May 2020 - General Weather Discussion

[Celebrator]

Interestingly, it seemed like there was a swath of moderate to only light rain from just north of the turnpike/I-44 to Guthrie that got under 1 inch. I measured .7" in my backyard. Storms were really training last night weren't they?

[Ronnie Jackson]

What kind of setup are we looking at this week? Seems like it could get very stormy?

[Anonymous.]

Solid rain chances tonight. Cooler for Tuesday with continued spotty rain chances.

Wednesday evening potential for a dryline severe weather setup. However, this will be highly dependent on daytime heating/clearing. Currently marked as a Slight Risk by SPC with emphasis on western OK for significant severe storm potential.

[Anonymous.]

Rain and storms will continue to increase across the TX PH and into W OK heading into evening. Widespread rain and embedded storms will move across main body of OK overnight.

[C_M_25]

Looking at the high res models this morning, it looks like this may be a non-event for OKC. Anybody more in tune with what’s really going on have a comment?

[Anonymous.]

The region is currently under an absolute blanket. It will take some god-tier clearing to get high instability built into most of OK. Western OK looks like the best shot for clearing ahead of the dryline. Storms will likely congeal into a cluster or line as they move across the border, this is why the main threat will be damaging wind. Depending on if air can destabilize further east of that is yet to be seen,

Here is a snapshot showing storms going up later this afternoon, then another showing the remnants and dying line in C OK.

[Anonymous.]

MD is out for far W OK and the panhandle area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming.

Mesoscale Discussion 0575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

Areas affected...portions of the OK/TX Panhandles...western OK and
western TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 131900Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected within the next couple
of hours. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main hazards
with these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...Deepening CU has been noted over the last 30-60 minutes
near the TX/NM boarder over Cochran to Gaines Counties just ahead of
the surface dryline. South/southeasterly low level flow south of
Lubbock southward toward Midland is resulting in strong low level
convergence along the dryline in this area. Furthermore, strong
surface heating is resulting in temperatures in the mid to upper
80s, quickly approaching convective temperatures. 18z regional RAOBs
indicate there is still some MLCIN, but additional heating and
sharpening of the dryline will overcome this in the next couple of
hours.

Additional CU development has been noted further northeast toward
CDS where low level stratus has mostly cleared and MLCAPE has
increased to around 2000 J/kg. Surface analysis also showed a
confluence zone from the eastern TX Panhandle toward far southwest
OK/western north TX in this vicinity. This should foster increasing
low level ascent as a dryline bulge mixes eastward toward the
eastern TX Panhandle. As a result, there could be multiple areas of
convective initiation around the same time this afternoon across the
broader region from the OK/TX panhandle southward through the TX
South Plains.

18z RAOBs show very steep lapse rates across the region, but
overall, effective bulk shear is rather marginal, on the order of
25-35 kt. Some discrete cells could develop initially, especially
near the TX/OK border where low level moisture is deeper and
vertical shear is a bit more favorable. Semi-discrete storms will be
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Nevertheless, a transition
toward clusters/bowing segments is likely to occur within 1-2 hours,
especially further south where the deeply mixed boundary layer will
result in strong downdraft potential.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/13/2020

[kukblue1]

So much for clear skies high near 80 for the metro. 3pm still only 68. BUST

[NikonNurse]

So much for clear skies high near 80 for the metro. 3pm still only 68. BUST

I'm good with a bust. I'm at work and my new car is out there unprotected until 3am .

[jdizzle]

So much for clear skies high near 80 for the metro. 3pm still only 68. BUST

Don't sound so upset!

[OkiePoke]

Here comes the sun

[Anonymous.]

Storms are developing now. Short-range models form a cluster or broken line of storms that comes across the border and eventually dies out as it heads east in the overnight. Best severe threat will be SW and S along the Red River.

[C_M_25]

Bummer. This season has been a big ole flop so far. Not much in the forecast either. Could our storm season be in June this year??

[SOONER8693]

Bummer. This season has been a big ole flop so far. Not much in the forecast either. Could our storm season be in June this year??

You wish.

[C_M_25]

Good grief. Why is there such vitriol when somebody says they enjoy storm season?

Anyway, yes I do. I love watching those big thunderheads roll in from the southwest on my back porch on a warm and humid spring evening.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Good grief. Why is there such vitriol when somebody says they enjoy storm season?

Anyway, yes I do. I love watching those big thunderheads roll in from the southwest on my back porch on a warm and humid spring evening.

Because big and damaging and sometimes deadly storms are an odd thing to like just for your own visual gratification.

[C_M_25]

Because big and damaging and sometimes deadly storms are an odd thing to like just for your own visual gratification.

Tell that to every meteorologist and storm chaser in the state...

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Tell that to every meteorologist and storm chaser in the state...

If given the chance, I gladly will. Thanks.

[catcherinthewry]

Good grief. Why is there such vitriol when somebody says they enjoy storm season?

Anyway, yes I do. I love watching those big thunderheads roll in from the southwest on my back porch on a warm and humid spring evening.

Do you root for hurricanes too? How about earthquakes?

[OKIENW]

I like them too, and the reality is that my rooting for or against them has no impact on what actually happens.

[Plutonic Panda]

I guess I’m a sadist but I love severe storms. Sucks for those that get nailed by it and pay the price but they are very exciting. I love tornados as well when they hit the countryside and stay out of cities. Very pretty to watch.

[Ian Drake]

Looks like we lucked out here for tonight. Thu and Fri are marginal so very unlikely to have anything happen, and then it really clears up and stays that way through the rest of the month. Once June rolls around we should be out of the woods completely. It is really narcissistic and childish to want storms. Some people just aren't right.

[NikonNurse]

Looks like we lucked out here for tonight. Thu and Fri are marginal so very unlikely to have anything happen, and then it really clears up and stays that way through the rest of the month. Once June rolls around we should be out of the woods completely. It is really narcissistic and childish to want storms. Some people just aren't right.

I like them from a photography perspective...love to shoot lightning......when its not over my head....usually as it goes past. Haven't shot a tornado yet, have no desire to really....unless its some distance away and I have a drone.....but I'm too old for that one.....

[Plutonic Panda]

Ian, shut up and crawl back into your hole. It isn’t childish nor narcissistic. Gtfo with that crap.

[Plutonic Panda]

I like them from a photography perspective...love to shoot lightning......when its not over my head....usually as it goes past. Haven't shot a tornado yet, have no desire to really....unless its some distance away and I have a drone.....but I'm too old for that one.....

Be careful, that makes you a child in the eyes of some.