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Thread: Covid-19 Economic Impact

  1. #151

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Here’s the debt bubble I’ve referred too



    **# The Next Coronavirus Financial Crisis: Record Piles of Risky Corporate Debt**

    ## A fast-growing market in junk-rated leveraged loans is showing severe strains, a sign of a looming credit crunch that could stifle future economic growth

    By

    Matt Wirz and

    Nick Timiraos

    March 19, 2020 10:25 am ET

    * SAVE
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    * [111](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nex...omments_sector)

    Serious strains are starting to appear in the $1.2 trillion market for loans to high-risk companies, which have borrowed record sums in recent years as investors chased bigger yields.

    The market, which survived the 2008 financial crisis, has become overstretched since then, say regulators and economists, [who worry that it is now so big and risky its problems could amplify any economic damage](https://www.wsj.com/articles/financi..._inline)caused by the coronavirus crisis.

    “What I’ve always worried about is that the existence of overleveraged corporations will exacerbate a downturn that occurs for any reason,” said former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in an interview.

    #### MORE

    * [Stocks Waver Between Gains, Losses](https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-...article_inline)
    * [Intelligent Investor: Your Brain on a Crashing Market](https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-is...article_inline)

    Years of low interest rates and easy credit have allowed companies across the board to[borrow big](https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-l...article_inline), building a record $10 trillion mountain of debt. Lenders expect the vast majority of that money to be repaid on time.

    The epicenter of risk involves a subset of that total: $1.2 trillion in [leveraged loans](https://www.wsj.com/articles/leverag...article_inline), junk-rated debt secured by corporate assets much like mortgages are backed by homes. The market has exploded, ballooning by almost 50%—or $400 billion—since the start of 2015, as investors desperate for the high interest payments these loans provided threw cash at borrowers.

    [Private-equity firms fueled a lot of the growth](https://www.wsj.com/articles/lenders...article_inline), borrowing billions at a time to buy brand names including Dell Technologies and Staples Inc. Smaller but relatively stable public companies like car supplier American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings and electrical supply maker Atkore International Group Inc. also took out leveraged loans to fund share buybacks and acquisitions.

    The banks that make such loans rarely hold on to them now because of regulations passed after 2008. Instead they sell the debt directly to money managers or [repackage it into complex securities ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hunt-fo...le_inline)that are marketed to investors around the world.

    #### SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

    *Should the government rescue investors who made leveraged loans to high-risk companies* ? Join the conversation below.

    When prices of the loans drop, or they fall into default, the losses hit pensions, insurers, and scores of mutual funds and hedge funds, some of which react by selling out, exacerbating market swings.

    In addition, investors become less willing to buy new loans and the banks that arrange such deals stop making new ones. That can be compounded by sharp losses in the complex securities Wall Street repackaged many of the loans into, causing credit markets to seize up and leave already indebted companies without access to fresh cash. The consequences could cascade: A wave of defaults and bankruptcies, forcing job cuts and amplifying the economic slowdown.

    The impact will likely be long and drawn-out. Most loans don’t start coming due until 2022 and the hardest-hit sector—energy—is a small component of the market. Still, loan prices can fall sharply well before companies run out of cash, hurting investors who own the debt. And as business dries up for some companies, they may not be able to stay current on their existing loans.

    ![](https://images.wsj.net/im-166322?width=620&size=1.5 "Former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.")

    #### Former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

    PHOTO: ANDREW HARNIK/ASSOCIATED PRESS

    Leveraged loans suffered their worst run since the financial crisis this month when a widely tracked index lost about 16% of its value. Prices for loans to 24 Hour Fitness Worldwide, which operates a chain of gyms, fell to about 44 cents on the dollar this week from 80 cents in February, according to analytics firm AdvantageData Inc. Prices of loans to airlines such as United Airlines Holdings Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. declined about 10% in the first two weeks of March, more than any full-month loss since October 2008, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    Repackaging loans into bundles called “collateralized loan obligations” became popular in the 2000s, alongside similar techniques employed to market mortgage-backed bonds. Unlike mortgage bonds, very few CLOs defaulted in the 2008 financial crisis. That record and their high yields have made CLOs popular in recent years, but they are susceptible to violent price swings and have been one of the worst-performing debt investments this month.

    Loan investors remain hopeful that the virus will subside and that its aftershocks will be brief. But with the amount of loans outstanding about twice as large as in 2008, according to data from S&P Global, a recession will likely trigger a larger wave of defaults and heavier losses on their debt than the dot-com bubble or the financial crisis, analysts say.

