April 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Sigh... What a random and obvious thing to say "high end tornadoes are MUCH more dangerous than low end." No one lives in Oklahoma thinking an EF0 tornado is more dangerous than EF5. I guess maybe an outsider who is only familiar with the Defcon scale.

Since he said it, I will outlay the days:

Friday (very conditional on if development occurs, low chance of development with high risk if anything does.

Sunday night/Monday looks like high chance of development, especially for S half of OK in terms of severe risk .

Wednesday looks like very similar to tomorrow (Friday) setup.

[Martin]

high end tornadoes are MUCH more dangerous than low end.

thanks, john.

[jn1780]

Remember folks! Getting hit by a car going 70 mph is worse than a car going 25mph. So try not to get by the car going 70mph.

[SoonerDave]

I've held that Mike Moron shouldn't have been on TV after his ridiculous "Drive South" on-air comment a few years ago. He is a meteorological menace.

[jn1780]

I've held that Mike Moron shouldn't have been on TV after his ridiculous "Drive South" on-air comment a few years ago. He is a meteorological menace.

Speaking of which, he seems to think tomorrow will be worse than expected. Of course he has to find a way to reference May 3rd.

This was on his twitter feed a few minutes ago. He is actually more reserved on tv.

[PoliSciGuy]

Tomorrow is another one of those weird “either blue skies or supercell” days that is wholly dependent on if the cap holds or not

[SoonerDave]

Speaking of which, he seems to think tomorrow will be worse than expected. Of course he has to find a way to reference May 3rd.

This was on his twitter feed a few minutes ago. He is actually more reserved on tv.

He lost all credibility with me for that incident I mentioned. It was so infamous it became a topic in some severe weather prep activities in which I was involved, wherein it was mentioned that supposedly that very incident was communicated to all local media as an example of something that should never be repeated.

[SoonerDave]

Does anyone have a source for current CIN levels? I tried to find a current map or similar product from NWS and some other places, but I've come up empty. I'm sure I'm just not looking under the right rock. Big message coming out right now (7am) it seems is that the cap is really strong today.

[SEMIweather]

Does anyone have a source for current CIN levels? I tried to find a current map or similar product from NWS and some other places, but I've come up empty. I'm sure I'm just not looking under the right rock. Big message coming out right now (7am) it seems is that the cap is really strong today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoa...php?sector=15#

Go to the "Thermodynamics" section and the SBCAPE/MLCAPE maps will also have the SBCIN/MLCIN, respectively.

I would be very surprised if the cap breaks before the cold front moves through overnight. I do think there will probably be a line of storms that develops along the cold front but this should just result in a marginal wind damage threat.

[C_M_25]

From looking at the skew-t this morning, it looks like we’ll have to be well over 85 deg today to have a chance to break the cap. Probably even closer to 90 deg. I don’t think we’re expected to get anywhere near that warm today. The other possibility is that the warm air layer erodes which I also don’t think it expected to happen until that cold front comes through.

[SoonerDave]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoa...php?sector=15#

Go to the "Thermodynamics" section and the SBCAPE/MLCAPE maps will also have the SBCIN/MLCIN, respectively.

I would be very surprised if the cap breaks before the cold front moves through overnight. I do think there will probably be a line of storms that develops along the cold front but this should just result in a marginal wind damage threat.

Awesome, thanks!

[Anonymous.]

As of late morning - some of the short-range models are becoming bullish on supercell development along the dryline. Current solar radiation on the ground is being limited due to low deck cloudcover. This will be important for surface temperatures moving into this afternoon.

If dryline development does occur, it may be just 1-3 supercells. Kansas dryline development is looking likely.

[C_M_25]

Any idea if they’re going to release a weather balloon today at 12?

[SoonerDave]

I don't know if this is prevalent across all of central OK, but where I am the morning thick cloud deck is breaking up and sun is emerging. My weather station tells me its about 75. If full sun comes out, weather forecasts may change if we start to sniff the mid to upper 80s.

[jn1780]

I don't know if this is prevalent across all of central OK, but where I am the morning thick cloud deck is breaking up and sun is emerging. My weather station tells me its about 75. If full sun comes out, weather forecasts may change if we start to sniff the mid to upper 80s.

