May 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

Starting the May thread as the last day of April is going to be quiet, but things look to get active again in a hurry at the turn of the month. Expecting a significant severe weather event on Sunday in the OK/TX Panhandles, and the storms which form out there should eventually move into OKC on Sunday Night, albeit in a weakening state with only a marginal severe threat expected. Depending on how the atmosphere recovers on Monday, that could end up being a significant severe weather day for OKC. Still TBD, but the potential is definitely there and there doesn't look to be any capping issues. Tuesday is likely a transition day between systems. Wednesday could be yet another significant severe weather event for the OKC area, but details obviously get very murky that far out. Beyond that, the pattern becomes a little muddled, but I would lean towards late next week and next weekend being less active.

At some point later in the month, the Desert Southwest ridge will likely try to build in and turn our pattern hotter and drier than normal. But, I said something similar at the beginning of last month's thread and ended up being completely wrong, so it's certainly not a guarantee.

[jn1780]

You know what they say...

[Ohwiseone]

Latest Norman forecast discussion states Monday event might be just almost an exact copy of yesterday (Friday 29th).

If anything, it might be more difficult for stuff to fire until the cold front moves through.

http://https://forecast.weather.gov/...n=1&glossary=1

[C_M_25]

Latest Norman forecast discussion states Monday event might be just almost an exact copy of yesterday (Friday 29th).

If anything, it might be more difficult for stuff to fire until the cold front moves through.

http://https://forecast.weather.gov/...n=1&glossary=1

Weird. I have heard the exact opposite in regards to the cap.

[Ohwiseone]

Weird. I have heard the exact opposite in regards to the cap.

Yeah, I’m not at all a degreed meteorologist (I would describe myself as knowing just enough to be dangerous). But reading SPCs breakdown (which was almost 24 hours ago) and what Norman wrote are very opposite. (I tend to trust the Norman discussions because they are much more local, not that SPC isn’t incredibly knowledgeable.)

So, I’m just gonna keep watching their write ups and see if tomorrow gives a bit more info in the sudden change of discussion towards a CAP existing on Monday afternoon.

Of course, we have people here who might know more and I could be wrong in reading what they are writing.

[jn1780]

Yeah, I’m not at all a degreed meteorologist (I would describe myself as knowing just enough to be dangerous). But reading SPCs breakdown (which was almost 24 hours ago) and what Norman wrote are very opposite. (I tend to trust the Norman discussions because they are much more local, not that SPC isn’t incredibly knowledgeable.)

So, I’m just gonna keep watching their write ups and see if tomorrow gives a bit more info in the sudden change of discussion towards a CAP existing on Monday afternoon.

Of course, we have people here who might know more and I could be wrong in reading what they are writing.

Key point in bold. The local forecasts are based on the most recent data. I'm sure the local and SPC meteorologists actually consult with each other regularly. Some of the best minds work in that same building.

Monday will be another wait and see day. HRRR wants to fire one random storm right now over OKC right now. lol

[Ohwiseone]

Key point in bold. The local forecasts are based on the most recent data. I'm sure the local and SPC meteorologists actually consult with each other regularly.

Monday will be another wait and see day. HRRR wants to fire one random storm right now over OKC right now. lol

Good to see it’s a regular may then. Lol.

It’s always over OKC.

[jn1780]

Weird. I have heard the exact opposite in regards to the cap.

Little forcing. So the cap doesn't need to be strong.

[kukblue1]

Monday is going to be all about what happens on Monday Morning. If storms linger and cloud cover hangs around we should be just fine. If thing clear out and heat up than it could get interesting. I'm sure I will hear my new favorite word IF a lot. This time it probably won't be IF storms form it will be IF storms in the morning move out of the area by say noon.

[jn1780]

Monday may be a bigger day just because the usual people that hype things up haven't because its the weekend and their off. Lol

SPC seems a little bit more certain this go around.

[PoliSciGuy]

Wednesday is already looking like a big day, 30% probs on the Day 4 outlook

[jn1780]

The key differences between Monday and last Friday is that low level moisture is deeper and the warm front is nearby to help kick off storms

[C_M_25]

SPC 2 day tornado outlook is at 10%. Highest we have seen so far.

Models are picking up a cap but it doesn’t look quite as strong as Friday.

[C_M_25]

Anybody want to give a rundown on the conditions tomorrow? It’s weird because the SPC has a higher risk for tornadoes tomorrow, but the models are really struggling to initiate anything until the cold front comes through.

[Anonymous.]

Should get some good rain late tonight into Monday morning across the state. Hotspot looks to be across S OK.

Then if clouds can clear out and we get some heating, we should have a shot at severe storms Monday evening as well.

[jn1780]

Good to see west Texas getting good rain.

[C_M_25]

What are the odds for hail in okc tonight?

