April 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Slight chance of a few severe storms devloping right over OKC. Best chances are towards Tulsa.

[kukblue1]

I wasn't buying the chance of storms today because of the strong cap but the models runs have been locked in on a storm North Metro up 35 for a few model runs now.

Tuesday still early but Tuesday could be a day where there are a couple of tornadoes on the ground at the same time in the State. The Dry line is going to stretch the whole state from North to South. If they are individual storms watch out. Still Looking like i-35 east but a few models are hinting it will be a bit more west of I-35. Also Northern Oklahoma/Kansas seems to be the sweet spot but it really could be anywhere along I-35

[kukblue1]

Thunderstorm watch coming out for North Central Oklahoma. Sunday 8:30. Front is just north of the Metro. 2 hours ago Wiley Post has North Wind Will Rogers had South Wind. Both are back to a South wind as of 8:30

Tuesday all heck could break loose or the cap holds and there is nothing or only a few storms. Too early to call.

[Anonymous.]

Tuesday still looks like a coin flip for development of storms along I-35. Better chance just east as kukblue1 has been mentioning lately.

Could have first High Risk of 2022 for Mississippi Valley on Wednesday with large scale tornado outbreak. This area has been slammed by severe storms for months.

[jn1780]

It’s not just you.

https://theconversation.com/tornadoe...o-alley-178863

The past several years late April/ May has been less active than usual which is usually historically have been the most active period for western and central Oklahoma.

[Anonymous.]

SPC trimming back tornado threat in KS and OK with latest D2 outlook. Probabilities cut in half and hatched area removed, save for Iowa.

At this time there is trend to a more linear development pattern if storms do develop down south into OK.

[LakeEffect]

SPC trimming back tornado threat in KS and OK with latest D2 outlook. Probabilities cut in half and hatched area removed, save for Iowa.

At this time there is trend to a more linear development pattern if storms do develop down south into OK.

It does leave OK in the 30% hail hatch though...

[C_M_25]

Strange. The ingredients are there for a severe weather outbreak but none of the models are showing anything significant whatsoever developing. Looks like the cap is going to be too strong or possibly not enough heating at the surface to overcome it.

[SEMIweather]

No forcing to speak of will do it. Personally feel we’ll be downgraded to a Slight Risk in the 6z Day One Outlook unless this evening’s model suite is much more robust than the solutions that have been shown thus far.

Still expecting a major wildfire event tomorrow over the western third of the state and especially in the Panhandles.

[kukblue1]

No convergence along the the dry line meaning that the winds in front of the dry line and behind the dry line are from the south. Storm system from Texas sneaking in the Southeast Oklahoma might cause sinking air in central Oklahoma and cloud cover. Also the cap is going to be very strong. That's why when you look at a computer model you may not see any storms in Oklahoma. Not saying things couldn't drastically change but that's how it's playing out right now

[kukblue1]

The latest HRRR shows nothing for Oklahoma for tomorrow. Won't be surprised if they only put us in a slight risk tomorrow as a just in case situation

[Anonymous.]

^ Yes, that looks like the move at this time. Slight risk for anything that does develop, but very low chance of development. Best chance is down near the Red River and far E OK.

OKC likely will see no storms from this system, perhaps a rumble of thunder and a shower early Wednesday morning with the front coming through with blowing smoke and dust.

[kukblue1]

^ Yes, that looks like the move at this time. Slight risk for anything that does develop, but very low chance of development. Best chance is down near the Red River and far E OK.

OKC likely will see no storms from this system, perhaps a rumble of thunder and a shower early Wednesday morning with the front coming through with blowing smoke and dust.

Some TV station this morning was pushing hard this morning for storms. Not saying which one but never once showed a future view of what the radar might look like. Maybe because there was nothing to show? Since when can't we trust the short term model output? SMH

[kukblue1]

And as soon as I post that the 10am HRRR run show a big storm by Paul's Valley around sunset. I think I can I think I can. Just one run and the only storm it's showing. Stay tuned.

[kukblue1]

3pm update. If I hear the word IF one more time today. Seriously. If I walk across the street I could get hit by a car. If I walk up stairs I could trip and fall. The cap is still very strong. Super Strong. Only a couple runs of the HRRR early today showed storms down by the Red River and even those have gone away.. Might get rain over night with the actually cold front but that's probably going to be it.

[MagzOK]

We heard gloom and doom for seven days from the local fear mongering meteorologists about today and all of a sudden it was yesterday they came out and backed off calling it conditional. They are totally out for getting people to stick to the channel to 'be advised' or 'forewarned' for what's to come....or not. It really is a disservice. Meanwhile, another local internet meteorologist called it conditional for the entire seven says.

[Anonymous.]

This storm is putting out an incredible April blizzard across North Dakota. 40 mph winds with 2 feet of snow. Absolutely unlivable outside.

Still monitoring satellite across OK for any towering cumulus, but nothing significant as of around 4:30pm.

[kukblue1]

We heard gloom and doom for seven days from the local fear mongering meteorologists about today and all of a sudden it was yesterday they came out and backed off calling it conditional. They are totally out for getting people to stick to the channel to 'be advised' or 'forewarned' for what's to come....or not. It really is a disservice. Meanwhile, another local internet meteorologist called it conditional for the entire seven says.

On the bright side some people might of cleaned out their Tornado Shelters. I was not one of them but pro tip. If you have one in your garage put a mat over it keeps it pretty clean.

[jn1780]

Storms shelter manufacturers may have to rebrand their product as underground storage space or bomb shelters if this longterm pattern shift is here to stay.

[soonerguru]

Wind is becoming my biggest gripe about Oklahoma these days. And I feel like that gripe extends into the plains as a whole. Ask people in the valley of Colorado how the wind has been lately. The wind from E CO and W KS down through the panhandles and into W/C OK is basically nonstop. The only thing that changes is the direction it comes from.

For OKC, we should see a small break tonight into Saturday as the shift from NW to W to SW takes place. Then Sunday begins our constant 20mph S wind that plagues our Springs here.

I love OKC and the climate in general, but the wind will make me move someday.

It really blows (ha!). However, this may be small comfort but April is always the windiest month of the year here, so that indicates a lessening as time goes on. Once we get past May storm season I always relish the late spring / early summer weather here.

[SEMIweather]

Large wildfire ongoing to the west of Elk City/to the north of Sayre. Clearly visible on satellite imagery. Has burned approximately 8,000 acres so far according to the below tweet.

https://twitter.com/OKForestService/...31804776431629

[C_M_25]

This has been one of the stranger systems that has moved through during this time of year. It’s pretty rare not to get at least a few storms with this setup.

[kukblue1]

8pm SPC has dropped all risk for the Metro and pretty much all of the Norman NWS area. You should see how next week looks though. WOW

[Anonymous.]

I know you won't believe me after about 2 straight weeks of 20mph winds, but it looks like tomorrow (Thursday) we could have almost no wind.

It kicks right back up on Friday, though.

[HangryHippo]

What’s causing all this sustained wind? I don’t remember it being this windy for this long.