September 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[BG918]

Models are now showing nothing, zilch, nada in the way of rain for the state for the next two weeks. Truly miserable situation unfolding with the late season heat and drought.

[Anonymous.]

There is a tropical wave entering the Caribbean in the next couple days that we will need to watch. Conditions are favorable for tropical development there - which would then open the door for a GOM entry.

[brunnesa]

Models are now showing nothing, zilch, nada in the way of rain for the state for the next two weeks. Truly miserable situation unfolding with the late season heat and drought.

I do not think this is miserable, but it is warmer than typical. Soon it will cool off and start raining some.

[BG918]

There is a tropical wave entering the Caribbean in the next couple days that we will need to watch. Conditions are favorable for tropical development there - which would then open the door for a GOM entry.

Models all over the place on that system. We should hope for a western GOM storm to bring us moisture.

[ksearls]

Models all over the place on that system. We should hope for a western GOM storm to bring us moisture.

Any idea when that would that be exactly?

[Anonymous.]

Storm if formed, should enter the GOM around Sept 28-29.

[BG918]

Extremely high fire danger across the state today and tomorrow. No rain even in the long range forecast. This could be an historically dry fall with drought conditions continuing to worsen as we go into the drier winter months. We need a tropical system from the GOM in a bad way.

[OkiePoke]

Large grass fire, getting close to home, near 122nd between Rockwell and Council.

[C_M_25]

I just wanted to stop by and say: I miss rain.

I’m so ready for a week straight of cloudy, rainy, cool days.

[Pete]

There are lots of dead and partially dead shrubs and trees all over town.

At the very least, it would be nice to see the end of temps 10-15 degrees above normal. Looks like we are going to be near 90 for the next couple of weeks.

[Bunty]

There are lots of dead and partially dead shrubs and trees all over town.

At the very least, it would be nice to see the end of temps 10-15 degrees above normal. Looks like we are going to be near 90 for the next couple of weeks.

If they lived through the unbelievably HOT summer of 2011 from having hundreds nearly every day, then they should be able to live through this.

In central Oklahoma, up until mid October, its not unusual for highs to get into the 90s some days. But if it's 90 or higher on Halloween, we'll know something spooky unusual is going on with the weather for sure.

[Pete]

In central Oklahoma, up until mid October, its not unusual for highs to get into the 90s some days. But if it's 90 or higher on Halloween, we'll know something spooky unusual is going on with the weather for sure.

It's been consistently 10-15 degrees warmer than average for some time, and the same is forecasted for the foreseeable future.

That's the very definition of 'unusual'

[BG918]

It's been consistently 10-15 degrees warmer than average for some time, and the same is forecasted for the foreseeable future.

That's the very definition of 'unusual'

We are in a very strong La Niña. This typically causes drought across the southwest and Plains. Go back to the last strong La Niña and there was a severe drought in 2011-2012 and also in 2000-2001.

[Celebrator]

There are lots of dead and partially dead shrubs and trees all over town.

I was told by someone in the landscaping business that the heat and drought this summer really hurt the trees that for hit hard by the ice storm of 2020 and the deep freeze of February 2021... basically the damage they received in thise events was only exposed now given the extremities we have faced this summer. I was in Fort Worth this weekend and there were so many sick or dead trees there too because of the after effects of the deep freeze in February of 2021. My biggest thing is... property owners, please replace dead trees and shrubs from your properties!!!

[BG918]

I was told by someone in the landscaping business that the heat and drought this summer really hurt the trees that for hit hard by the ice storm of 2020 and the deep freeze of February 2021... basically the damage they received in thise events was only exposed now given the extremities we have faced this summer. I was in Fort Worth this weekend and there were so many sick or dead trees there too because of the after effects of the deep freeze in February of 2021. My biggest thing is... property owners, please replace dead trees and shrubs from your properties!!!

Most of the palms in Texas died during the arctic blast in February 2021. I've noticed on trips down there many are still dead and haven't been replaced.

Drought can be one of the worst natural disasters because of how many things it affects, from trees/landscaping to farmers/ranchers to water supply. I don't see any drought erasers on the horizon; at this point even just a rain shower would be welcome but several inches of rain over a week is what we need to get out of the vicious drought cycle.

[okatty]

I’ll add another impact - going into this summer we had two small cracks on different sections of a pretty long/large driveway. Today we have two BIG cracks in those sections.

[BG918]

One thing that can ease or even erase a drought is a well-positioned tropical system moving north from the GOM or one moving NE from the Pacific coast of Mexico. The latter is actually a better scenario. Still a month or so to hope something moves this way as the jet stream/frontal passages haven’t done us any favors. This has been the quietest September nationwide.

[PaddyShack]

What sort of things affect the jet stream and how it behaves? Is there always a blowing jet stream, just shifts north or south, but always blows from west to east? I know most things are about normalizing pressure between areas, but I am curious as to what all truly affect the behavior of the jet stream vs the things affected by the behavior of the jet stream. If that makes sense.

[Roger S]

One thing that can ease or even erase a drought is a well-positioned tropical system moving north from the GOM.

At this point I'm ready to sacrifice Houston to get the rain we need.... Even when we had some of the bigger rain events they managed to mostly miss my farm.

[SEMIweather]

There is next to no chance of OKC getting the remnants of a GoM tropical system this late in the year. Best bet at this point would be the remnants of a landfalling Eastern Pacific storm as BG918 said.

Still seeing zero chance of any notable precipitation for at least the next 10-14 days. But on the plus side, I think the humidity is just about gone for the rest of the year. Still looking to have highs in the mid/upper 80’s for at least the next week or two, but it should feel relatively pleasant, especially at night when lows should consistently drop into the mid/upper 50’s.

[BG918]

The GFS is showing the potential for some moisture return across the Plains behind the hurricane hitting Florida this week and ahead of a weak system moving in from the northwest. Fingers crossed but at least it’s something.

[Roger S]

^ At this point I'd get excited about some light fog!

[FighttheGoodFight]

Reading no rain for at least another 2 weeks. It was the 5th driest September on record in Oklahoma.

[C_M_25]

This drought is awful right now. Going to see a lot of wildfires as vegetation starts to die off. Just not good.