February 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[jn1780]

I still think solar minimum combined with the unpredictable nature of climate change is a contributing factor. Climate change has been happening over 20+ years now, but yet we are seeing some of the coldest temps in decades. Scientist remain skeptical to this idea, but there is still a lot we don't know about how solar cycles affects the weather. There is definitely correlation happening with the solar minimum, whether its causation remains unknown. If solar min is causing colder winters, expect a cold decade.

[TheTravellers]

Good Twitter thread, but absolutely pathetic information.

https://twitter.com/KassieMcClung/st...97951806005250

"Brandy Wreath (director of the public utility division for OCC) said they didn't even have models to look at this situation because it's unprecedented."

So the programmers that did the modeling just stopped and said "This'll never happen, we can go home now"? FAIL!

[OKCRT]

There should be remediation plans for that (heaters - thanks, jn1780), or manual ways to sweep the snow off the panels. These companies have failed if they didn't ever plan for something like this, especially with climate change making everything extreme.

ONG said on the OKC news conference that just ended (youtube has it) it could be days or weeks to restore gas if they lose their supply. They have to turn off every place that has gas, get their supply back, do leak detection and turn the gas back on at every place.

Back in the early 80s they lost a bunch (like thousands) of customers in Fort Smith due to high water content in the cng when temps went down to around 0. Had to clean the Natural Gas dehydrators,seprators at well locations to remove the water from the gas then go to every home and relight pilots. Big deal when they lose gas as no quick fix.

[BoulderSooner]

I still think solar minimum combined with the unpredictable nature of climate change is a contributing factor. Climate change has been happening over1000's of years now, but yet we are seeing some of the coldest temps in decades. Scientist remain skeptical to this idea, but there is still a lot we don't know about how solar cycles affects the weather. There is definitely correlation happening with the solar minimum, whether its causation remains unknown. If solar min is causing colder winters, expect a cold decade.

fixed it for you

[securityinfo]

So the programmers that did the modeling just stopped and said "This'll never happen, we can go home now"? FAIL!

Sounds pandemically familiar (basic issue occurred during H1N1 planning in '08)

[C_M_25]

seems like the models are ramping up snow totals again. They are all coming into a bit more agreement too for the area. Most of the snow in SE oklahoma. Looks like central oklahoma could be in that 3-5 inch range (10:1) with some areas getting more depending on snow banding. Does that sound about right to the meteorologists in the group?

[TheTravellers]

Sounds pandemically familiar (basic issue occurred during H1N1 planning in '08)

Yeah, ridiculous now and ridiculous then. "Unprecedented" does not mean "throw up your hands and blither around like idiots not doing anything except saying "it's unprecedented" over and over again". You can still *plan* for unprecedented events, and then try to ensure that what's behind your plan is solid.

[BoulderSooner]

most of the locals saying between 5-8 for tomorrow into Wednesday

[TheTravellers]

Apparently Cherokee Nation will be closing businesses and casinos tonight to help out our sad power grid.

[mugofbeer]

OK's power grid is fine.

OG&E said they won't be having any rolling blackouts.

You need to count your blessings. Rolling blackouts are occurring in Kansas but especially in Texas. Dallas is having them and 40% of Austin is out. It's great Texas has 20% of their power generation through wind but it doesn't help if your wind turbines are frozen and not generating.

[Bill Robertson]

seems like the models are ramping up snow totals again. They are all coming into a bit more agreement too for the area. Most of the snow in SE oklahoma. Looks like central oklahoma could be in that 3-5 inch range (10:1) with some areas getting more depending on snow banding. Does that sound about right to the meteorologists in the group?

Just looked at GFS and NAM. Between the two it's 2-6 so 3-5 is close. HRRR is showing 4 in the metro. NOAA says 1-3 Tuesday night then flurries Wednesday.

[C_M_25]

OK's power grid is fine.

OG&E said they won't be having any rolling blackouts.

You need to count your blessings. Rolling blackouts are occurring in Kansas but especially in Texas. Dallas is having them and 40% of Austin is out. It's great Texas has 20% of their power generation through wind but it doesn't help if your wind turbines are frozen and not generating.

I’m sorry but I will not count my blessing as this entire situation is unacceptable. The lack of planning. The lack of foresight. These executives jumped head first into wind and solar with dollar bill signs in their eyes without thinking about the “what if’s.” This is the greatest freaking country in the world and our infrastructure is being taken down by a week long cold snap.

Here’s a thought. We’re nowhere near ready for renewables to take over...at all...at the moment. Hopefully the country sees what’s happening and wakes up. There is no plan for energy transition. We’re just plodding along hoping for the best. Look at us now.

