April 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[snark0leptic]

[jn1780]

Cumulus clouds are starting to bubble up now. Looks like we are in cloud watching mode.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...OLOR&length=36

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah I don't think this is gonna cap bust. We got cumulus all the way from Lawton up to Salina. This could be quite the day.

[BG918]

Clouds just broke in Tulsa. Currently 76 degrees with mid-60's dewpoints

[Anonymous.]

CU field is looking very healthy for not even 4pm Temps are near 90F there. Short-range NAM model is now onboard with developing supercells along the southern end of dryline from about C OK down to the RR.

SPC is planning on issuing a Tornado Watch for C into S KS very soon per the MD that was mentioned in #151.

[jn1780]

I was kind of surprised they didn't bump enhanced back down to I-40.

[Anonymous.]

Yea really the only change is increased SIG hail down toward SW OK. Development sparking is still the key.

[SoonerDave]

Damon Lane just tweeted out a sat image of some.cumulus forming SW, but right now the cap.was holding.

[C_M_25]

Yeah it looks like that cap is going to be stubborn today.

[baralheia]

Seeing showers beginning to form on radar in the Cu field SW of Lawton, near the tri-point of Tillman, Comanche, and Cotton counties.

[SEMIweather]

IMO, about a two hour window from this point for supercell initiation. If it doesn’t happen by 6:30-7:00 I don’t think it’s going to happen. The convective showers south of Lawton appear to be struggling, for now.

[PoliSciGuy]

Tornado watch incoming per Aaron Brackett as a couple of storms are forming out by Lawton and Chickasha

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Brackett/s...58588026736641

[Anonymous.]

Watch is being issued by 5pm. Likely will be entire I-35 corridor.

[snark0leptic]

[NikonNurse]

Watch is being issued by 5pm. Likely will be entire I-35 corridor.

Driving on Kilpatrick, thermometer reads 86. There’s some clouds bubbling up to the west.

[SEMIweather]

Driving on Kilpatrick, thermometer reads 86. There’s some clouds bubbling up to the west.

Satellite imagery right now is absolutely textbook for a conditional spring severe weather event. Stratus deck in Eastern OK, clear skies in Central OK, shallow cumulus field bubbling up along the dryline, couple of storms struggling to break the cap in South Central OK, massive wildfire in NW OK behind the dryline.

[PoliSciGuy]

There's the watch, and language about...DVD sized hail?

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/statu...60845736554496

[jn1780]

There's the watch, and language about...DVD sized hail?

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/statu...60845736554496

Did they mean to say something else? Interesting they used a 2d object to describe a 3d thing.

[Anonymous.]

Never seen that before. It should list grapefruit as that is traditional object comparison for that large of hail. The watch has 50% probability of 1 or more EF2+ tornadoes.

HRRR is onboard with dryline development, specifically honing in on at least 1 supercell impacting C OK.

[SEMIweather]

Definitely some agitation in the cumulus field. Caddo County is the area I’m focusing on in particular for development. *If* development occurs in this area, it would likely grow upscale and affect the OKC Metro. As Anonymous said, the HRRR is onboard with this solution.

[SoonerDave]

Storm near Binger bears watching, heading toward SW corner of Canadian County and given general track would probably carry it toward OKC if it pokes through the cap.

[SoonerDave]

Storm near Binger bears watching, heading toward SW corner of Canadian County and given general track would probably carry it toward OKC if it pokes through the cap.

Meh, looks like it kicked up, but ran out of steam. Still there, but seems to have lost some momentum.

[jn1780]

Meh, looks like it kicked up, but ran out of steam. Still there, but seems to have lost some momentum.

The one south of thar blip is picking up a bit now.

[NikonNurse]

Driving on Kilpatrick, thermometer reads 86. There’s some clouds bubbling up to the west.

Looks like they’re struggling though… I was looking at one section going up fast, thinking “this is going to be bad” but it just fizzled off.

[SEMIweather]

Looks like they’re struggling though… I was looking at one section going up fast, thinking “this is going to be bad” but it just fizzled off.

I’m sitting at the Love’s in Newcastle and pretty sure I saw the same exact tower. Looked like it was gonna do it for about five minutes…now, not so much.