2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

[catch22]

I think April will be much worse. The first week or two of March was sorta unwinding from normal-ish. April is anything but that.

Yes, April will be way worse. And right now the airlines are planning for May demand to be about 3%. United is expecting systemwide traffic for the entire month of May to be the total of what one normal day in May is. That's no bueno.

[gopokes88]

Yes, April will be way worse. And right now the airlines are planning for May demand to be about 3%. United is expecting systemwide traffic for the entire month of May to be the total of what one normal day in May is. That's no bueno.

May will be the bottom, June won't be nearly as bad. Everyday more and more American's are done with the lock-downs and will violate them.

[catch22]

May will be the bottom, June won't be nearly as bad. Everyday more and more American's are done with the lock-downs and will violate them.

I agree. But the projections for the airlines are much worse than they initially expected. They are talking only a 30-40% demand recovery by October 1 (D day for airline employees as the grant money provides protections only thru Sept 30.) Hopefully, those projections improve, also plenty of time between now and then.

[damonsmuz]

I just received a notice over the weekend that my trip on United and Air New Zealand was cancelled at the end of June. Catch, I'll do my best to help out your airline when they allow me to Cheers!

[Bill Robertson]

I’ve heard that passenger count is way down. I’m sure it is. I manage two facilities. One on Meridian across from the mega car rental and the other on 59th and Air Cargo. With the construction going on it was a pain to get between the two many times a day. For the past month it’s been no problem at all. And I pass by the “remote” parking lot. It’s pretty much empty.

[gopokes88]

Yikes. Looks like United is gonna cut October 1st

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...uts/index.html

[catch22]

Yikes. Looks like United is gonna cut October 1st

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...uts/index.html

Yup.

[catch22]

Yikes. Looks like United is gonna cut October 1st

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...uts/index.html

Keep in mind, this is partly posturing, partly hard truth. There are several union contracts entering negotiations this summer. Also, this again shifts the conversation back to the gov. for more aid in return for job protections.

United was the first one to open the conversation with DC lawmakers and was very quick to spell out how dire of a situation this is. Expect AA, DL, and WN to follow with similar letters in short order. Agree or disagree with it if you want but things are indeed dire and they aren't wrong to continue to ask for help, you can always ask - you might not get an answer you want. But the answer is always no if you don't ask. There's quite a lot of politics going on too, and I won't go into it as this is the wrong thread. But AA, DL, WN, and UA cutting 20% of their workforce 33 days before an election does not look good for the incumbent. That is well over 100,000 workers hitting the unemployment line on Oct 2. That's not good. I would expect some further aid, even if it is small, to come over the summer to push that date back to Jan 1, 2021 as it will at least kick the can further down the road away from election time and after Christmas.

[gopokes88]

Keep in mind, this is partly posturing, partly hard truth. There are several union contracts entering negotiations this summer. Also, this again shifts the conversation back to the gov. for more aid in return for job protections.

United was the first one to open the conversation with DC lawmakers and was very quick to spell out how dire of a situation this is. Expect AA, DL, and WN to follow with similar letters in short order. Agree or disagree with it if you want but things are indeed dire and they aren't wrong to continue to ask for help, you can always ask - you might not get an answer you want. But the answer is always no if you don't ask. There's quite a lot of politics going on too, and I won't go into it as this is the wrong thread. But AA, DL, WN, and UA cutting 20% of their workforce 33 days before an election does not look good for the incumbent. That is well over 100,000 workers hitting the unemployment line on Oct 2. That's not good. I would expect some further aid, even if it is small, to come over the summer to push that date back to Jan 1, 2021 as it will at least kick the can further down the road away from election time and after Christmas.

Yeah there might be another round of bailout or they’ve made an enemy in the president, regardless of how you feel politically, he is the president with the bully pulpit, United management could cave.

[gopokes88]

https://www.facebook.com/12318575437...669707339/?d=n

[catch22]

Yeah. I think there's a chance this will all be avoided anyway. Once demand shows an increase, it's not going to stop, short of another outbreak or something else god forbid. If demand is increasing around August (when they will have to start the furlough process to be in place by Oct) they will be in a tough spot. Furloughs cost money and don't provide the ramp up flexibility they need. They also crater morale which is not good for future employee relations. It's a tough call and I don't envy their position in the slightest.

[Executionist]

IMO, there will be no return to "normal" in the airline & hotel industry.

Both reap the majority of their profits from business travel, buying high-margin last-minute tickets, not those going on a weekend junket to Vegas or going to see grandma once a year.

