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Thread: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

  1. #151

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    And there's our Tornado Watch for most of the state.

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 215
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1155 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Northern and Central Oklahoma

    * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
    700 PM CDT.

    * Primary threats include...
    A couple tornadoes possible
    Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
    Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and intensify through the
    afternoon across the watch area, with supercells possible. Very
    large hail and damaging winds are the main threat, but there is some
    concern for a few tornadoes in the most intense cells.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
    north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Clinton OK
    to 20 miles south southeast of Fayetteville AR. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

  2. #152

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Thankfully only 40/20 tornado probabilities. Wind and hail will be the big issues, but things are definitely kicking off earlier than a normal outbreak

  3. #153

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    We may see storms form a train line and the southern edges will be potential spin-up zones. Flash flooding will be high threat under the train.

  4. #154

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Watonga to Perry area looks primed for a flood threat. I’m ambivalent about the threat to the Metro with this first round as nothing south of I-40 looks to have too much juice as of right now, although the cell to the SW of Hinton is trying.

  5. #155

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    Most people with an interest in meteorology are not rooting for a high end several weather outbreak just like most epidemiologist are not rooting for pandemic's to happen. We're talking about the 1% of scenarios when nature shows its ugly side. 99% of the time nature is interesting and fascinating. I'm sure there are psychologists who find serial killers fascinating, but I wouldn't accuse them of wishing for more serial killers.
    +1

    Non-scientists have some amount of trouble accepting these very nuanced distinctions, but they are distinctions nonetheless.

  6. #156

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Hinton storm is getting more organized but also seems to be making somewhat of a left turn. This may still skirt the northern suburbs but otherwise it’s becoming fairly apparent that the main show for OKC will be this evening. With no early storms to take the juice out of the atmosphere, I definitely think there is potential for significant hail and wind.

  7. #157

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Tornado warning on the Dover cell. The cell further west also is rotating near Hitchcock.

    EDIT: Going to add W of Stillwater to the lead cell, rotation also coming up.

  8. #158

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    News 9 facebook stream: https://www.facebook.com/NEWS9/videos/3909843295801975/

    Some massive hail on these already. Gonna be a bumpy evening.

  9. Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by WheelerD Guy View Post
    +1

    Non-scientists have some amount of trouble accepting these very nuanced distinctions, but they are distinctions nonetheless.
    Having a BS in Botany I definitely wouldn't qualify as a non-scientist. I totally understand that most people interested in meteorology don't root for severe weather, but are fascinated when it does occur. My beef is with people that think a severe weather forecast "looks good" or call it a "bust" when the chance of severe weather lessens. I'm not even accusing them of rooting for destruction or loss of life, but the fact that they hope for severe weather which will sooner or later result in death and destruction rubs me the wrong way.

  10. #160

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Need to keep a watch on the cool front and dryline areas out west as we head toward this evening.

    We could see the current development zone/boundary continue to sag south from current spot in toward C OK. At same time, the cool front will be approaching from the NW. This could create a very prolonged time of storms across C OK.

    I would place high flooding threat all along just N of the metro. Kingfisher, Okarche, trailing off toward Guthrie.


  11. #161

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by catcherinthewry View Post
    Having a BS in Botany I definitely wouldn't qualify as a non-scientist. I totally understand that most people interested in meteorology don't root for severe weather, but are fascinated when it does occur. My beef is with people that think a severe weather forecast "looks good" or call it a "bust" when the chance of severe weather lessens. I'm not even accusing them of rooting for destruction or loss of life, but the fact that they hope for severe weather which will sooner or later result in death and destruction rubs me the wrong way.
    When a forecast looks good for storms then it means things are lining up for storms. I don’t think people think that storms, specifically tornadoes and hail, are a good thing necessarily. Forecast busts are a big deal. You may think that we’re frustrated that we didn’t see any action when we use the term “bust;” however, busted forecasts erodes confidence in the process. It sets up a boy who cried wolf situation and when the big one hits and people aren’t listening, then you have a huge problem. Also, missing out on rain is also a big deal and it’s a bummer when it happens, I.e. bust...

    Also, this is a public forum and there are those that do get excited when weather like this comes through. I actually enjoy thunderstorms and severe weather so am always a little disappointed when things don’t materialize. Any meteorologist who says that they aren’t a little bummed that a forecast doesn’t develop is lying to you as well. There’s always that small part of them that get excited when a stormy pattern sets up. It’s why many people chase that degree...they love weather!!

  12. Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by C_M_25 View Post
    I actually enjoy thunderstorms and severe weather so am always a little disappointed when things don’t materialize.
    Like I said, sooner or later that severe weather that you enjoy is going to bring death and destruction. You think that it will never happen to you. So did I, until it did. And I know I'm not the only one on this forum who has suffered great loss from Oklahoma's weather.

  13. #163

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Lots of juicy air remains to the W and SW of OKC, and this mess to the north could drop an outflow boundary that could make stuff that pops up later this afternoon even worse.

  14. #164

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Outflow boundary from the Kingfisher supercell is meandering south across the Metro right now, currently located between Edmond and The Village. Will be interested to see if this is a focus for any storms in the next hour or two. Currently on radar you can see some elevated showers developing just north of Downtown and then racing off to the NE.

