March 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[OkiePoke]

Is this cloud cover expected to break this afternoon?

[HangryHippo]

Hang on people. Next Tuesday is looking pretty good for storms. The media hype train might be full swing sooner than later. That being said take a deep breath it's still a week away and will change every 6 hours between now and than.

I think you may need the deep breath, lol.

[kukblue1]

I think you may need the deep breath, lol.

LOL I'm breathing well today cause we are going to be capped. Thank you for your concern. Check with me tomorrow when things change again and I need a defibrillator.

[kukblue1]

SPC has put a slight risk out already for the western half of Oklahoma for Tuesday 3-29-22. Deep Breath

[Anonymous.]

Yes, temperatures will be above normal heading into next week. High fire danger for Monday-Tuesday with strong S winds ahead of the storm.

[kukblue1]

Looking like it might be an I-35 eastern Oklahoma event with a strong cap holding across western Oklahoma. It's only Saturday it will change again but that is how it's looking to me right now.

[kukblue1]

Timing also might be an issue with this system. This systems might have a lot of issues to overcome. Timing, Cap, Instability. Now if you know anyone in Mississippi on Wednesday give them the heads up now.

[Anonymous.]

^ kukblue1 pretty much covered it. Looks like severe threat for OKC is not particularly high for late Tuesday evening. We will have an initial 2-5% tornado probability and 15% hail on early storms that stay isolated. We should see storms become relatively linear or clustered and move quickly east.

Will be good to knock some pollen out of the air.

[kukblue1]

Does look like a pretty good Squall line moving into the metro around 10 with some quick spin up tornadoes possible. Moisture return today a little more than expected. Dewpoints up to 53 in the metro today. Than again as I look Wichita Fall 43 dewpoint. Dallas only 50 dewpoints. So we will see if we can get some deeper moisture in here tomorrow.

[SEMIweather]

HRRR is trending upwards somewhat with regards to both coverage and intensity. Not expecting anything major but probably a decent shot at some strong/severe storms in the Metro between 9 p.m. and 1 a.m. tonight.

[kukblue1]

HRRR is trending upwards somewhat with regards to both coverage and intensity. Not expecting anything major but probably a decent shot at some strong/severe storms in the Metro between 9 p.m. and 1 a.m. tonight.

Any chance this cap holds and everything stays east of I-35

[SEMIweather]

I don’t think so, if anything the trend has been towards initiation further to the west.

[Anonymous.]

MD is already out for W OK. Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued in the next hour. The CU field is pretty robust and is indicative of numerous points of development along the dryline. So we should see a semi-broken line of storms approach I-35 tonight.

[Bunty]

And so, it was issued. Covers all okc metro:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASH ITA

[C_M_25]

So it’s supposed to storm tonight, right?

Looks like the cap is really holding on for now.

[SEMIweather]

Non-severe storms moving into the Metro currently. These are rather disorganized and would not expect them to intensify much. Best chance for severe weather is likely around Norman and points SE as the area of storms down there looks more promising, and has been shown by the HRRR to become the dominant portion of the complex as the night goes on.

[kukblue1]

Cap over the metro was strong. Strong storm Down by rush springs at 10pm needs to be watched.

[chssooner]

It's almost comical how Tinker always gets missed by rain storms. Pathetic, and amazing the area around it hasn't fried, since it hardly gets any rain. There is a small gap in storms, and it will, of course, avoid Mid-Del completely.

[RangersYear]

Thank you for the updates. I check this forum before bad weather forecasts. Keep up the good work.

[Anonymous.]

The broken line part was OKC.

[kukblue1]

So what happen? I got a trace of rain over by outlet mall. I know the computers models late were treading towards a broken line but nothing like the morning runs. I assume either the cap was too strong or the were just too elevated. We need to be taking a serious look at computer models or tone now the narrative a bit.

[SEMIweather]

IMO, the HRRR pretty much nailed the event last night. It showed a broken line of storms with most of the action near and south of I-40, which is largely what happened as Norman and points south got hit, while a weaker/disorganized area of storms moved through NW OKC. The north end of the main area of storms was maybe 20-25 miles further south of what was modeled and ultimately you’re never going to have a perfect modeling of conditions with current technology so all things considered, I don’t think a 20-25 mile error is bad at all. There’s a reason why SPC Outlooks show the probability of severe weather occurring within a 25 mile radius of any given point.

[kukblue1]

IMO, the HRRR pretty much nailed the event last night. It showed a broken line of storms with most of the action near and south of I-40, which is largely what happened as Norman and points south got hit, while a weaker/disorganized area of storms moved through NW OKC. The north end of the main area of storms was maybe 20-25 miles further south of what was modeled and ultimately you’re never going to have a perfect modeling of conditions with current technology so all things considered, I don’t think a 20-25 mile error is bad at all. There’s a reason why SPC Outlooks show the probability of severe weather occurring within a 25 mile radius of any given point.

I'll agree towards the middle of the day it did a great job but the 24 hours before not so much. All the more reason we need to wait the morning of the event to be putting out charts and maps. JMO

[Anonymous.]

Looks like a quick clipper-type system will have a shot at bringing us some rain and storms Friday night. We need the rain right now. Otherwise Saturday looks fantastic with light winds and 70s. Sunday the strong south winds begin cranking up again ahead of another system.