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Thread: Covid-19 Economic Impact

  1. Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Ginkasa View Post
    First death in OK was a man in his 50s:

    https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus/...officials-say/
    Which is pretty worthless information unless they provide insights to the person's health prior to infection. Reminds me of all the headlines about someone in their 20's that died - oh wait, they also suffered from Leukemia.

  2. #127

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by BBatesokc View Post
    Which is pretty worthless information unless they provide insights to the person's health prior to infection. Reminds me of all the headlines about someone in their 20's that died - oh wait, they also suffered from Leukemia.
    Right, so that "under 60/over 60" plan that gopokes provided was probably oversimplified.

  3. #128

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Ginkasa View Post
    Right, so that "under 60/over 60" plan that gopokes provided was probably oversimplified.
    Over 60 or otherwise compromised - stay in your house
    Healthy under 60 - go to work

    There ya go.

  4. #129

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by TheTravellers View Post
    Over 60 or otherwise compromised - stay in your house
    Healthy under 60 - go to work

    There ya go.
    Thanks. Now we just need to roll it out.

  5. #130

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    ^

    I think we are going to get there soon.

    With the increased testing there are loads of new cases but a very small percentage are serious.

    We really need to get back to work in a month or so, otherwise our entire economy is going to collapse. That is becoming obvious now.

  6. #131

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    I wonder how much economic damage has already been done. Could we just snap out of it or if hypothetically we started the proposed “over 60/under 60” thing we would still fall into a lasting recession at minimum?

  7. #132

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    We will go into a global recession regardless.

    And it will take a long time to get back to anything resembling normalcy. Large gatherings are likely to be banned until the end of the year, at least.

    But we can't stay shut down for more than 2 months. There are 12 million people in the restaurant and bar industry and a huge percentage is now out of work. My business can't hold out any longer than that and I suspect almost all small and medium sized businesses are in the same boat.

    There will have to be massive long-term low-interest loans and even then this is going to take a couple of years to dig out, and I see that as the absolute best case scenario.

  8. #133

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Per the CDC yesterday. 40% of those infected that required hospitalization are in the 20-54 yoa group.
    Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...eople.amp.html

  9. #134

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    ^

    I think we are going to get there soon.

    With the increased testing there are loads of new cases but a very small percentage are serious.

    We really need to get back to work in a month or so, otherwise our entire economy is going to collapse. That is becoming obvious now.
    There are some treatment protocol research with chloroquine that is at least somewhat promising. Even if 50% effective, this could help in the long run. Will it save everyone? No, but a very large percentage of the cases where you require ICU treatment die anyway. The goal is to keep patients from hopefully getting to this point.

    It would at least give field doctors something to fight with.

  10. #135

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    I wonder how much economic damage has already been done. Could we just snap out of it or if hypothetically we started the proposed “over 60/under 60” thing we would still fall into a lasting recession at minimum?
    https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/stat...696735234?s=20

    The damage is already worse than 2008.

    The question is now does the pause make for a V shaped recovery or an L.

    The fed and US Govt firing Trillion dollar bullets everywhere scares the daylights out of me. That can take a V shape to an L if they crowd out private banking. Essentially they fire so many, they crowd out all other sources of capital. You can only print so much and still be taken be seriously.

    Our saving grace right now is that America despite everything, has the dollar. And the dollar's reputation is safer than gold, if that changes though. LOOK. OUT. BELOW.

  11. #136

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact


  12. #137

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Basically we'll hit the depth of the 2008 economic recession in 2 weeks, and keep going from there. And it's going to hit our most vulnerable economic workers. Waiters, servers, working single moms, small business owners, blue collar workers, low level white collar workers. It's going to be a very painful 6-12 months for them.

    That's base case 100% assured.

    Depression is still on the table.

  13. #138

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    I think there is some hope that this won't be on the same scale, assuming things can get back in order relatively soon. The 2008 Great Recession was a collapse of the financial market due to problems that were solely based on the actions of the financial sector. the distinctive difference is that this is caused by people who have money* no longer spending it due to everything being closed. The 2008 crisis was caused by the market all of the sudden not having any money at all.

