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Thread: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

  1. #26

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Models mostly seem to be coming into agreement that we'll be getting an advisory-level snowfall, centered around the 6 a.m. - noon period on Sunday. It is an Oklahoma winter weather event, so of course there's going to be some bust potential, but it seems to be a reasonably straightforward forecast compared to most of our events given that precipitation type won't be in question, as temperature profiles definitely support a quick changeover from rain to snow (no ice potential with this system, thankfully). The main question at this point seems to concern where the heaviest banding ends up occurring, which will probably take another few model runs to resolve.

  2. #27

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Forecast models coming in hot since last night with a near perfect track for a wet snowfall across the main body of OK. Emphasis on corridor just north of I-40.

    Exact amounts will depend on speed of the low and the quickness of the rain-snow transition, but most signs point toward a solid shot at somewhere getting a swath of 3-6" of heavy wet snow.




    NAM


    GFS

  3. #28

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    NWS has issued Winter Storm Watch for NW quadrant of OK and Winter Weather Advisory for the surrounded areas.

    This map is a real-time feed from Mesonet and will update as advisories are changed.

  4. #29

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    HRRR 18Z will be in in a few hours and will likely paint a good idea for amounts. Exact location of the heavy snowbands is impossible to predict. The best guess is we will have 1-2 heavy bands setup from SW to NE as the low moves across the state. So depending how the bands morph/pulse throughout the day, some areas could see locally higher totals if under heavier bands for extended periods.

    The general outlook for OKC looks like 2-4 inches.

  5. #30

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Interesting to see the impact of the higher elevations in the Ozarks. 2-4” for areas lower than 1500 ft and 4-6” for areas over 1500 ft in NW Arkansas/far NE Oklahoma.

  6. #31

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    When is it supposed to start snowing?

  7. #32

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Latest runs indicate heavier snow over a larger area. Winter storm warnings have been extended a row of counties further east.

    This is likely a good indication of snow amounts according to the short range models.


  8. #33

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Winter Storm Warning has been expanded again further S and E, including OKC through Tulsa to encompass all points NW of that.

    This is one of the best tracks for a heavy OK snowfall that I have seen in over a decade.


  9. #34

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Just now at my house:


  10. #35

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Lucky you! Wish we had some down here in Duncan.

  11. #36

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Solid 5 inches up here by Penn and 164th. Now to enjoy a day of football, food and relaxation guilt free. Drive safe folks!

  12. #37

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    This is a good day to drink some nice spiced eggnog.

  13. #38

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    This is a good day to drink some nice spiced eggnog.
    No joke. THIS is the kind of winter weather event I can get behind. Make some chili, watch some football or binge a tv show, stay off the road, all while keeping power in our house and not losing tree limbs. Plus I don’t have to work.

  14. #39

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    ^^^^

  15. #40

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Actually provides a very gradual, soaking moisture which is badly needed.

  16. #41

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    One of my huge pet peeves...

    Why on earth do we plow roads, sidewalks and parking lots with this type of snow??

    If they would have just left it alone, it would all be melted but now there will be piles that gradually thaw and then freeze, then thaw... And what would have been gone in a day will now stick around and make a mess for a week.

  17. #42

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    ^^^^

  18. #43

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    One of my huge pet peeves...

    Why on earth do we plow roads, sidewalks and parking lots with this type of snow??

    If they would have just left it alone, it would all be melted but now there will be piles that gradually thaw and then freeze, then thaw... And what would have been gone in a day will now stick around and make a mess for a week.
    Because lots of people have to get out every day. For work. Snow routes for emergency’s. Ect.

  19. #44

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Today's snow was never blocking anyone from getting out or going to work or impeding emergency vehicles.

  20. #45

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Today's snow was never blocking anyone from getting out or going to work or impeding emergency vehicles.
    Even with the plowing. There were a bunch of wrecks in Edmond and on I44 today.

  21. Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Better to plow a little too often than not enough.

  22. #47

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    FYI to everyone who has to drive later tonight or tomorrow morning, be very careful of black ice. Roads are just wet right now but it's going to drop well into the teens overnight so everything is going to refreeze.

  23. #48

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by SEMIweather View Post
    FYI to everyone who has to drive later tonight or tomorrow morning, be very careful of black ice. Roads are just wet right now but it's going to drop well into the teens overnight so everything is going to refreeze.
    Thank you for letting me know, I have to go to work tomorrow unless they call me asking me not to come in

  24. #49

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    The head of Stillwater Emergency Management Agency gave a Facebook Live view of how the snow was like in Stillwater Sunday morning from W. 6th to Downtown here: https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/vid...18547061628754

  25. #50

    Default Re: December 2020 - General Weather Discussion

    Focusing attention to Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Very similar track for another upper level low across the state. However, there will be less moisture to work with across the region so QPF is forecast to be lower. This storm will move on later to likely become a major winter storm event for the NE parts of the country.


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