Covid-19 Economic Impact

[jonny d]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ce...ars-2020-07-01

Not hurting North Carolina...I wish Oklahoma City could get something on this scale. Just imagine what that would do for OKC!

[Pete]

United Airlines to send layoff notices to half its employees

Reminder that United was given $5 BILLION by the government just to make it this long.

[catch22]

We are losing $40 million a day, about on par with the other airlines. At the very start (when march numbers dropped off a cliff) we were losing $100 million a day. Have done a good job bringing costs down but there is no remedy for no revenue.

[Pete]

As I've said all the way along, the economy has been artificially propped up by billions in government funds.

But those are starting to run out.

I believe things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

[BoulderSooner]

As I've said all the way along, the economy has been artificially propped up by billions in government funds.

But those are starting to run out.

I believe things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

this is 100% correct

[Jersey Boss]

United Airlines to send layoff notices to half its employees

Reminder that United was given $5 BILLION by the government just to make it this long.

It would have been helpful if Amtrak had gotten 5B.

[PhiAlpha]

United Airlines to send layoff notices to half its employees

Reminder that United was given $5 BILLION by the government just to make it this long.

my friend and 3/4s of his department were laid off at AA in Tulsa last week. It’s going to be rough for the airlines from here on. During an internal presentation a few weeks ago they said this is/will be 4-6 times worse than 9/11’s impact on air travel. My family and I are accustomed to downturns in the O&G market but everyone getting hammered at once like this is just unbelievably difficult.

[Pete]

^

Yes, this kind of flew under the radar but I had a good friend who had worked for AA in Tulsa for decades lose his job permanently last week.

Research shows that AA plans to shed 30% of office workers and 20% of flight-related personnel.

And again, this is after getting $5.8 BILLION from the government in aid and almost another $5 BILLION in a government loan.

[catch22]

The intention was good - the idea was this would be under control and things would be improving by Oct 1. A good intention but they should have just ripped the band-aid off in March. I've been on voluntary furlough since April 26. My voluntary furlough ends on July 26. I will return to work for 2 months and then likely get involuntary furlough.

[gopokes88]

As I've said all the way along, the economy has been artificially propped up by billions in government funds.

But those are starting to run out.

I believe things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

They can’t keep propping it up either. The ran nearly a trillion dollar deficit in June.....just June.

[Teo9969]

It seems the real looming disaster is the entire real estate industry and the subsequent impact on the banks and lending institutions. Not that nobody is talking about it, but it's the most downstream thing that will bear the brunt of the hammer. Lots and lots of under 30s are going to end up back at parents or foregoing the one-bedroom and rooming with people when they otherwise would not have. Lots and lots of small businesses that are even going to make it through this are going to opt to not renew leases and potentially just walk away from them. The restaurant, hospitality, and in-person retail industry is already crushed and likely won't rebound for many months ahead.

Landlords of all shapes and sizes are going to get rocked by lack of tenants. I would assume after the flurry of refinances and home purchase musical chairs dies off, the real effects of un-renewed leases, or people walking away from mortgages/leases will take off and that will start the grave spiral. When those landlords stop paying their banks, it's hard to deal with since real estate is the largest sector of the economy. This time commercial has joined the race, as opposed to 2009 when it was really just residential.

I don't think we know how to do targeted stimulus well enough and Republicans do not have any appetite to pass a multi-trillion dollar stimulus this upcoming session. Without that, I think the hope and stimulus that has been propping up real-estate since March is done for.

[Bunty]

They can’t keep propping it up either. The ran nearly a trillion dollar deficit in June.....just June.

But they will have to prop it up again. It's the presidential election year. I won't mind getting another $1200.

[jerrywall]

But they will have to prop it up again. It's the presidential election year. I won't mind getting another $1200.

I'm rather shocked that there hasn't already been another round of relief checks, especially with it being an election year. That may actually be an impediment to it getting done before November though.