    * A lot of people have money set aside right now for trips, vacations this summer, home improvement, etc. but that money is now not being spent in favor of saving it to keep current with their mortgage. If this eases soon that money will not have been touched and that money likely will flow back into the economy at a slower rate, but still come back nevertheless. I know I am in that situation. I had a few thousand set aside to put in an A/C system in my house and pour a new driveway. I was days away from getting that going - obviously, that is not happening now. But if we get through this relatively quickly I will probably go forward with that at some point this summer.

    The speed at which we can get the economy moving again will determine if this is going to be a major hiccup or an actual economic disaster.

  14. #139

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    I think there is some hope that this won't be on the same scale, assuming things can get back in order relatively soon. The 2008 Great Recession was a collapse of the financial market due to problems that were solely based on the actions of the financial sector. the distinctive difference is that this is caused by people who have money* no longer spending it due to everything being closed. The 2008 crisis was caused by the market all of the sudden not having any money at all.

    * A lot of people have money set aside right now for trips, vacations this summer, home improvement, etc. but that money is now not being spent in favor of saving it to keep current with their mortgage. If this eases soon that money will not have been touched and that money likely will flow back into the economy at a slower rate, but still come back nevertheless. I know I am in that situation. I had a few thousand set aside to put in an A/C system in my house and pour a new driveway. I was days away from getting that going - obviously, that is not happening now. But if we get through this relatively quickly I will probably go forward with that at some point this summer.

    The speed at which we can get the economy moving again will determine if this is going to be a major hiccup or an actual economic disaster.
    As a business owner,

    I can you tell you now.
    I'll emerge from this leaner, with fewer expenses, and fewer employees.
    The pain and push the market has mandated, will make me creative on doing more with less.
    Example, we went from 30 corporate credits to 4 this week. It will be a decade before I'm back at 30.

    It won't be a snap back. The business' that survive will have learned to be leaner, meaner, less expensive to run.

    You ever feel like you don't actually contribute to the company? You're boss is about to find out whether that's true or not.

    It's not cause I'm ruthless, it's what I'm forced to do to survive.

    Large publicly traded companies? They were caught flat footed with no cash. They'll stockpile cash and run extremely lean from here on out.

    You can't go through this type of economic shock and pain and expect to come out on the other side and go right back to normal. Not how it works. Behaviors are shaped and changed from events like this.

  15. #140
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    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    As a business owner,

    I can you tell you now.
    I'll emerge from this leaner, with fewer expenses, and fewer employees.
    The pain and push the market has mandated, will make me creative on doing more with less.
    Example, we went from 30 corporate credits to 4 this week. It will be a decade before I'm back at 30.

    It won't be a snap back. The business' that survive will have learned to be leaner, meaner, less expensive to run.

    You ever feel like you don't actually contribute to the company? You're boss is about to find out whether that's true or not.

    It's not cause I'm ruthless, it's what I'm forced to do to survive.

    Large publicly traded companies? They were caught flat footed with no cash. They'll stockpile cash and run extremely lean from here on out.

    You can't go through this type of economic shock and pain and expect to come out on the other side and go right back to normal. Not how it works. Behaviors are shaped and changed from events like this.
    That's why after the great recession of 2008 it took so long for wages to increase. Employment rates climbed steadily but not spectacularly. Companies had learned they didn't need everyone they had. Usually that is true over a short run, but long term growth generally require hiring more people, not working people to death.

  16. #141

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    That's why after the great recession of 2008 it took so long for wages to increase. Employment rates climbed steadily but not spectacularly. Companies had learned they didn't need everyone they had. Usually that is true over a short run, but long term growth generally require hiring more people, not working people to death.
    Right.

    The 2008 fear took 6-8 years too work out of the system. After that it was full go, hire, give raises, sponsor all the little leagues, etc.

    We just hit reset on that.

