Covid-19 Economic Impact

[catch22]

[TheTravellers]

Interesting info in here about the SBA relief, kind of sad reading, but still interesting.

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/c...-stimulus.html

[OKC Guy]

Interesting info in here about the SBA relief, kind of sad reading, but still interesting.

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/c...-stimulus.html

I didn’t read it as sad. It seems like pretty fair program with loan forgiveness. It gets rehires done. It helps keep rehires. Its 2.5 months yet we’ve been closed less than 3 weeks so far on average.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

I noticed AP and the Oklahoman picked up a story about closing most of Integris Portland Ave also known as old Deaconess Hospital. The tone of the article implies it is due to economic impact of shutting off non-emergent care.
The thing is, they laid off 600 people in non-clinical positions back in October 2019 as they continued to merge operations with Baptist. I'm highly suspicious that the closure would have happened regardless of the pandemic, but at least this way, Integris administration is eligible for any federal bailout of healthcare operations.

[jdizzle]

I noticed AP and the Oklahoman picked up a story about closing most of Integris Portland Ave also known as old Deaconess Hospital. The tone of the article implies it is due to economic impact of shutting off non-emergent care.
The thing is, they laid off 600 people in non-clinical positions back in October 2019 as they continued to merge operations with Baptist. I'm highly suspicious that the closure would have happened regardless of the pandemic, but at least this way, Integris administration is eligible for any federal bailout of healthcare operations.

Probably a mix of both. There are not enough COVID cases to keep all these hospitals open. It is sad.

[catch22]

[mkjeeves]

^We are currently at 2028 according to the John Hopkins site. Date and number does match day 10. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

[mugofbeer]

The more tests and kits used, the high the numbers will go. I'm more interested in the number hospitalized.

[catch22]

the bottom chart compares available seat miles relative to the base schedule that was published before cuts and how different scenarios will return those ASM's back into inventory. ASM's are a standard unit of measure of capacity for airlines.

A 50 seat airplane flying exactly 100 miles provides 5,000 ASM's of capacity, for example.

[SEMIweather]

That second chart is brutal, especially given that in all likelihood, the "all clear" date is going to be much later than April 15th.

[Pete]

Dow is now down 1,400 and below 20,000.

I can't see any way this doesn't get a lot worse until we get on the backside of the infection curve.

[catch22]

Delta now parking 600 airplanes, up from the previous 300 of last week. Cutting domestic capacity by 70% from base schedule and 85% international.

[Pete]

Dow now down over 2,100 points today.

[BoulderSooner]

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

[TheTravellers]

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

For once, I agree with you, but not sure what other options we have.

[BoulderSooner]

For once, I agree with you, but not sure what other options we have.

the ship to do something different i think has already sailed ....

what poeple need to understand is that the experts are not saying that what we are doing will stop anyone from getting this virus they are saying we will save some (unknown) number of lives because the hospitals wont get fully overrun ..

but if these experts are correct 1,000,000 + people are going to die from this .. anyway

and we will also have destroyed the economy and caused X amount of other deaths

[gopokes88]

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

It won't be.

Should have let it spread like wildfire and be done in 4-6 weeks.

And before everyone slams me, I have a

Mom
Dad
Grandmother
Aunt
Uncle

all in that high risk category.

The depression that follows this won't be worth. For me or them.

Boomers man. They'll put the millennial generation through 2 massive economic contractions in 12 years with a 3rd on the way (debt crisis). Way to leave the country better than you found it.

[BoulderSooner]

WSJ op ed basicly said we should have sheltered the old and at risk and everyone else should have lived their lives ..

[Pete]

I posted this on the restaurant closing thread:

Everyone is focusing on restaurants and hotels, but virtually every small- and medium-sized business is going to be screwed if this goes for more than 2 months.

The best hope is for longer term SBA loans. I'm already in the queue. They are talking about up to $2 million amortized out up to 30 years at a low interest rate. That will be the key for many businesses being able to come out of this.

[gopokes88]

This is the tip of the economic iceberg. We're in inning 1. You've only lost some retirement funds. Go ahead and kiss that goodbye. You'll never retire.