[PoliSciGuy]

Models are all over the place on how strong the MCS will be when it gets to OKC by 4-5am. Some have it on its last legs, others have some significant discrete cell popping ahead of it. So, in short, who knows.

The strength of the MCS also impact the threat for tomorrow, as it will drop an outflow boundary that increases the odds of storms overcoming the cap and actually forming tomorrow afternoon.

[SEMIweather]

Question for today is how far south this morning's convection is going to suppress the warm front. HRRR has been all over the place for the last day and even now continues to have a crap depiction of the (non-severe) MCS that's about to sweep through the Metro in an hour or so. The concern is that with the amount of convection generally being more than what has been modeled, the warm front could have trouble getting too far north of the OKC Metro. This is a concern because right along the warm front is where there's going to be the highest risk for a significant event today, especially if a supercell and/or a semi-discrete cluster of supercells can ride right along that boundary. The models have consistently shown the warm front making it up to Northern OK, but again I feel that they've underdone the amount of convection this morning, and the more convection you have, the harder time the warm front tends to have advancing northward. So that's the main thing I will be watching. However, even if the warm front does make it well north of the OKC Metro, still expecting a strong MCS to rapidly form early this evening as the cold front surges southward and overtakes the dryline. This would carry a threat of damaging winds, large hail, and possibly isolated QLCS tornado spin-ups. So I do expect that the OKC Metro will see some severe weather threat today regardless, it's just a question of whether we will ultimately end up in the bullseye for a more significant threat; which again, I expect that bullseye to be roughly wherever the warm front ends up stalling out late this afternoon.

[PoliSciGuy]

SPC went moderate today between Enid and Tulsa. OKC metro still in enhanced, though 10% chance of significant tornado.

https://twitter.com/iembot_spc/statu...eaj8s-KulekrcA

[C_M_25]

SPC went moderate today between Enid and Tulsa. OKC metro still in enhanced, though 10% chance of significant tornado.

https://twitter.com/iembot_spc/statu...eaj8s-KulekrcA

I wonder if the SPC has that moderate set up where they think the warm front will push that far back to the north. Like SEMI said, the models really aren’t dialed in with what’s happening this morning, so I’m starting to doubt the validity of the solutions showing the warm front making it back that far north. That being said, I wonder if that moderate outline could shift south if the warm front sets up say more along the I44 corridor?

[jn1780]

I wonder if the SPC has that moderate set up where they think the warm front will push that far back to the north. Like SEMI said, the models really aren’t dialed in with what’s happening this morning, so I’m starting to doubt the validity of the solutions showing the warm front making it back that far north. That being said, I wonder if that moderate outline could shift south if the warm front sets up say more along the I44 corridor?

From the discussion, it sounds like what their thinking. The moderate is where they think it should end up this afternoon.

Getting good rain here in Edmond now. On the radar, I see some new storms forming out west so I'm not sure how fast this morning rain is going to clear out.

[Pete]

Hooray for the rain!!

So badly needed.

[SEMIweather]

The area of storms currently moving through should be the last round for this morning. Granted, the complex continues to backbuild so it could continue to storm for the next hour or so. Not that anyone will complain, as we’re really getting a lot of good rain out of this, without the severe weather threat that usually accompanies our heavy rain events at this time of the year (though, the lightning with this MCS has been very impressive).

The warm front situation is going to be a wait-and-see type of deal, I think. The HRRR still just isn’t accurately capturing what is going on with the convective evolution this morning, which in turn doesn’t give me a ton of confidence in its depiction of how things will unfold this afternoon/evening. Ultimately I do feel that the SPC will adjust the highest tornado probabilities according to where they believe the warm front will stall out this afternoon. There seems to be a fairly notable chance of a significant tornado in the vicinity of the warm front, particularly if a supercell can move along that boundary between 6-8 p.m. as the LLJ starts to kick in but before the cold front starts surging south and transitioning things to more of a QLCS event. Will also be watching for any outflow boundaries left behind by this morning’s convection as that could be another focus for (relatively) higher probabilities.

Will probably revisit this in a few hours on my lunch break and see if anything has changed my general thinking.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has the moderate zone for severe wind threat (45% going into Tulsa) and the 15% tornado probabilities for the Enid-Ponca City-Stillwater triangle with the triple-point setup.

We can already see clouds clearing back out to the W behind this morning's MCS. This will give way to instability rebuilding across the area. Low-level moisture is going to be prime for low based thunderstorms that are capable of producing some massive hail and tornado chances. A broken line of supercells pushing E with newest development back-building to the WSW. Local flash flooding will be a big threat if the storms end up training over any area.

Extra fun added today with random outflow boundaries strewn about all over the place now, as well.


Side note, I do not like to look at the storm following another because data can be skewed, but Wednesday into Thursday looks insane across the state. Multiple rounds of storms and some models are predicting more than half a foot of rain for some areas.