    Rising TideCompanies with the worst credit ratings now make upa record 38% of the leveraged loan market.Leveraged-loan market market shareSource: Moody's Investors Service*Rated Ba1 to B2†Rated B3 and below

    %Strongest-rated companies*Weakest-rated companies†2000’05’10’15020406080100Strongest-rated companies*xOct. 2015x67%

    Companies that borrow in the junk loan market now are far weaker financially than those in that era. Borrowers with loans Moody’s Investors Service rated at the lowest rungs of the junk-debt ladder—B3 or lower—made up 38% of the market in July compared with 22% in 2008.

    “Investors will probably be surprised by the extent of their losses on loans compared with their historical losses,” said Oleg Melentyev, a strategist at Bank of America Corp. He calculates that about 29% of outstanding leveraged loans will likely default cumulatively in the next credit downturn, compared with an average of about 20% by junk-rated companies during the 2007 to 2009 period. Worse yet, investors will likely recover less money: about half of their original investment, compared with 58% back then.

    The storm is rocking even well-established leveraged-loan borrowers like hotel chain Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. The company took out a $2.6 billion loan in June to refinance debt left over from when Blackstone Group bought it over a decade ago, according to data from LevFin Insights.

    Prices for the loan, stable at 100 cents on the dollar in late February, have now fallen to about 83 cents on the dollar, according to data from IHS Markit. The company has borrowed more in recent days on a $1.75 billion revolving loan—basically a line of credit—to build cash as tourism and travel plummet. Prices of the revolver have fallen to around 79 cents.

    ### Debt Nation

    #### Hundreds of companies have spread risk in the U.S. economy by borrowing $1.2 trillion in junk loans.

    #### Composition of S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index by sector

    ![](https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/...0319100812.jpg)

    Services/retail

    20.4%

    Computers &

    electronics

    15.7

    Industrial

    14.0

    Healthcare

    12.0

    Media

    7.1

    Other

    5.2

    Food &

    beverage

    4.1

    Gaming

    & hotel

    3.8

    Oil &

    gas

    3.2

    Building

    materials

    2.1

    Telecom

    5.2

    Real estate: 1.0

    Forest product: 0.9

    Metals & mining: 1.2

    Entertainment & leisure: 4.0

    Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

    Other companies won’t have the same access to cash. “The real risk is in those incremental borrowers, the borrowers who need access to capital that could dry up,” said Frank Ossino, senior loan portfolio manager at Newfleet Asset Management, which holds about $2 billion of leveraged loans in the $10 billion of investments it manages.

    Cracks appeared in the market last week as businesses sent workers home, travel slowed, sports leagues halted play and predictions about the virus’s economic impact grew increasingly dire.

    ![](https://images.wsj.net/im-166444?width=620&size=1.5 "A terminal of Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Va., on March 17. ")

    #### A terminal of Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Va., on March 17.

    PHOTO: MANDEL NGAN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

    Moody’s downgraded Cirque du Soleil Inc. on Wednesday to a credit rating “in, or very near, default” after the company, which employs 4,000 people, suspended its shows in Las Vegas. Prices of about $700 million in loans the circus operator mostly borrowed for its purchase by private-equity firms in 2015 fell to 68 cents on the dollar from around 94 at the start of the month, according to data from IHS Markit. Officials for the company couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

    CLOs are highly susceptible because they use borrowed money to buy leveraged loans, boosting the yield, and the risk, of the investments. CLO managers issue bonds to buy bundles of leveraged loans, then use cash flow from the loans to pay interest and principal on the CLO bonds, pocketing the difference.

    When downgrades and defaults mount, CLO managers stop making payments on their most junior bonds, prices plummet and the market for new CLOs shuts down. Lower-quality CLO securities were the worst performers this month out of 29 types of debt measured by Citigroup Inc. analysts, losing 22% through March 13.

    “CLO formation has come to a grinding halt,” said Alex Jackson, chief investment officer for Nassau Corporate Credit, which manages six CLOs and had planned to launch more this year. “It does feel like the market accelerated into a panic over the course of the week.”

    Pain TradeLeveraged loan prices are plummeting, punishinginvestors who piled into the debt in recent yearsS&P Global Leveraged Loan IndexSource: S&P Dow Jones IndicesNote: Data as of March 18

    2016’17’18’19’201750180018501900195020002050210021 5022002250June 1, 2015x1853.16

    Loan markets seized up briefly the last time stocks tumbled in December 2018, but the declines are much sharper now and many fear a more prolonged disruption. During the last financial crisis, issuance of new leveraged loans slowed to a trickle for about a year starting in August 2008, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    Also worrying, it became increasingly difficult last week to trade existing loans of large companies normally viewed as comparatively safe bets. The gap between what sellers were asking and what buyers wanted to pay for Dell loans widened to 2 percentage points last week from about a half-point normally. On March 9, too few banks were making markets in the $5.3 billion loan of fast-food chain Restaurant Brands International, which owns Burger King, to accurately price the debt, according to IHS Markit.