-Ready for nationwide housing prices to fall 20-30% because everyone is out of a job?
-Ready for credit shortages? The student loan and personal unsecured loan defaults will be through the roof. That's 1.3 trillion. That'll go systemic. It's 3-6 months out, and what if the next point is true. You know like waiters and servers carry huge amounts of it. They're unemployed today thanks to government leadership.
-The Fed/US Treasury keeps firing $1 trillion bullets every month, and runs out of capacity
-Then comes massive asset deflation mixed with rampant inflation

Millions may have died, but in this scenario hundreds and hundreds of millions are going to suffer severely.

Then trump will probably suspend the election and we start teetering on a total breakdown of society.

[jdizzle]

This is the tip of the economic iceberg. We're in inning 1. You've only lost some retirement funds. Go ahead and kiss that goodbye. You'll never retire.

-Ready for nationwide housing prices to fall 20-30% because everyone is out of a job?
-Ready for credit shortages? The student loan and personal unsecured loan defaults will be through the roof. That's 1.3 trillion. That'll go systemic. It's 3-6 months out, and what if the next point is true. You know like waiters and servers carry huge amounts of it. They're unemployed today thanks to government leadership.
-The Fed/US Treasury keeps firing $1 trillion bullets every month, and runs out of capacity
-Then comes massive asset deflation mixed with rampant inflation

Millions may have died, but in this scenario hundreds and hundreds of millions are going to suffer severely.

Then trump will probably suspend the election and we start teetering on a total breakdown of society.

I would say "Do you need a push?" but you are already way off the ledge of negativity. We may as well all stop living to save our burden on society, right?

[BoulderSooner]

I would say "Do you need a push?" but you are already way off the ledge of negativity. We may as well all stop living to save our burden on society, right?

he is not wrong a lot of that will likely happen

[jn1780]

he is not wrong a lot of that will likely happen

I thought his numbers were still optimistic. The dollar is backed by a working population. We're not fooling anyone when at least half the country are out of work.

[TheTravellers]

This is the tip of the economic iceberg. We're in inning 1. You've only lost some retirement funds. Go ahead and kiss that goodbye. You'll never retire.

-Ready for nationwide housing prices to fall 20-30% because everyone is out of a job?
-Ready for credit shortages? The student loan and personal unsecured loan defaults will be through the roof. That's 1.3 trillion. That'll go systemic. It's 3-6 months out, and what if the next point is true. You know like waiters and servers carry huge amounts of it. They're unemployed today thanks to government leadership.
-The Fed/US Treasury keeps firing $1 trillion bullets every month, and runs out of capacity
-Then comes massive asset deflation mixed with rampant inflation

Millions may have died, but in this scenario hundreds and hundreds of millions are going to suffer severely.

Then trump will probably suspend the election and we start teetering on a total breakdown of society.

Yep, all sounds possible (not sure how likely, but yeah, possible) to me. I agree with the "shelter elderly and at risk" viewpoints, and am reminded of Spock:

"Logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few."

Read one story about a community college student who now has to do remote schooling. Has no computer, is poor, works a few jobs, has student loans/rent, and just really can't do remote schooling, and has also now lost his jobs and can't pay rent. So now his entire future is possibly gone because he won't graduate from college, will have his debt, may end up homeless. And who knows how many more thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands are just like him.

And yes, I know this all gets into dangerous and moral/ethical scary territory, but I've been saying this ever since it started - is it worth it to destroy the country's economy and harm possibly hundreds of millions of people for years, if not decades?

Oh, and I say this having a mother that's in her 80s with COPD and an uncle that's in his 90s (but in good health).

[Pete]

And yes, I know this all gets into dangerous and moral/ethical scary territory, but I've been saying this ever since it started - is it worth it to destroy the country's economy and harm possibly hundreds of millions of people for years, if not decades?

I think that realization is just now starting to hit home and public sentiment will begin to shift and policies will shift accordingly.

Otherwise, we run the real risk of our entire democracy imploding and then forget about healthcare or anything else.