May 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

The Newcastle storm has a little tail on it. Anything to be concerned about?

Yes, if you are in Moore - this is the one to watch.

[snark0leptic]

TV Mets are so focused on Maud, rightly, but yeah I'm around 134th and May and very interested in the Newcastle storm.

[SoonerDave]

The Newcastle storm has a little tail on it. Anything to be concerned about?

I think anything in this area is likely to rotate and form a hook. If you are east of that area I'd pay darned close attention to it.

[OkiePoke]

Seminole getting hit hard! Hopefully everyone is staying safe there.

Power flashes all over the place. Strong hook w/ multiple circulations.

[Ohwiseone]

It looks like the storm to the east of more/Newcastle is getting a bit ragged. Wondering if it jumped the front and is losing its heavy rotation.

Could be me guessing, I’m using a crappy radar, so someone correct if possible.

[SoonerDave]

Damage in Seminole. Purcell storm not as strong now.

[Anonymous.]

All the cells hugging I-35 have become very scattered.

[C_M_25]

Is the threat from here on out for okc basically high base storms with wind, hail, and flooding threats?

[C_M_25]

Holy cow! Seminole is about to get hit again!

[Anonymous.]

Looks like it may go just N of the last path. But this is basically 3 large tornadoes in three day span. Amazing.

[soonerguru]

ANOTHER Tornado moving into Seminole. Horrible.

[C_M_25]

Very low dewpoints in Canadian co seem to be shielding okc from storm development. Seems like anything moving into that area from the southwest erodes immediately. Will this “ridge” eventually erode so that we see some rain on the west/northwest side of the city?

[Anonymous.]

Radar beginning to light up back toward the W now. Most of OKC missed out on the afternoon severe storms. Tornado watch is set to about expire in about 50 minutes.

Models continue to shift heaviest storm training just S of I-44.

[Anonymous.]

New MD is out for the same areas we've been looking at all afternoon. Emphasis on damaging wind threat from an evolving MCS out in SW/W OK.

Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 176...177...

Valid 050213Z - 050345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 176, 177 continues.

SUMMARY...Convective trends suggest that clustering/MCS development
may occur over the next few hours along/south of the warm front.
Damaging winds will become more common with time. Tornadoes are most
likely with discrete storms in Northwest Texas, though line-embedded
supercells and circulations are possible as well. Replacement
watches will likely be needed this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convective trends in southwestern Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas show increasing storm coverage. Supercells are
ongoing just south of the Red River, with the lead cell continuing
to produced tornadoes. IR satellite trends also indicate cloud
cooling along the warm front and NLDN shows an increase in lightning
activity. These trends all suggest that MCS development may occur
over the next several hours. While temperatures south of the warm
front have cooled, low 70s F dewpoints will keep that cooling to a
minimum. Given the downstream instability and forcing from the
trough, storms should continue along and south of the boundary this
evening/overnight. Damaging winds will become more common as a
transition away from discrete cells occurs. While some activity will
occur north of the warm front, storms there should generally be more
of a threat for hail

The greatest short-term tornado threat will continue to be in
Northwest Texas with the supercells moving east. Given the low-level
wind fields, however, tornadoes will remain possible even with more
linear activity.

A replacement tornado watch is likely for activity south of the
boundary. The hail threat north of the boundary may be sufficient
for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Wendt.. 05/05/2022

[Ohwiseone]

OKC has been dropped from the tornado watch. Severe thunderstorm watch *might* replace it.

[C_M_25]

Yesterday was not an easy forecast by any means as this storm system seemed a little strange with the low temps and dewpoints most of the day. The overcast conditions didn’t help much either. However, I feel like everyone (models included) did a pretty good job with this system. It was a little strange that the big area pegged for tornado development was in the SW quadrant of the state but most of the tornadoes occurred in the SE quadrant of the state. That could be bias though as most of the coverage was on those storms in the SE of the state. Good rain coming through this morning too. Hopefully we’ll get a few days of nice weather before the next system.

[Anonymous.]

Lake Eufaula may get a run at the record high level. They are only 14 feet from the record before all of last night's flooding upstream.

[Ginkasa]

Anyone know why the sirens around Yukon area are going off? I assume something's broken as there doesn't seem to be anything going on.

[Anonymous.]

Anyone know why the sirens around Yukon area are going off? I assume something's broken as there doesn't seem to be anything going on.

Definitely in error, but poor timing as there is some thunderstorms popping up across C OK this morning.

[SEMIweather]

FYI - hail threat ongoing with the elevated storms currently moving through the area. Golfball sized hail reported in El Reno. Don’t have too much else to say about it as storm evolution appears to be rather chaotic and driven by some subtle mid-level forcing that wasn’t really picked up by the hi-res models. But something worth mentioning.

[SEMIweather]

Storm currently over Blanchard looks to be intensifying and will likely hit OKC head-on around 11:15-11:30 or so. Wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up getting a warning for large hail.

[Bill Robertson]

Just got the most hail I've seen in a while at Hefner & Council. Glad I had pulled my car inside.

[Bill Robertson]

It had stopped but now it's hailing some more. Plus raining so hard I can barely see the house across the street.

[Celebrator]

Yesterday was not an easy forecast by any means as this storm system seemed a little strange with the low temps and dewpoints most of the day. The overcast conditions didn’t help much either. However, I feel like everyone (models included) did a pretty good job with this system. It was a little strange that the big area pegged for tornado development was in the SW quadrant of the state but most of the tornadoes occurred in the SE quadrant of the state. That could be bias though as most of the coverage was on those storms in the SE of the state. Good rain coming through this morning too. Hopefully we’ll get a few days of nice weather before the next system.

I was going to ask about yesterday's set up with our group of part-time mets on here: So I don't feel as though I have seen a set-up like we saw yesterday in the 12 years I have lived here--with this warm front stalling and then tornadic storm after tornadic storm training over the same area with little relief for several hours! I feel like most of the time the storms fire along the dry line and then move through and we're basically done because some particular element changes and the dynamics just aren't present anymore for tornadic storms. Was this set-up unusual or rare? Kind of seemed like nightmare scenario which we don't see much. Please correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed unique. Was just wanting a bit of perspective on yesterday with those more experience than me both with the science and just plain living here.

[SEMIweather]

Storm currently over Blanchard looks to be intensifying and will likely hit OKC head-on around 11:15-11:30 or so. Wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up getting a warning for large hail.

These storms are now trending down and should only pose a small hail threat as they move through the Metro.