February 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Starting February thread as this upcoming event will fall within.

Canadian and GFS models both agree large storm will impact the plains beginning Wednesday. Obviously it is too early to talk about tracks or amounts. But we do know the drought conditions across the west half of OK and into TX will play a role in this. One thing that does look pretty certain at this time is these will be coldest temps of the season so far. We could see air temps near and below zero heading into the following days, and extreme levels of this cold where any snowpack may be.

[Bill Robertson]

I REALLY pray this one is a bust. I'm short staffed due to protocols and much ice/snow would shut our facility down which technically would put me in breach of contract.

[Anonymous.]

This is going to be spicy.

[BG918]

I REALLY pray this one is a bust. I'm short staffed due to protocols and much ice/snow would shut our facility down which technically would put me in breach of contract.

We need the moisture BAD. If this plays out it could put a serious dent in the drought especially with the rain ahead of the ice/snow

[Bill Robertson]

We need the moisture BAD. If this plays out it could put a serious dent in the drought especially with the rain ahead of the ice/snow

I understand that. But Snow/ice makes me and my crew work nonstop 24/7 until the event is over. Liquid moisture I'm 100% for. And remember 10 inches of snow is equal to 1 inch of rain.

[SoonerDave]

Sure don't need the ice.

[Anonymous.]

Winter Storm Watch is out for almost the entire state covering from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

Models are in pretty good agreement about precipitation being rain/drizzle Tuesday night which eventually turns into freezing rain and sleet at some point Wednesday. However, there is some wide variation in how deep the cold air mass is across the models. Thus, a classic winter storm forecast for Oklahoma, nearly impossible to tell until it is imminent. So of course just pay attention to updates every 6 hours, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

As for snow totals, a couple forecast models are anticipating a prolonged snow event for Late Wed into Thurs after an initial blast of freezing rain and sleet/snow mix. This would be from a classic 'wrap-around' snow on the backside of the main low. However, dry air cutting off moisture flow is a very high risk with these storms and it could basically eliminate any measurable snow being produced. Nowcast situation will be done on this scenario, but you can look into NW TX and into the PH to see the health of that play out.

We could see some Ice Storm Warnings added to the fray for localized areas (especially SE of I-44) and also could see some localized Blizzard warnings for areas on the flipside.

One thing is a guarantee, it will be very cold and windchills for Thursday and Friday will be dangerous. The weekend will likely see some areas near air temps of zero if there is a decent snowpack in place.

[catcherinthewry]

I am flying out Wednesday AM. Should I try to change my flight to Tuesday or is this something that Will Rogers can handle w/o disruption?

[Anonymous.]

I would think Wednesday AM departures will run okay. But by afternoon, delays will likely mount. WRWA is really bad at winter weather.

[catcherinthewry]

I would think Wednesday AM departures will run okay. But by afternoon, delays will likely mount. WRWA is really bad at winter weather.

Thanks

[BoulderSooner]

Winter Storm Watch is out for almost the entire state covering from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

Models are in pretty good agreement about precipitation being rain/drizzle Tuesday night which eventually turns into freezing rain and sleet at some point Wednesday. However, there is some wide variation in how deep the cold air mass is across the models. Thus, a classic winter storm forecast for Oklahoma, nearly impossible to tell until it is imminent. So of course just pay attention to updates every 6 hours, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

As for snow totals, a couple forecast models are anticipating a prolonged snow event for Late Wed into Thurs after an initial blast of freezing rain and sleet/snow mix. This would be from a classic 'wrap-around' snow on the backside of the main low. However, dry air cutting off moisture flow is a very high risk with these storms and it could basically eliminate any measurable snow being produced. Nowcast situation will be done on this scenario, but you can look into NW TX and into the PH to see the health of that play out.

We could see some Ice Storm Warnings added to the fray for localized areas (especially SE of I-44) and also could see some localized Blizzard warnings for areas on the flipside.

One thing is a guarantee, it will be very cold and windchills for Thursday and Friday will be dangerous. The weekend will likely see some areas near air temps of zero if there is a decent snowpack in place.

as always thank you

[FighttheGoodFight]

I'll head to the store today for bread and milk. It has been a while.

[SEMIweather]

Category Four French Toast situation for sure lol.

[fortpatches]

Did anyone else feel the earthquake like 8min ago?
I did downtown.

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/...efZmuzUDk46jVw

[Paseofreak]

Yep. NW36th and Penn.

[Roger S]

Did anyone else feel the earthquake like 8min ago?
I did downtown.

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/...efZmuzUDk46jVw

4.5 at Medford

[Thatguy15]

I'll head to the store today for bread and milk. It has been a while.

Milk sandwich? Gross

[midtownokcer]

Love the OK Mesonet

[PoliSciGuy]

Just to show how all over the place these models are, the latest GFS run has us getting ~10 inches(!) of snow by Saturday, while the NAM has us closer to 3. Any snow more than a couple inches is obviously enough to shut things down for a while here, but that's a big difference.

Also not thrilled about the odds of power outages given the ice+wind possibility

[fortpatches]

Just to show how all over the place these models are, the latest GFS run has us getting ~10 inches(!) of snow by Saturday, while the NAM has us closer to 3. Any snow more than a couple inches is obviously enough to shut things down for a while here, but that's a big difference.

Also not thrilled about the odds of power outages given the ice+wind possibility

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...onus&dpdt=&mc=

[Bill Robertson]

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...onus&dpdt=&mc=

tropicaltidbits also has most all of the models

[LakeEffect]

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...onus&dpdt=&mc=

It's tricky - I believe that's 1" of liquid precipitation. At a 10:1 ratio, it would be 10" of snow.

[PoliSciGuy]

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...onus&dpdt=&mc=

Yes there, and under the winter weather tab there's a couple of different snowfall calculations, the aforementioned 10:1 ratio or the Kuchera ratios. Both of these have some issues but that's what makes winter forecasting such a crapshoot.

[kukblue1]

It's tricky - I believe that's 1" of liquid precipitation. At a 10:1 ratio, it would be 10" of snow.

UGH snow fall more than half the time is never 10:1 yet everyone uses it. I think even Mysthbuster did a story about it and said sometimes it's true but everything has to be just perfect.

[Bunty]

It covers nearly all of Oklahoma. Meanwhile, temps in the low 70s in central Oklahoma.

Details:
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow
accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are possible across Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with the higher amounts possible in
northern Oklahoma. In addition, ice accumulations of around one
tenth of an inch or greater are possible mainly in central and
southeastern Oklahoma. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in
hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Information:
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.