    If trading dries up, investors and analysts hope the Fed can intervene to avoid a credit crunch. The central bank on Sunday slashed interest rates to near zero and said it would buy $700 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to help ease stress in the financial markets.

    On Tuesday, [the Fed announced plans ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasur...icle_inline)to start making loans to American companies in a bid to unclog the $1.1 trillion market for short-term IOUs called commercial paper, which companies use to finance day-to-day business operations such as payroll expense.

    Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said earlier this month that without a stronger response from Congress and the White House to combat any downturn, the Fed would need Congress to authorize new tools to spur growth, such as allowing the central bank to purchase corporate bonds and other private-sector assets.

    ![](https://images.wsj.net/im-166325?width=620&size=1.5 "Traders work on the floor at the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange...")

    #### Traders work on the floor at the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18.

    PHOTO: BRYAN R. SMITH/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

    A high level of corporate debt “is one of the negative outcomes of having low interest rates for a long time,” he said. “We’ll see how much of a problem that is for unemployment.”

    Worries over the risk in the leveraged loan market have been overstated, said Lee Shaiman, head of the Loan Syndications and Trading Association trade group. The biggest industries in the market, like business services and technology, are less affected by the virus than others, he said. And lower interest rates have cut debt expenses for most borrowers significantly in the past month. Energy companies, among the worst hit in the March turmoil, comprise only 3% of the loan market, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    But low-rated companies also borrowed more against their assets than ever before, while granting fewer lender protections, or covenants. And there are signs of weakness in some technology firms, which make up about 15% of the loan market. Loans of Coral Gables, Fla.-based data center operator Cyxtera Technologies fell about 14% this month to 72 cents on the dollar, according to IHS Markit.

    ![](https://images.wsj.net/im-166591?width=620&size=1.5 "Cirque du Soleil Inc., which employs 4,000 people, suspended its shows in Las Vegas, leading...")

    #### Cirque du Soleil Inc., which employs 4,000 people, suspended its shows in Las Vegas, leading to a credit downgrade.

    PHOTO: HANNES MAGERSTAEDT/GETTY IMAGES

    Some losses will hit investors in mutual funds, which now own about 10% of outstanding leveraged loans, down from around 17% in 2018 at the recent peak of the market’s popularity, according to research by Barclays PLC. About 65% of the loans are now owned by CLOs.

    CLOs have become popular with institutional investors [like Canada’s government pension plan](https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-...article_inline) and [began to show signs of weakness in November ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/clo-sel...le_inline)when prices of some of their securities swung wildly. The recent selloff has been far worse and newly forming CLOs, which are still purchasing loans from banks, could also get caught in the market freeze.

    Some CLO managers who are struggling to sell bonds to investors have begun liquidating the loans they had been accumulating in warehouses, fund managers said. Loans in such warehouses amounted to $10 to $12 billion in early March, according to research by Wells Fargo Securities.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nex...627925?mod=mhp

  2. #152

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Please. Take a minute...

    It’s all sobering. There is no question about it. I just heard something this evening about something happening they said would be jaw-dropping news in any other situation (and I agree). President Trump openly admitted today he wants the U.S. government to tie all of the loans and grants to corporations with exchanges for partial governmental ownership in direct proportions to its investment!

    This raises all kinds of questions. Besides it being one of the defining hallmarks of fascism (think Mussolini), it might signal that Donald Trump truly is enamored by, not only friendly authoritarian governments, but totalitarian ones as well. Maybe this explains his “envy’ at the power and pageantry that surrounds Kim Jong Un, his admiring comments about how the Chinese government wields its power. Maybe President Trump actually wants a Chinese-like economy? Complete with the top heavy clampdowns on dissidents. This sounds like something out of a movie - but these comments today have me wondering where this is all headed.

    Thoughts? It’s on-topic as we’re not just talking economic “impact” with this, we could be talking an economic transformation.

  3. Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    I don't think anyone - ANYONE (of any significance) - wants the scenario you talk about. In the mortgage bust the US bailed out several companies and took back FNMA and Freddie Mac and all successfully payed back the US years ago. FNA and Freddie Mac continue to be quasi governmental agencies who have been wildly profitable since the bust time - so successful that the government peels their dividend and profits every year for deficit reduction.

