affect weather in other regions as much as it does in OKC? It seems like I only hear that term in Oklahoma.

[BG918]

Do dry slots affect weather in other regions as much as it does in OKC? It seems like I only hear that term in Oklahoma.

I know they happen frequently in Colorado. There it’s caused by certain wind direction causing downslope off the Front Range.

[Teo9969]

I will say that it has been nice to get the rain we have received. Our yard is still moist which is nice. However, we do have a ways to go to get the lakes back up to level, but we’re nowhere near as bad as the Mississippi River. We’re not releasing much water currently as we’re trying to get our lakes back up to normal levels, so any rain in our part of the world isn’t really going to help the region as a whole. It looks like this rain event is shifting east which is exactly what we need right now as that water will help bring up water levels in the Mississippi. If it gets much lower, it’s going to have major economic implications.

Yeah, on top of Ukraine conflict and oil prices in general, this is a pretty huge deal and one that should have everyone in the US pleading with the gods to give us some relief.

[C_M_25]

I’m really hoping we get some good snow this year. I think that would be the best avenue out of this drought. Snow melt soaks in so well.

[kukblue1]

You get a Tornado sounding and you get a Tornado sounding and you get a tornado sounding. EVERYONE GETS A TORNADO SOUNDING. Doesn't mean there will be tornadoes but the spin in the atmosphere is going to be crazy. QCLS tornadoes anywhere along the squall line. Where that forms who knows but looks like it really gets going just east of OKC around 4.

[Bunty]

I’m really hoping we get some good snow this year. I think that would be the best avenue out of this drought. Snow melt soaks in so well.

Just rain, please no big snowstorms. Snow interferes with transportation too much. I'm not afraid to drive in the rain but would rather not in the snow, especially at night. I've tried driving in heavy snow at night. I didn't know it would get so bad that it would become a whiteout. I made it home okay but told myself never again would I drive in a whiteout. It later led me to being a party pooper by refusing to drive friends to a nighttime company Christmas party in Enid, because it had started snowing heavily.

And hardly anybody wants a repeat of the Great Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009.

[Libbymin]

I'm OK with a big snowstorm as long as I don't have to drive in it. It's the ice that I hate. Super dangerous to drive in and a terror on the trees.

[Ginkasa]

Well, just a reminder to everyone that wishes don't make the weather and different weather means different things to different people. Just because someone enjoys the positives of a snowstorm (its pretty, you can play in it, etc.) doesn't mean they're celebrating the negatives of it (travel is difficult, etc.).

When I worked at the theatre we never closed for anything, so snow or ice was always bad news because I'd have to venture out in it regardless. I got stuck in the '09 blizzard for that reason. But now I work from home exclusively so I can welcome snow with open arms. Doesn't mean I'm glad for those who have to go out in it.

[C_M_25]

Is this a “put your car in the garage” kinda night or is the timing poor for storm development?

[kukblue1]

Is this a “put your car in the garage” kinda night or is the timing poor for storm development?

Depends OKC metro 11-3 western Oklahoma 5-7am I wouldn't be shocked to see a tornado warning at 6am for western Oklahoma. So much wind sheer. It would be a bigger event if it wasn't for the cold front coming in hard and fast but so much spin ahead of the cold front. Really any storm out ahead of the cold front is going to be spinning.

[Anonymous.]

Short-range models are attempting to save face for some rain in C OK by developing elevated thunderstorms behind the front, but don't hold your breath.

Could definitely have some early evening spinups down across SE OK near the RR.

[Anonymous.]

Latest high resolution HRRR dry slots OKC.

[C_M_25]

Looks like the cold front has overtaken the storms and they’re weakening with the dry air coming in behind it. I don’t see how we can get any more than a few sprinkles from this system at this point.