Covid-19 Economic Impact

[BoulderSooner]

Dude, really, get hold of yourself.....

it is really not that far off ....

[TheTravellers]

That scenario is on the table. There isn't an unlimited supply of money the Fed can throw at it.

Exactly, as has been mentioned in an article I posted, America's wages are about $13 trillion/year. Our entire country isn't out of work, but even if 1/4 of them are, you'd need to pump over $250 billion into the economy every month for as long as that half are out of employment - how long is that sustainable? Not sure we even know how many are currently unemployed due to this, or how many will be, but yes, something worse than the Great Depression is certainly a possibility.

[SEMIweather]

the great depression is starting to become the best case ...

shutdown for 90 days and we don't have a system left

Alternatively, opening things up in two weeks and letting the virus run wild could well break critical supply chains in a way that torpedoes the entire system. What happens when so many people get sick at once that grocery store clerks, truck drivers, police officers, etc. are too scared to go into work?

[TheTravellers]

Alternatively, opening things up in two weeks and letting the virus run wild could well break critical supply chains in a way that torpedoes the entire system. What happens when so many people get sick at once that grocery store clerks, truck drivers, police officers, etc. are too scared to go into work?

That's why middle ground needs to be found, and one way is to get millions of tests and millions tested so we know who has it where and then an actual plan can be formulated and we have NO plan right now as a country.

[gopokes88]

That's why middle ground needs to be found, and one way is to get millions of tests and millions tested so we know who has it where and then an actual plan can be formulated and we have NO plan right now as a country.

I think part of this is in the plan, ramp up testing.

Is that being articulated? Oh heavens no.

Pres probably needs to say, we're opening the economy April 12th, and testing will be immediately available nationwide. (Not sure if it's possible or not, I've seen a lot of conflicting reports)

[Jersey Boss]

Has he not already said quite a few days ago that if you want a test you can have a test?

[SEMIweather]

That's why middle ground needs to be found, and one way is to get millions of tests and millions tested so we know who has it where and then an actual plan can be formulated and we have NO plan right now as a country.

Yes, I couldn't agree more with this. Of course we can't keep everything shut down for 12-18 months, that's ridiculous. But opening things back up before we have adequate testing is even more ridiculous, because not only will it lead to a disastrous health outcome, it'll lead to an even worse economic outcome than the one we're already on track for.

Testing is the only way out of this mess.

[Rover]

I'll just leave you with this - Who are the only people who could've fixed (or started to fix) climate change back in the 1970s, yet did nothing at all and the powers-that-be at that time covered it up? Not going to discuss this further on this thread since it's not about COVID-19, but had to refute your "Misplaced blame" assertion. Oh, and I'm not a Millennial, I'm Gen X, and my wife is technically a Boomer, but born in one of the last years of the category (so she was too young to do anything about climate change in the 1970s, to head that one off).

What a bunch of bs blame and ignorance.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus/...d-in-oklahoma/

Which ones are doing delivery already? I suppose the liquor stores need to post their inventory on Postmates, etc.?

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Not say this isn't a crisis situation but I don't think you can say that. We have never had a case like this where such a large part of our economy is in "mothballs" and did not decline organically. Given the government pledge for low interest loans and at least a little cash for individuals and business, when we do start to come out of the caves, I see a pretty fast recovery - certainly not up to where we were, but I think as much as possible, most people will be able to just go back to their jobs. Some things will take longer to recover, such as manufacturing and travel, but they will recover. There's no reason for them not to.

I agree with this. Some might even realize after this is all said and done, that we don't really "need" a lot of the things we think we do. I also heard it described as a kind of suspended animation. Many, I know not all, will pick up right where they left off. It also puts a lot of things in perspective. Some things that I might have thought was really important a month ago, really isn't.

[TheTravellers]

Please. Take a minute...