    I think what he is viewing are, as an example, 4 airlines who have collectively bought back $39 billion in stock. With this downturn, they are asking for $50 billion in assistance to weather the COVID bust. That $39 billion could have been used as rainy day savings but instead were used to improve the balance sheet and prop up the stock price. If government takes an equity position kwhich, using preferred stock senior to common stock and other debt), they can have a significant say in how and who manages the companies and rightly so.

    These companies aren't being mismanaged and stock buyback are sometimes a good thing for the stock owners (which usually includes employees through their 401ks) - return on a good investment. Buybacks have been used too much, lately, though, instead of reinvesting in the company. Execs benefit too much by them through incentive plans in their contracts.

  4. #154

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    I’m a massive republican. I loathe socialism, I’m the guy who says look at Venezuela.


    There’s a difference between government running these companies and government saving companies and industries that are critical to our national interests.

    It’s fair for government to say, this is now the 2nd time in 12 years we’ve had to bail you guys out.

    We’re going to change the rules on you. Not so we can control and interfere, so that we can STOP having to interfere.

    Minimum cash requirements for publicly traded companies, stock buyback restrictions, etc.

    Capitalism is the best system we have so far. It is not perfect, it goes off the rails sometimes, government plays a role in setting rules and regulations to keep it on a straighter and narrower.

    You can’t lend money to all of these companies. There’s not amount of money the US Gov could lend CHK and fix their situation. Model is broken. But if the Gov bought $5 billion in preferred (which are non voting) shares and CHK used that money to pay off debt. Company can survive. Eventually those preferred shares are converted to common equity and sold off into the market. Government recoups its money and the company survives.

  5. Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    It’s fair for government to say, this is now the 2nd time in 12 years we’ve had to bail you guys out.

    We’re going to change the rules on you. Not so we can control and interfere, so that we can STOP having to interfere.

    Minimum cash requirements for publicly traded companies, stock buyback restrictions, etc.

    Capitalism is the best system we have so far. It is not perfect, it goes off the rails sometimes, government plays a role in setting rules and regulations to keep it on a straighter and narrower.
    I support the bail-outs as well, but I think this is the issue for most people who don't. Most of these companies have put themselves into this position by chasing stock prices and not having cash on hand. Everyone criticized Apple for how much cash they had and now they look like the smartest guy in the room. There are definitely going to have to be some changes.

    Not sure if this has been shared here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai...cks-2020-03-18

  6. #156

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by BBatesokc View Post
    Which is pretty worthless information unless they provide insights to the person's health prior to infection. Reminds me of all the headlines about someone in their 20's that died - oh wait, they also suffered from Leukemia.
    I have a friend that works at the Tulsa hospital who said this person was the EMT aiding the person who first contracted the Coronavirus. I don't know the health of the individual otherwise.

  7. #157

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    I have to wonder if a Democrat president were in office if all the bailouts and QE and other stimuli would be as resisted now as was in 2009 with the last major collapse. There were lots of doomsdayers then screaming about saving the auto manufacturing industry as well as out of control inflation. So much anger directed at President Obama. If nothing else, he was proved to be correct.

  8. #158

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Every senator that sold off stock before this crash should be at a minimum

    -thrown out of the senate
    -pension stripped

    Beyond that I’m good with looking at criminal charges being brought.

  9. Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by OKC Guy View Post
    Another business looking to hire:

    Pizza delivery in a pandemic: Domino’s is hiring 10,000 workers

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin....co/FPqTrukr9A

    I would imagine most delivery food places are in same situation. Uber drivers losing out on fares might consider this.
    I genuinely don't know, but I wonder how the surge in these types of hiring (delivery, grocery) is affecting the unemployment rate. I guess we will see when the numbers come out.

  10. #160

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    Every senator that sold off stock before this crash should be at a minimum

    -thrown out of the senate
    -pension stripped

    Beyond that I’m good with looking at criminal charges being brought.
    what they did is not illegal

    unethical of course ..

  11. Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    It is illegal if they made those decisions based on non-public information they obtained in their briefings about the virus........

  12. #162

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    It does not appear that the closure of restaurants and such will be ending anytime within a couple of weeks.