  17. #142

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    As a business owner,

    I can you tell you now.
    I'll emerge from this leaner, with fewer expenses, and fewer employees.
    The pain and push the market has mandated, will make me creative on doing more with less.
    Example, we went from 30 corporate credits to 4 this week. It will be a decade before I'm back at 30.

    It won't be a snap back. The business' that survive will have learned to be leaner, meaner, less expensive to run.

    You ever feel like you don't actually contribute to the company? You're boss is about to find out whether that's true or not.

    It's not cause I'm ruthless, it's what I'm forced to do to survive.

    Large publicly traded companies? They were caught flat footed with no cash. They'll stockpile cash and run extremely lean from here on out.

    You can't go through this type of economic shock and pain and expect to come out on the other side and go right back to normal. Not how it works. Behaviors are shaped and changed from events like this.
    This upcoming third stage bill would help small business tremendously.
    Would you qualify?
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...ments-n1163826

  18. #143

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Another business looking to hire:

    Pizza delivery in a pandemic: Domino’s is hiring 10,000 workers

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin....co/FPqTrukr9A

    I would imagine most delivery food places are in same situation. Uber drivers losing out on fares might consider this.

  19. #144

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    I think the third round of stimulus could save us, honestly.
    Republicans are proposing $1000 per adult - $500 per child.
    Democrats are proposing anywhere from $1500 up to $4000 per adult.
    It will end up somewhere in the middle. This would quickly employ people to meet the new demand as there would be money for carry-out, delivered food, groceries, etc. And it won’t be a one-time deal. Mnuchin is pushing hard for two initial payouts with re-evaluation and possibly need this for 6-8 months. McConnell is wanting to just go with $1000 one time (not happening).

    I actually agree with Trump and Mnuchin — this is a national emergency and now is not the time to worry about the annual deficit and the addition of debt. We can still service the debt and right now, we need cash in hands. It WILL get spent. It’s going to happen, the question is - how much?

    Even many conservative economists are saying this is unprecedented and could be the only way out.

    This would be big for Oklahoma as that money can go pretty far.
    How much? How long?

  20. #145

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    The key thing is making the payments recurring until this crisis is over. Do I think we're all going to be stuck inside for 12-18 months until we get a vaccine, no, people will riot if things get to that point. But right now, this is definitely looking like something that's going to be measured in months, not weeks. And while I don't think this level of isolation will be required for 12-18 months, large gatherings could well be put on hold until we get a vaccine.

  21. #146

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Blue Sky View Post
    I think the third round of stimulus could save us, honestly.
    Republicans are proposing $1000 per adult - $500 per child.
    Democrats are proposing anywhere from $1500 up to $4000 per adult.
    It will end up somewhere in the middle. This would quickly employ people to meet the new demand as there would be money for carry-out, delivered food, groceries, etc. And it won’t be a one-time deal. Mnuchin is pushing hard for two initial payouts with re-evaluation and possibly need this for 6-8 months. McConnell is wanting to just go with $1000 one time (not happening).

    I actually agree with Trump and Mnuchin — this is a national emergency and now is not the time to worry about the annual deficit and the addition of debt. We can still service the debt and right now, we need cash in hands. It WILL get spent. It’s going to happen, the question is - how much?

    Even many conservative economists are saying this is unprecedented and could be the only way out.

    This would be big for Oklahoma as that money can go pretty far.
    How much? How long?
    Now is the best time for Gov to refinance debt with rates at 0.

  22. #147

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    Quote Originally Posted by OKC Guy View Post
    Now is the best time for Gov to refinance debt with rates at 0.
    Don’t we do a lot of our borrowing from central banks in other countries?
    Like China? Germany? (It’s not my bailiwick.)

  23. #148

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    **No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health.**


    Financial markets paused their slide Thursday, but no one should think this rolling economic calamity is over. If this government-ordered shutdown continues for much more than another week or two, the human cost of job losses and bankruptcies will exceed what most Americans imagine. This won’t be popular to read in some quarters, but federal and state officials need to start adjusting their anti-virus strategy now to avoid an economic recession that will dwarf the harm from 2008-2009.

