May 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[C_M_25]

Dewpoints in okc barely in the 60’s. I just don’t understand what’s going on today. Hard to see any major severe weather here in okc unless dewpoints rise quite a bit more.

[chssooner]

Dewpoints in okc barely in the 60’s. I just don’t understand what’s going on today. Hard to see any major severe weather here in okc unless dewpoints rise quite a bit more.

I mean, I'm more than ok with rain. The amounts of rain we have gotten are good for lakes, but not the ground. It can only absorb so much, and the rest is runoff. A slower, steadier rain would be ideal here.

[PoliSciGuy]

Sounds like tornado watch coming for central OK and north Texas.

Edit: And there we go https://twitter.com/NWStornado/statu...18940619808769

[SEMIweather]

I don’t really think we’ll get enough surface-based instability into the OKC area for a higher-end tornado threat, but there will still be more than enough elevated instability for a wind/hail threat, particularly with the main convective system that should move in from the west in the late evening hours.

[SEMIweather]

Of course, the SPC just pulled the trigger on a tornado watch all the way up to Tulsa and I’d trust them more than myself, so

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

What time was the storm that went through OKC metro this a.m. ?

[C_M_25]

Dewpoints really coming up this afternoon and nosing a bit up into Oklahoma co. Dewpoints currently at 63 deg in central Oklahoma co with 67 not too much further south. I wonder if that front can push northward any further or if we’ll see anymore deepening of that moisture here in okc.

[SoonerDave]

Of course, the SPC just pulled the trigger on a tornado watch all the way up to Tulsa and I’d trust them more than myself, so

I'm certainly no expert, but in reading the mesoscale discussion, it seems to be the watch area was selected in view of the most aggressive northern movement of that boundary area. I think the northern edge of its movement probably defines the northern edge of the higher risk when all is said and done.

[LakeEffect]

What time was the storm that went through OKC metro this a.m. ?

Roughly 0600...

[C_M_25]

I'm certainly no expert, but in reading the mesoscale discussion, it seems to be the watch area was selected in view of the most aggressive northern movement of that boundary area. I think the northern edge of its movement probably defines the northern edge of the higher risk when all is said and done.

Dewpoint maps are suggesting that it might be pushing that far north.

[SEMIweather]

15% hatched TOR (and accompanying MDT risk) expanded to include the entirety of the OKC Metro south of I-40.

[SEMIweather]

The 18z Norman sounding is still very stable up to about 700mb. I’ll be interested to see what the 21z sounding looks like. IMO, it still feels aggressive to have the MDT risk including OKC, but it’ll ultimately depend on how far north the warm front gets.

[Ohwiseone]

The 18z Norman sounding is still very stable up to about 700mb. I’ll be interested to see what the 21z sounding looks like. IMO, it still feels aggressive to have the MDT risk including OKC, but it’ll ultimately depend on how far north the warm front gets.

I was noticing the same thing. Even the HRRR is fairly stable. (There is a minor window for about an hour and then it quickly shuts down.)

This could be a C.Y.A. Type of risk map. At this moment there is a single storm in southern Oklahoma that appears to have issues staying alive.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR showing numerous cells developing over the next 2 hours all across the S half of OK - Especially E of I-35. And then bleeding up into EC OK. Then a broken line of supercells comes in from the TX PH and lights things up along I-40 and all points south.

SPC upgrade is due to tornado probability moving from 10% to 15%. Any cell going up in the warm sector will likely be rotating to some degree. Also movements will be especially quick to the NE.


HRRR emphasizing flood risk along I-44, especially across C OK.

[Ohwiseone]

I don’t know how much more the warm front is going to move. According to the latest HRRR (currently the 20z run) it appears like OKC might be north of the front which means lots of rain and hail.

Both the SIGTOR and Supercell composite stay south, along with a CAP that apparently exists as well.

Again, I wouldn’t set this in stone and it’s WAY to early, but I have seen this in the last two HRRR runs.


But please someone correct me, if I am reading it wrong.

[jn1780]

OKC was always at the northern edge of moderate risk area. So it wouldn't be surprising if warm front never lifted north of OKC.

[C_M_25]

I have to say that this seems like a very unusual system. Heavily touted for the possibility of producing tornadoes yet it just doesn’t “feel” like that kind of storm. Like has been said, this feels more like a flood event.

[SoonerDave]

I don’t know how much more the warm front is going to move. According to the latest HRRR (currently the 20z run) it appears like OKC might be north of the front which means lots of rain and hail.

Both the SIGTOR and Supercell composite stay south, along with a CAP that apparently exists as well.

Again, I wouldn’t set this in stone and it’s WAY to early, but I have seen this in the last two HRRR runs.


But please someone correct me, if I am reading it wrong.

I just looked at the SPC map myself and the SIGTOR data and I think you are reading it correctly. I think it all depends on how far north that boundary makes it. Right now, the highest risk is south.

[Anonymous.]

The cells going up E of Lubbock will be the anchor for the main show later tonight. If you look @ the Frederick radar, you can see the boundary from about the corner of the state line and extending NE toward I-44. Any cells that ride along this boundary will have the best shot at tornado production.

Storms firing up now across the SC and C part of the state will still have ability for small supercell structures that can produce hail and anything super isolated can still produce spinups.

[Anonymous.]

New MD is out that focuses increased tornado potential in the area I described above this post.

Supercell going up S of Shawnee is also looking serious.

Norman to Noble needs to be on watch for the cell coming up down near Lindsay, OK.

[Anonymous.]

Additional towers going up N of Chickasha and also N of Pauls Valley. Everything is spinning right now. Tornado warning going into Seminole (again).

[snark0leptic]

Couple of storms by Newcastle/Blanchard are forming up.

[Anonymous.]

Yes two more supercells coming up west of Norman and Moore.


Purcell-Wayne area you are about to get a tornado warning.

[OkiePoke]

Tornado on the ground near Maud

[Ginkasa]

The Newcastle storm has a little tail on it. Anything to be concerned about?