    Fauci predicts Americans will likely need to stay home for at least several more weeks
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...veral-n1164701

  13. #163

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by BoulderSooner View Post
    what they did is not illegal

    unethical of course ..
    It appears to be illegal.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s...wledge-act.asp

  14. #164

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by AP View Post
    It is illegal if they made those decisions based on non-public information they obtained in their briefings about the virus........
    i don't think so .. that info is not about any specific company

  15. #165

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by AP View Post
    I genuinely don't know, but I wonder how the surge in these types of hiring (delivery, grocery) is affecting the unemployment rate. I guess we will see when the numbers come out.
    It’s pennies in the scheme of things.

  16. #166

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Motley View Post
    I have to wonder if a Democrat president were in office if all the bailouts and QE and other stimuli would be as resisted now as was in 2009 with the last major collapse. There were lots of doomsdayers then screaming about saving the auto manufacturing industry as well as out of control inflation. So much anger directed at President Obama. If nothing else, he was proved to be correct.
    Of course it would be resisted. And the deficit would be brought up 5 times a day. Something something hyperinflation something something Venezuela.

  17. #167

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    Every senator that sold off stock before this crash should be at a minimum

    -thrown out of the senate
    -pension stripped

    Beyond that I’m good with looking at criminal charges being brought.
    Inhofe said somebody else manages his financial affairs.

  18. #168

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunty View Post
    Inhofe said somebody else manages his financial affairs.
    Absolutely no way a financial manager dumps over $450K in stock without talking to the account owner.

    I was a senior executive at a money management company, I know how these things work.

  19. #169

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    My only thing is if selling was based on non public information. It didn't take a rocket scientist to know that something was coming, especially by the end of January. I know I was on my way back from Italy on 1/28 and was looking at pulling back some of my investments in anticipation of a downturn. That being said, the amount of the pull to me implies insider information. It's a rather large and specific move (although maybe his portfolio is giant and this was a typical move?)

  20. #170

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    At bare minimum it’s horrid optics and poor leadership.


    Sorry y’all are in forced unemployment cause we the government shut the economy down, I got my money out! Suck it peasants!

  21. #171

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by jerrywall View Post
    My only thing is if selling was based on non public information. It didn't take a rocket scientist to know that something was coming, especially by the end of January. I know I was on my way back from Italy on 1/28 and was looking at pulling back some of my investments in anticipation of a downturn. That being said, the amount of the pull to me implies insider information. It's a rather large and specific move (although maybe his portfolio is giant and this was a typical move?)
    insider info by definition is about a specific company maybe could be expanded to a sector ...

    this doesn't seem to qualify ...

    but it is a terrible look ..

    but i also pulled a ton out in late jan early feb ... and then everything by late feb ..

  22. #172

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    One thing that hasn't been mentioned...

    Oklahoma is unique in that our municipalities -- including OKC -- rely almost exclusively on sales tax.

    Obviously, that is going to plummet for the foreseeable future. We are going to have huge issues with just funding basic services like police and fire; this is very different than cities in other states.

  23. #173

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    1. Cease all hospital functions apart from dealing with people who are in serious condition (no elective surgeries, etc.)

    2. Bring in healthcare workers to any hotspots, or transport cases to where there is capacity.

    3. Provide drive-through testing stations so any concerned parties don't burden the hospital system.

    4. Unless there is some huge spike in serious cases, get on with life.
    This is why we should all be furious at the complete failure of our federal government. They should be leading on getting medical equipment (like masks, production of more ventilators, etc.; long term vaccine work) and testing! It's not until these things are in place can we really get back to life. If we get back to life there will be a dramatic and overwhelming jump in cases, but also a lot of fear... people aren't going to risk their lives. They need more assurances and tests and masks provide that.The people who test positive quarantine and those who didn't can go to work with precautions (continue social distancing). Once people have masks we can go in public more. Want businesses to open? Pressure our federal government to use their power to get us there.

  24. #174

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by dankrutka View Post
    This is why we should all be furious at the complete failure of our federal government. They should be leading on getting medical equipment (like masks, production of more ventilators, etc.; long term vaccine work) and testing! It's not until these things are in place can we really get back to life. If we get back to life there will be a dramatic and overwhelming jump in cases, but also a lot of fear... people aren't going to risk their lives. They need more assurances and tests and masks provide that.The people who test positive quarantine and those who didn't can go to work with precautions (continue social distancing). Once people have masks we can go in public more. Want businesses to open? Pressure our federal government to use their power to get us there.
    masks don't protect you they protect others from you

  25. #175

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by BoulderSooner View Post
    masks don't protect you they protect others from you
    I thought that too because that's what experts told us, but it turns out that was wrong: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/o...ace-masks.html

    Of course, the masks-don't-help-you messaging never made sense when you stop to think about it. Of course they protect you. China and South Korea are both using them widely in response.

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