Looks roughly the same across central Oklahoma looking at satellite. Don't know if it will be enough though to break the cap. There is a corridor of warmer temps in the low 80's west of I-35.

[SEMIweather]

I would be very surprised if the cap breaks before the cold front moves through overnight. I do think there will probably be a line of storms that develops along the cold front but this should just result in a marginal wind damage threat.

I think I still favor no supercells south of OK-51 or so, but have to partially retract this as I do think chances are trending up for initiation down the dryline late this afternoon/early this evening. We'll see. Hoping for an special 18z sounding from NWS Norman because this is about as low probability/high impact as it gets.

[SoonerDave]

NWS will be doing a sounding at 1pm.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status...xrACDhClQ&s=19

[C_M_25]

Data is already coming in on that sounding. Either I’m crazy or that inversion isn’t as pronounced as this morning.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah DCAPE is down and cap is already eroding in SW OK. Recent models have uptrended a bit too.

[Rixon75]

[SEMIweather]

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status...08003734732802

"120pm update, pt 2 - we're also noticing that our dewpoints may be a bit higher than what some of the models suggest, which could enhance our chances of breaking the cap if that trend continues this afternoon. We'll launch another balloon around 3pm #okwx"

[SEMIweather]

The HRRR is incredibly close to breaking the cap, showing a few small cells down the dryline around 6:00 before they fizzle out shortly thereafter. However, it has dewpoints forecasted approximately two degrees lower than they are in reality at the moment, which could honestly make all the difference. So IDK. This is the largest conditional threat I can remember in some time, even by the standards of a severe weather season that has been defined by conditional threats thus far.

[C_M_25]

I’m getting 83-84 deg at home in north okc currently. Blue skies. I’m getting a bit nervous for this one.

For those of you who have studied these systems for a long time, how does this one rank in difficulty to forecast and energy in the atmosphere?

[PoliSciGuy]

Tornado watch likely coming for our area: https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1520121810599104513

[SEMIweather]

I’m getting 83-84 deg at home in north okc currently. Blue skies. I’m getting a bit nervous for this one.

For those of you who have studied these systems for a long time, how does this one rank in difficulty to forecast and energy in the atmosphere?

I'll chime in with my usual caveats being that I'm not a professional and I just post in these thread because it's a favorite hobby of mine.

I would say in terms of uncertainty vis-à-vis risk, today has certainly ended up being fairly notable. I really was not paying too much attention at the beginning of the day as I felt that initiation was very unlikely, but the combination of (a) the morning stratus clearing out more than I expected, (b) dewpoints refusing to mix out at all even as skies have cleared, and (c) somewhat more favorable short-range model solutions have all definitely piqued my curiosity. I still lean towards no initiation south of a Hennessey to Stillwater line, but I'm now thinking that there's maybe a 30% chance that the cap breaks in the vicinity of the OKC Metro, whereas six hours ago I was thinking there was only about a 5-10% chance of that happening. And certainly if anything manages to form I would expect a significant severe weather event.

With regards to the potential range of outcomes, I don't necessarily think that today is too difficult. I'm still basically expecting one of two possible outcomes... (a) the cap holds and no storms form, or (b) the cap breaks and we get 2-3 isolated supercells initiating along the dryline in Central/Southern Oklahoma between 4:00 and 7:00, all of which would likely carry a significant severe weather threat. Generally speaking, I feel that the most difficult events are the ones with a lot of morning convection which can then muddle the atmospheric picture later in the day. We did not get anything in that regard this morning, so we're basically left with a classic severe weather setup, but one that is 100% conditional on the cap being broken later this afternoon.

As always, my advice to anyone who is nervous on these type of days is that by staying weather aware, you're doing more than probably 80% of the population, and also that tornadoes rarely touch down without prior warning. The local news stations tend to be horrible in the lead-up to these events because unfortunately, fear drives higher ratings, and for that reason I always recommend following the Storm Prediction Center and NWS Norman first and foremost, because as a governmental organization their only mission is to provide the most accurate forecast possible. If/when storms actually do form, I do honestly think the news stations do a very good job relaying information in those nowcast situations as they tend to have very good storm chaser coverage, plus helicopters if things get really dicey. I personally prefer KOCO but your mileage may vary.