[TheTravellers]

Rent Is Unaffordable In Every Single State In America

"There is not a single state, county or metropolitan area in the U.S. where a minimum-wage worker can afford a modest two-bedroom rental without spending more than 30% of their income. And full-time minimum-wage workers cannot afford to rent a modest one-bedroom home in 95% of U.S. counties."

"Around 20% of America’s 110 million renters face eviction by the end of September, according to the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Fund, a Colorado-based legal group fighting eviction and homelessness, with Latinx and African American renters the most affected. "

[jdizzle]

Rent Is Unaffordable In Every Single State In America

"There is not a single state, county or metropolitan area in the U.S. where a minimum-wage worker can afford a modest two-bedroom rental without spending more than 30% of their income. And full-time minimum-wage workers cannot afford to rent a modest one-bedroom home in 95% of U.S. counties."

"Around 20% of America’s 110 million renters face eviction by the end of September, according to the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Fund, a Colorado-based legal group fighting eviction and homelessness, with Latinx and African American renters the most affected. "

While I am a major proponent of raising the minimum wage, the main counter is that minimum wage jobs are not meant for people outside of high school. I disagree with that, but I don't even think $15 would be enough. Need to somehow get housing and rent costs down.

[TheTravellers]

While I am a major proponent of raising the minimum wage, the main counter is that minimum wage jobs are not meant for people outside of high school. I disagree with that, but I don't even think $15 would be enough. Need to somehow get housing and rent costs down.

Yeah, it's a complex problem, and just raising min wage won't help, everything needs to be fixed, it's just part of the capitalist system that's failing us now. The more immediate problem is the 20% that face eviction, can you imagine what a catastrophe it would be if even 5-10% of renters get evicted? Not to mention homeowners who default, which I haven't read much about, but I'm sure there are some in the same boat as renters. Article says things like this:

It’s not just minimum-wage workers who are affected. The average renter earns $18.22 an hour, according to the report, which is less than what’s needed to afford a modest one- or two-bedroom home.

Particularly stark in the context of a pandemic is the fact that many essential workers don’t make nearly that much. Grocery store cashiers, for example, earn a median wage of $11.61 an hour, while home health and personal care aides earn $12.94, according to the report. Respectively, they would have to work 83 hours and 74 hours per week to afford a basic two-bedroom apartment.

There is a huge variation in housing costs per region. The most affordable state is Arkansas, where the fair market rent for a modest two-bedroom is $738 a month, meaning a full-time worker needs to earn $14.19 an hour to afford it without spending more than 30% of their income. At the other end of the scale, in Hawaii, the fair market rent for a two-bedroom rental is $2,015, meaning a renter needs to earn $38.76 an hour.

[jdizzle]

Yeah, it's a complex problem, and just raising min wage won't help, everything needs to be fixed, it's just part of the capitalist system that's failing us now. The more immediate problem is the 20% that face eviction, can you imagine what a catastrophe it would be if even 5-10% of renters get evicted? Not to mention homeowners who default, which I haven't read much about, but I'm sure there are some in the same boat as renters. Article says things like this:

It’s not just minimum-wage workers who are affected. The average renter earns $18.22 an hour, according to the report, which is less than what’s needed to afford a modest one- or two-bedroom home.

Particularly stark in the context of a pandemic is the fact that many essential workers don’t make nearly that much. Grocery store cashiers, for example, earn a median wage of $11.61 an hour, while home health and personal care aides earn $12.94, according to the report. Respectively, they would have to work 83 hours and 74 hours per week to afford a basic two-bedroom apartment.

There is a huge variation in housing costs per region. The most affordable state is Arkansas, where the fair market rent for a modest two-bedroom is $738 a month, meaning a full-time worker needs to earn $14.19 an hour to afford it without spending more than 30% of their income. At the other end of the scale, in Hawaii, the fair market rent for a two-bedroom rental is $2,015, meaning a renter needs to earn $38.76 an hour.