It’s all sobering. There is no question about it. I just heard something this evening about something happening they said would be jaw-dropping news in any other situation (and I agree). President Trump openly admitted today he wants the U.S. government to tie all of the loans and grants to corporations with exchanges for partial governmental ownership in direct proportions to its investment!

This raises all kinds of questions. Besides it being one of the defining hallmarks of fascism (think Mussolini), it might signal that Donald Trump truly is enamored by, not only friendly authoritarian governments, but totalitarian ones as well. Maybe this explains his “envy’ at the power and pageantry that surrounds Kim Jong Un, his admiring comments about how the Chinese government wields its power. Maybe President Trump actually wants a Chinese-like economy? Complete with the top heavy clampdowns on dissidents. This sounds like something out of a movie - but these comments today have me wondering where this is all headed.

Thoughts? It’s on-topic as we’re not just talking economic “impact” with this, we could be talking an economic transformation.

Is this what you're talking about?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/polit...rus/index.html

[gopokes88]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-....co/KJvgkdqKNT


Testing. Hopefully we can ramp up testing.

There’s a chance we have a denominator problem with a highly contagious but not very deadly disease.

[OkiePoke]

Any comments on the $2 Trillion stimulus? How is it going to impact OKC (minus the individual part)? GoPokes88, does it help your business?

[gopokes88]

Any comments on the $2 Trillion stimulus? How is it going to impact OKC (minus the individual part)? GoPokes88, does it help your business?

Yeah we’re going through it.


It’s a mess but might be helpful. (SBA portions at least) It incentives taking losses though, so that’s probably not a good thing.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Yeah we’re going through it.


It’s a mess but might be helpful. (SBA portions at least) It incentives taking losses though, so that’s probably not a good thing.

Hey, we obviously disagree on some things, but I am really happy to hear this.
Good luck!

[TheTravellers]

Have not read in depth about what the bill contains, but if this article is correct, I'm aghast (not really, though).

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/senat...b62a1870d62d83

Final text of the bill has not been released, but according to a legislative draft, the new law would establish a $4.5 trillion corporate bailout fund overseen by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, with few substantive constraints. The bill permits bailed out companies to lay off up to 10% of their workforce over the next six months, with no restrictions thereafter. Mnuchin would have authority to waive any upside for the public in its new investments, and the bill’s restrictions on stock buybacks at bailed-out firms are too temporary to be significant. Bailed out companies could even pay dividends to their shareholders.

Bailout money will flow to the shareholders of large corporations, otherwise known as rich people. The oversight terms that Democrats secured are purely cosmetic, replicating the toothless provisions of the 2008 bank bailout that enabled watchdogs to report abuse but not actually prevent or rectify it.

“If you give vast amounts of public money to a single person with no real accountability, you won’t like what happens next,” Damon Silvers, the deputy chair of the oversight panel for the bank bailout, wrote on Tuesday.

In exchange for this takeover, Democrats got four months of more generous unemployment benefits for the millions who will be laid off and a one-time check of $1,200 per adult, eliminating a Republican restriction that would have limited poor people to just $600 and phasing out payments for six-figure incomes. These are not bad provisions, but they pale in comparison to the handout offered to the rich.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Have not read in depth about what the bill contains, but if this article is correct, I'm aghast (not really, though).

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/senat...b62a1870d62d83

Final text of the bill has not been released, but according to a legislative draft, the new law would establish a $4.5 trillion corporate bailout fund overseen by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, with few substantive constraints. The bill permits bailed out companies to lay off up to 10% of their workforce over the next six months, with no restrictions thereafter. Mnuchin would have authority to waive any upside for the public in its new investments, and the bill’s restrictions on stock buybacks at bailed-out firms are too temporary to be significant. Bailed out companies could even pay dividends to their shareholders.

Bailout money will flow to the shareholders of large corporations, otherwise known as rich people. The oversight terms that Democrats secured are purely cosmetic, replicating the toothless provisions of the 2008 bank bailout that enabled watchdogs to report abuse but not actually prevent or rectify it.