    The vast social-distancing project of the last 10 days or so has been necessary and has done much good. Warnings about large gatherings of more than 10 people and limiting access to nursing homes will save lives. The public has received a crucial education in hygiene and disease prevention, and even young people may get the message. With any luck, this behavior change will reduce the coronavirus spread enough that our hospitals won’t be overwhelmed with patients. Anthony Fauci, Scott Gottlieb and other disease experts are buying crucial time for government and private industry to marshal resources against the virus.

    Yet the costs of this national shutdown are growing by the hour, and we don’t mean federal spending. We mean a tsunami of economic destruction that will cause tens of millions to lose their jobs as commerce and production simply cease. Many large companies can withstand a few weeks without revenue but that isn’t true of millions of small and mid-sized firms.

    Even cash-rich businesses operate on a thin margin and can bleed through reserves in a month. First they will lay off employees and then out of necessity they will shut down. Another month like this week and the layoffs will be measured in millions of people.

    The deadweight loss in production will be profound and take years to rebuild. In a normal recession the U.S. loses about 5% of national output over the course of a year or so. In this case we may lose that much, or twice as much, in a month.

    Our friend Ed Hyman, the Wall Street economist, on Thursday adjusted his estimate for the second quarter to an annual rate loss in GDP of minus-20%. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s assertion on Fox Business Thursday that the economy will power through all this is happy talk if this continues for much longer.

    If GDP seems abstract, consider the human cost. Think about the entrepreneur who has invested his life in his Memphis ribs joint only to see his customers vanish in a week. Or the retail chain of 30 stores that employs hundreds but sees no sales and must shut its doors.

    Or the recent graduate with $20,000 in student-loan debt—taken on with the encouragement of politicians—who finds herself laid off from her first job. Perhaps she can return home and live with her parents, but what if they’re laid off too? How do you measure the human cost of these crushed dreams, lives upended, or mental-health damage that result from the orders of federal and state governments?

    Some in the media who don’t understand American business say that China managed a comparable shock to its economy and is now beginning to emerge on the other side. Why can’t the U.S. do it too? This ignores that the Chinese state owns an enormous stake in that economy and chose to absorb the losses. In the U.S. those losses will be borne by private owners and workers who rely on a functioning private economy. They have no state balance sheet to fall back on.

    The politicians in Washington are telling Americans, as they always do, that they are riding to the rescue by writing checks to individuals and offering loans to business. But there is no amount of money that can make up for losses of the magnitude we are facing if this extends for several more weeks. After the first $1 trillion this month, will we have to spend another $1 trillion in April, and another in June?

    By the time Treasury’s small-business lending program runs through the bureaucratic hoops—complete with ordering owners that they can’t lay off anyone as a price for getting the loan—millions of businesses will be bankrupt and tens of millions will be jobless.

    Perhaps we will be lucky, and the human and capitalist genius for innovation will produce a vaccine faster than expected—or at least treatments that reduce Covid-19 symptoms. But barring that, our leaders and our society will very soon need to shift their virus-fighting strategy to something that is sustainable.

    Dr. Fauci has explained this severe lockdown policy as lasting 14 days in its initial term. The national guidance would then be reconsidered depending on the spread of the disease. That should be the moment, if not sooner, to offer new guidance on what might be called phase two of the coronavirus pandemic campaign.

    That will surely include strict measures to isolate and protect the most vulnerable—our elderly and those with underlying medical problems. This should not become a debate over how many lives to sacrifice against how many lost jobs we can tolerate. Substantial social distancing and other measures will have to continue for some time in some form, depending on how our knowledge of the virus and its effects evolves.

    But no society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its overall economic health. Even America’s resources to fight a viral plague aren’t limitless—and they will become more limited by the day as individuals lose jobs, businesses close, and American prosperity gives way to poverty. America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown.

    Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethink...659154?mod=mhp

  24. #149

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact

    ^^^

    Good article

  25. #150

    Default Re: Covid-19 Economic Impact


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