[kukblue1]

HRRR coming in at 7.0 or 6-7 for the metro. Gfs is 4.6 with 4.5-6 for the Metro. Nam is 7.7 with 6.5-8.5. All have higher amounts south of i-40 That is 0000z updates. Also all of them now have it starting around 4pm which is a slight change it was 2 earlier also lasting until at least noon on Wednesday. So my best guess would be 5-7 NWS is 6-8 for the Metro. This is using a higher ratio than 10:1

[BG918]

I’m sorry but I will not count my blessing as this entire situation is unacceptable. The lack of planning. The lack of foresight. These executives jumped head first into wind and solar with dollar bill signs in their eyes without thinking about the “what if’s.” This is the greatest freaking country in the world and our infrastructure is being taken down by a week long cold snap.

Here’s a thought. We’re nowhere near ready for renewables to take over...at all...at the moment. Hopefully the country sees what’s happening and wakes up. There is no plan for energy transition. We’re just plodding along hoping for the best. Look at us now.

Just wait until gas is banned from new buildings like what is happening in CA cities or severely limiting them in nearby cities like Denver: https://denverite.com/2021/01/26/den...and-buildings/ Then when the electricity goes out you'll really be screwed.

[Bunty]

This is unbe-freaking-leavable....

It's been called off for now at least the one in Stillwater. Maybe Oklahoma's windmills didn't freeze up and have been doing some good with these record breaking wind chills.

[BoulderSooner]

edmond didn't have any blackouts (well at least in my neighborhood.

[SEMIweather]

Not that I expect my post to change anyone's viewpoint (and there's probably a decent chance that this entire series of posts gets deleted anyways), but here's a lengthy Twitter thread explaining that 80+% of the capacity loss in Texas today was natural gas related. https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/sta...48544154664961

[SEMIweather]

It's been called off for now at least the one in Stillwater. Maybe Oklahoma's windmills didn't freeze up and have been doing some good with these record breaking wind chills.

I've been reading a bunch of articles about the Texas situation, and it seems like the main reason Oklahoma has (thus far) avoided a similar crunch is that our grid is better integrated with neighboring states than Texas, which is largely on its own grid.

This is probably the best overview I've seen: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...nder-the-cold/

Another good one: https://spacecityweather.com/the-pow...fixed-tonight/

[mugofbeer]

I’m sorry but I will not count my blessing as this entire situation is unacceptable. The lack of planning. The lack of foresight. These executives jumped head first into wind and solar with dollar bill signs in their eyes without thinking about the “what if’s.” This is the greatest freaking country in the world and our infrastructure is being taken down by a week long cold snap.

Here’s a thought. We’re nowhere near ready for renewables to take over...at all...at the moment. Hopefully the country sees what’s happening and wakes up. There is no plan for energy transition. We’re just plodding along hoping for the best. Look at us now.

The power companies aren't ever going maintain that kind of excess capacity for a once in 50 year event. A few people in my neighborhood have generators but my power has only gone out once or twice in 20 years.

It's not just the "lousy, unacceptible" US infrastructure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...est-power-grid

[mugofbeer]

Also, go over to the Artic Freeze and Oil & Gas Prices thread. Apparently part of the issue isn't infrastructure but a massive spike in NG Spot prices.

[Bunty]

WOW, Stillwater city workers had to go to Kaw Lake to thaw out water pumps to make sure the town had water. But were only able to thaw out two of five pumps, but enough to divert a water crisis. Believe me, I'm anxious to get these below zero temps over with:

https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/st...f5c1c118e.html

[C_M_25]

Also, go over to the Artic Freeze and Oil & Gas Prices thread. Apparently part of the issue isn't infrastructure but a massive spike in NG Spot prices.

Spot prices have skyrocketed because of this massive increase in demand and declining supply.

Annnnnnnnwaaaaayyyuu....SNOW and cold. Back on topic lol. It’s really cold out. The hinges on my door have warped and I can barely close my front door as it’s hanging up on the door frame. Let’s get the last storm out of the way because the GFS is showing 80 deg next week!!! Bring it on!

[C_M_25]

The power companies aren't ever going maintain that kind of excess capacity for a once in 50 year event. A few people in my neighborhood have generators but my power has only gone out once or twice in 20 years.

It's not just the "lousy, unacceptible" US infrastructure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...est-power-grid

That was a fascinating read. Interesting that Germany switched to renewables but is relying on neighbors for the energy they’re not getting from their own generation. What happens when everybody switched to renewables? It all sounds like a major headache. We’ll get it figured out but we still need to maintain conventional supplies so people don’t die during times like these.

[Bunty]

Spot prices have skyrocketed because of this massive increase in demand and declining supply.

Annnnnnnnwaaaaayyyuu....SNOW and cold. Back on topic lol. It’s really cold out. The hinges on my door have warped and I can barely close my front door as it’s hanging up on the door frame. Let’s get the last storm out of the way because the GFS is showing 80 deg next week!!! Bring it on!

80 degrees? Thank God for the little blessings, I mean BIG blessings!

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeeeesh, plumbers are gonna make *bank* these next few days with this rapid temperature change