“If you give vast amounts of public money to a single person with no real accountability, you won’t like what happens next,” Damon Silvers, the deputy chair of the oversight panel for the bank bailout, wrote on Tuesday.

In exchange for this takeover, Democrats got four months of more generous unemployment benefits for the millions who will be laid off and a one-time check of $1,200 per adult, eliminating a Republican restriction that would have limited poor people to just $600 and phasing out payments for six-figure incomes. These are not bad provisions, but they pale in comparison to the handout offered to the rich.

I really opposed many of the unrelated conditions some Democrats were putting on their moving forward with the bill. But, we should all be outraged at this package which will lead to even further amassing of wealth at the very top. The top 0.1%, again proving they have a stranglehold on our government — and all of our lives. It’s not rich vs poor. It’s the very, very rich against *everyone else*.

[TheTravellers]

I don't have to explain, but very little of what you posted is true. It's typical left wing huffing and puffing poor people are going to get screwed. I have news for you, almost everyone in this is going to get screwed. The # of millionaires in America decreased by 500,000 last week.

Source: Me currently paying several very expensive lawyers to go through the bill and chart a path.

Then post back after your lawyers go through it and compare it to what I posted to clear things up, please.

Edit - stock buybacks are restricted to the term of assistance plus one year, and as noted in the article, final text has not been released. Haven't been able to find any other details corroborating my initial post, though.

[Thomas Vu]

Not sure if it's for all restaurants without drivethroughs in general but a friend told me he has to close his restaurant in edmond for the next 3 weeks.

[TheTravellers]

Not sure if it's for all restaurants without drivethroughs in general but a friend told me he has to close his restaurant in edmond for the next 3 weeks.

Pretty sure all restaurants in any county that's had a confirmed case are supposed to close their dine-in areas, but they can do takeout/delivery/curbside. So if your friend can do delivery/takeout/curbside, he can, just can't have people eating in his dining room.

"Stitt says that restaurants are being asked to remain open by offering takeout and delivery options, but not dine-in areas."

[mugofbeer]

I really opposed many of the unrelated conditions some Democrats were putting on their moving forward with the bill. But, we should all be outraged at this package which will lead to even further amassing of wealth at the very top. The top 0.1%, again proving they have a stranglehold on our government — and all of our lives. It’s not rich vs poor. It’s the very, very rich against *everyone else*.

I find it very hard to understand how you can come to conclusions about the bill when virtually nothing about it or how it works has been released? Very little of this bill, no matter what, will be palatable but COVID has rendered good choices out the window.

Exactly what rich people do you see benefitting from the info that has been released?

[Mr. Blue Sky]

I find it very hard to understand how you can come to conclusions about the bill when virtually nothing about it or how it works has been released? Very little of this bill, no matter what, will be palatable but COVID has rendered good choices out the window.

Exactly what rich people do you see benefitting from the info that has been released?

i’ve seen the same reports on the bill that you have. Do you not see it? I say let’s just wait. If, as advertised, it’s what much I’ve been reading, a lot of it is bad (mixed with some good). But I will refrain from further commentary until it’s all laid out in black and white.

[Thomas Vu]

Pretty sure all restaurants in any county that's had a confirmed case are supposed to close their dine-in areas, but they can do takeout/delivery/curbside. So if your friend can do delivery/takeout/curbside, he can, just can't have people eating in his dining room.

"Stitt says that restaurants are being asked to remain open by offering takeout and delivery options, but not dine-in areas."

Yeah turns out he heard wrong. Which is weird, cause it isn't anything different than what's going on the past...two weeks anyway? If nothing else I guess this will go on past easter, which was expected.

[AP]

[soonerguru]

Small businesses are going to be gone by the time they get theor money. SBA is slow and bureaucratic. The big corps will get tgeor cash lickety split fast.