  15. #165

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by catcherinthewry View Post
    Like I said, sooner or later that severe weather that you enjoy is going to bring death and destruction. You think that it will never happen to you. So did I, until it did. And I know I'm not the only one on this forum who has suffered great loss from Oklahoma's weather.
    Its not personal - its not about you. People can feel multiple things for multiple reasons.

    The recent hailstorm that pounded Norman. I live in Moore. I had some nice rain and a nice light show. I enjoyed it. I generally enjoy thunderstorms like that. This was my experience in my particular location. I also feel sympathy for those in Norman who were hit harder than I was and had to deal with hail damage. These feelings and experiences are not mutually exclusive and enjoying my piece of the thunderstorm doesn't mean I also enjoyed people getting windows busted out or injured from the hail further south.

  16. #166

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    I don't know about you all but to me not being from Oklahoma and living in different parts of the country and have family all over this is crazy. Wall to wall coverage for a severe thunderstorm warning would not provide over 2 1/2 hours of coverage anywhere else in the Country. A tornado warning would and there would be cut ins ever 15 minutes or so during a commercial but for over 2 hours NO

  17. #167

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0771.html

    Mesoscale Discussion 0771
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0325 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...northern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 215...

    Valid 272025Z - 272200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 215 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms will remain capable of producing large to very
    large hail, damaging wind and a couple tornadoes next couple hours
    mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon storms continue developing across
    northern OK. Most thunderstorm development has become confined to
    the cool side of a couple of outflow boundaries. These storms are
    probably slightly elevated, but will remain capable of producing
    mainly isolated large hail and damaging wind. Farther west
    additional storms are beginning to develop along the cold front
    across northwest OK. These storms will be surface based and will
    likely become rapidly severe and organized as supercells shortly
    after initiation. VWP from Twin Lakes show the mid-level winds have
    strengthened to 50 kt and size of low-level hodographs has increased
    slightly. The best potential for isolated tornadoes will probably be
    with storms that initially develop across western and west central
    OK then move east and interact with the modifying outflow boundary
    before becoming slightly elevated as they move deeper into the
    cooler side of the boundary.

    ..Dial.. 05/27/2021

  18. #168

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kukblue1 View Post
    I don't know about you all but to me not being from Oklahoma and living in different parts of the country and have family all over this is crazy. Wall to wall coverage for a severe thunderstorm warning would not provide over 2 1/2 hours of coverage anywhere else in the Country. A tornado warning would and there would be cut ins ever 15 minutes or so during a commercial but for over 2 hours NO
    Honestly I could never be a local TV met. Imagine standing up there on screen trying to drum up excitement that doesn't exist. I would feel like I was wearing clown makeup. I remember years ago I was watching local coverage of an OKC channel and lightning had struck an oil pump jack structure and it was on fire. The helicopter guys and the TV met were both commentating on it, calling it stationary tornado. It took them way too long to realize it was smoke.

  19. #169

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Honestly I could never be a local TV met. Imagine standing up there on screen trying to drum up excitement that doesn't exist. I would feel like I was wearing clown makeup. I remember years ago I was watching local coverage of an OKC channel and lightning had struck an oil pump jack structure and it was on fire. The helicopter guys and the TV met were both commentating on it, calling it stationary tornado. It took them way too long to realize it was smoke.
    I'm just worried that after 3 hours of coverage people have tuned out and if stuff fires to the west and interacts with the boundary over okc things could get interesting and no one will be watching any more cause they are already drained

  20. #170

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kukblue1 View Post
    I don't know about you all but to me not being from Oklahoma and living in different parts of the country and have family all over this is crazy. Wall to wall coverage for a severe thunderstorm warning would not provide over 2 1/2 hours of coverage anywhere else in the Country. A tornado warning would and there would be cut ins ever 15 minutes or so during a commercial but for over 2 hours NO
    You mean you don't find 2 1/2 hours of windshield wipers compelling?

    They can get 4, sometimes 5, windshields on screen at once!

  21. #171

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Lots of storms firing now. Extreme flash flood threat just N of OKC metro right now.

    Cool front and outflow boundary both developing storms that will train over C OK.

  22. #172

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Still looking at a 6-8 p.m. timeframe for OKC proper to get hit, I think. Northern suburbs are already getting in on the action as the complex continually backbuilds. Cold front currently over NW OK will continue to push everything slowly south over time. The complex should gradually become more progressive which should hopefully limit a significant flooding threat for OKC, but with rainfall rates being what they are there will certainly be a risk of flash flooding. Hail/wind reports have so far been somewhat underwhelming IMO, but we still have a lot of instability and decent shear so I would still expect some severe weather. Isolated tornadoes also possible with any outflow boundary interactions.

  23. #173

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Mainly flash flood threat continuing as storms coming into all of the OKC metro.

  24. #174

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    The first toad-floater at my house in what seems like forever.

  25. #175

    Default Re: May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

    Drove out to Draper to watch it roll in. Decent shelf and probably some 40-50 mph winds. At this point I would not expect any significant severe threat for the Metro. Like Anonymous said, mainly a flood threat as the southward motion really has not picked up yet, though it should start to do so within an hour or two.

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