February 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[fortpatches]

Yes there, and under the winter weather tab there's a couple of different snowfall calculations, the aforementioned 10:1 ratio or the Kuchera ratios. Both of these have some issues but that's what makes winter forecasting such a crapshoot.

Thank you! I had overlooked that. And thanks to @LakeEffect!

Sorry for the obvious question - I am not accustomed to looking at these maps and trying to get a basic grasp

[PoliSciGuy]

Update from NWS Norman. Looks like the timing and amounts are still big question marks (and probably will be right up til the event starts):

https://twitter.com/nwsnorman/status...741770255?s=21

[C_M_25]

So where did our snowstorm go?!

[kukblue1]

So where did our snowstorm go?!

Still a lot of if's. Dry air might work in some in the middle levels. Snow system on Thursday might break off from the main system and might not be as strong. Storm might track further south and east. Still a lot of if's

[SoonerDave]

Living here most of my life, when it comes to winter weather and wild forecasts, I've learned to hedge my bets and never underestimate the power of the dry slot. There seems to always be a huge implicit bust risk. We'll see.

[Rixon75]

[Anonymous.]

Short-range models are trending for NE OK to get the best shot at the most snow. The dryslot implications will determine points to the SW. Last night many models brought in massive pocket of dry air that erodes the snow plume Wednesday night. However, this morning the models are showing this effect less.

Right now I would guess Tulsa and points N and E could see 6"+.
OKC I would guess maybe 3".

Right now the GEM, CAN, and the NAM are forecasting massive dryslot erosion. The HRRR and GFS are both favoring less erosion. If somehow the low closes off the dryslot and we get continuous precipitation along the I-44 corridor, we could see double that in OKC. The gradient will be very tight.

[Bunty]

WINTER STORM WARNING:

Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Harper - Hughes - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Tue, 2/1 9:00pm Updated: Tue, 2/1 12:02pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Thu, 2/3 6:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Likely

Details:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Accumulating snow and ice expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in northwest,
northern, central, and southwest Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. Ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch or
more in portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma. Winds
gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Northwestern, northern, central, and southern Oklahoma,
and portions of western north Texas
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in
hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Information:
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
In Oklahoma, call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7 for road information. In
Texas, call 8 0 0 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

[Rixon75]

[midtownokcer]

I can't make out the numbers even after clicking the image. Does this show totals trending upward?

[Achilleslastand]

I can't make out the numbers even after clicking the image. Does this show totals trending upward?

I believe{?} it says 10 inches for the metro area.

[Rixon75]

I believe{?} it says 10 inches for the metro area.

Geez, sorry guys. I can't figure out how to get the image larger.

Here's the link: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...s_sc&dpdt=&mc=

[Anonymous.]

This is where Oklahoma's fate lies. This slot of dry air will likely be pushed east and erode the snow plume. The area I circled in black will be where to look for the health of the low pressure center - if that area can remain moisture-rich with continuous development, it could choke off dry air and result in dramatically different outcomes for points NE.

[SoonerDave]

Around here, my $$ is on the dry slot.

[Bill Robertson]

Around here, my $$ is on the dry slot.

Yeah, one model shows snow hell but most don't.

[Anonymous.]

All models tonight pretty much eliminate any meaningful snow from the wrap-around. So the initial wave of snow that blows up from NW TX on Wednesday will be the main snow event, then it will be about the frigid temps.

The dryslot is still king of this event. Basically every model is anticipating the dry air moving in from the W and shutting the snow machine off. But there is wide variation of the timing of this. And obviously the slower it is, the more snow that falls.

I would still put OKC around 3-4". Tulsa area around 6" and points east of Tulsa could localize 8-10". I also anticipate a localized area of SC OK getting close to some 6"+ amounts.

Morning and lunchtime data Wednesday will be the best we have for a forecast, then meteorologists will be staring at water vapor imagery for the rest of the afternoon.

[Boop]

Is Spring here yet?

[Anonymous.]

This morning model runs are emphasizing more snow along and just south of I-44 corridor. There is a warm layer of air at higher elevation over a large chunk of the state at this time, so sleet falling could be skewing the models interpretation of heavier snow when it is actually sleet.

Again, the dry air rushing in behind and shutting off the snow is the largest factor in this event for snow totals.

[Anonymous.]

I like the GEM here. Seems pretty reasonable.

[BoulderSooner]

that would be great

[FighttheGoodFight]

Snow sounds fine. Glad the ice chances have been decreasing

[kukblue1]

SMH One station sends out a tweet totals going up maybe a foot of snow 2 hours later another station tweets out dry air moving in 3-4 inches. SMH National Weather service 3-5 which they pretty much always have been. They might of been 4-6 at one time but they haven't been all over the place like the tv stations.

[Anonymous.]

SMH One station sends out a tweet totals going up maybe a foot of snow 2 hours later another station tweets out dry air moving in 3-4 inches. SMH National Weather service 3-5 which they pretty much always have been. They might of been 4-6 at one time but they haven't been all over the place like the tv stations.

Is that for OKC? Claiming a foot of snow in OKC is beyond bold.

[kukblue1]

Is that for OKC? Claiming a foot of snow in OKC is beyond bold.

It was for "Central Oklahoma" and by late Thursday. Here it is: 8 AM WINTER STORM UPDATE: Snow gets going this afternoon. The winter storm howls tonight with NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. Data keep uping the totals and some areas in central OK could be near 12" by late Thursday. Take this event seriously and spread the word!

[Anonymous.]

NWS launching special balloons all day. It shows the warm layer aloft is eroding. Which means less ice/sleet chances, and direct-to-snow path is being paved for OKC.