A lot of European countries have higher homeless rates than in America. I honestly don't know the answer to this issue.

[jerrywall]

A lot of European countries have higher homeless rates than in America. I honestly don't know the answer to this issue.

Totally change how we think about/treat real estate and land, which is a finite resource. The concept of private land ownership vs public trust and the effects of speculation and profiting from public investments will need to be looked at.

[TheTravellers]

A lot of European countries have higher homeless rates than in America. I honestly don't know the answer to this issue.

Me either, but odds are the European countries have a better safety net/way to handle homelessness than the US, which is incredibly overburdened and stressed and most likely in no way could handle a new influx of homeless people as huge as is predicted...

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Me either, but odds are the European countries have a better safety net/way to handle homelessness than the US, which is incredibly overburdened and stressed and most likely in no way could handle a new influx of homeless people as huge as is predicted...

Plus, European safety net is not tied to employment, and employer, like ours.

[TheTravellers]

Plus, European safety net is not tied to employment, and employer, like ours.

Yes, that too, x10000000000! And yes, they have higher taxes, to head off the naysayers, but that's a whole other discussion.

[gopokes88]

European countries are also the size of US states with homogenous cultures and people.

It’s a whole lot easier to get a small country that isn’t diverse on the same page than the US

[Pete]

European countries are also the size of US states with homogenous cultures and people.

It’s a whole lot easier to get a small country that isn’t diverse on the same page than the US

European countries are no more homogeneous than the U.S. Have you been to any of the bigger European cities lately? And maybe the same size geographically as states, but Germany alone has 83 million people where the most populous state, California, doesn't have half their population.

U.S. Covid-19 policies are being driven by state governments, not Washington. You could argue that most U.S. states are more homogeneous than most European countries.

Also, Europe is much denser than the U.S. yet has done a million times better containing this virus and getting it under control.

By all accounts, the U.S. should be performing much better than Europe for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is we had more lead time to deal with this. Yet, they are lightyears ahead and there is simply no way you can excuse that by trying to point out the advantages they have over us in this situation, because I can't see any at all. Unless you are willing to concede it's due to universal health (which they all have), a point you are specifically arguing against.

[jonny d]

European countries are no more homogeneous than the U.S. Have you been to any of the bigger European cities lately? And maybe the same size geographically as states, but Germany alone has 83 million people where the most populous state, California, doesn't have half their population.

U.S. Covid-19 policies are being driven by state governments, not Washington. You could argue that most U.S. states are more homogeneous than most European countries.

Also, Europe is much denser than the U.S. yet has done a million times better containing this virus and getting it under control.

By all accounts, the U.S. should be performing much better than Europe for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is we had more lead time to deal with this. Yet, they are lightyears ahead and there is simply no way you can excuse that by trying to point out the advantages they have over us in this situation, because I can't see any at all. Unless you are willing to concede it's due to universal health (which they all have), a point you are specifically arguing against.

Wait, Oklahoma is homogeneous with California and NY? Or TX is homogeneous with Washington (state) and Massachusetts? The US is far less homogeneous than Europe. Not to mention just the vastness of size, which does matter.

While I agree that the US needs to be doing better, the Constitution is VERY state-heavy. European nations, by comparison, are more country-centric. Germany and Spain are more similar than OK and NY will EVER be. States, especially like OK, where cases are rising greatly, need to step up.

I am not bashing your opinion, just offering mine.

[Pete]

Wait, Oklahoma is homogeneous with California and NY? Or TX is homogeneous with Washington (state) and Massachusetts? The US is far less homogeneous than Europe. Not to mention just the vastness of size, which does matter.

While I agree that the US needs to be doing better, the Constitution is VERY state-heavy. European nations, by comparison, are more country-centric. Germany and Spain are more similar than OK and NY will EVER be. States, especially like OK, where cases are rising greatly, need to step up.

I am not bashing your opinion, just offering mine.

You are completely misunderstanding the points from the last two posts.