My company has a $65m/year travel budget. Not only are we not spending it, but we have come to the conclusion that not getting on a plane has not impacted our ability to meet clients or conduct business, it's only changed the method. And clients are increasing fine with that. "Communication" has not been affected at all.

We've also decided to quit flying candidates in for face-to-face interviews, probably permanently. Zoom is just fine.

While there will be some resumption of event and conference travel, those will be on a much smaller scale and tickets & hotel rooms for those events are usually discounted anyway. Price wars will abound.

As a sometime road warrior - Million Miler on Delta and 8-year United 1k - frankly, many of us could care less if we never get on another plane again, given what a pain in the ass flying has become. Most of my road warrior pees feel the same way

As for OKC, a lot of the guys sitting next to me on the upgrade are from the O&G industry. Many of them have now taken their last flight on company-paid travel. Sure there will still be some rebound demand, but returning to 2019 levels will take years, it ever.

I'm not predicting gloom & doom, but I do predict a fundamental change in the entire travel industry, given the fact that we are finding we don't really need to go unless we really need to go, and the bean counters will likely be able to point to the data showing how cutting the travel budget hasn't impacted revenue and has increased margin, while not impacting client satisfaction.

[catch22]

I think you are right for the near term, but teleconferencing was supposed to impact business travel years ago, and it never did, in fact, business travel has grown at a rapid pace. I think businesses and consumers alike have short memories. It is possible business travel will rebound fine long term - there is a social aspect of face to face that cannot be replicated on a video call. On the other side of this recession, businesses will resume spending money like it is going out of style. They always have.

[LakeEffect]

I think you are right for the near term, but teleconferencing was supposed to impact business travel years ago, and it never did, in fact, business travel has grown at a rapid pace. I think businesses and consumers alike have short memories. It is possible business travel will rebound fine long term - there is a social aspect of face to face that cannot be replicated on a video call. On the other side of this recession, businesses will resume spending money like it is going out of style. They always have.

This. We do a lot of data requesting and gathering for our work and we never get the depth we need by submitting an email request and having a phone call; when we visit in person, we get so much more information. Some industries will always be better off with in-person client visits.

[gopokes88]

I think you are right for the near term, but teleconferencing was supposed to impact business travel years ago, and it never did, in fact, business travel has grown at a rapid pace. I think businesses and consumers alike have short memories. It is possible business travel will rebound fine long term - there is a social aspect of face to face that cannot be replicated on a video call. On the other side of this recession, businesses will resume spending money like it is going out of style. They always have.

Not to mention, inflation adjusted, travel has never been cheaper. It’s fantastic and I miss it.

[jonny d]

People have been predicting a new normal forever, yet nothing is new under the sun. I think this may, for a year or so, affect people. But once a vaccine is green-lit, people will go back to business as usual, for the most part. Business travel will return, as will vacation travel.

[Plutonic Panda]

People have been predicting a new normal forever, yet nothing is new under the sun. I think this may, for a year or so, affect people. But once a vaccine is green-lit, people will go back to business as usual, for the most part. Business travel will return, as will vacation travel.

And all of the alarmist and doomsayers will crawl back into the shadows until the next catastrophe hits. Rinse and repeat.

[catch22]

Sunday's blues.

UA OKC-IAD suspended until June
UA OKC-IAH reduced to 2x daily May
DL OKC-ATL reduced to 1x daily May

Alaska is combining OKC/ICT markets with a tag flight thru May 10. Will operate SEA-ICT-OKC/OKC-ICT-SEA

[sooner333]

Alaska is combining OKC/ICT markets with a tag flight thru May 10. Will operate SEA-ICT-OKC/OKC-ICT-SEA

Im surprised they aren’t cutting out a leg and going SEA-ICT-OKC-SEA. Maybe Wichita has some kind of contract With Alaska requiring a non stop flight.

[catch22]

Forgot,

UA OKC-ORD suspended until June
UA OKC-DEN reduced to 1x daily.

I think UA will only be operating 3 flights a day out of OKC in May. 1 to Denver and 2 to Houston. how sad.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Forgot,

UA OKC-ORD suspended until June
UA OKC-DEN reduced to 1x daily.

I think UA will only be operating 3 flights a day out of OKC in May. 1 to Denver and 2 to Houston. how sad.

Yes. I was supposed to fly to LGA on UAon May 1 and that ticket has become a 2 stop 14 hour behemoth. I'm trying not to jam up UA until closer to 72 hours so I can hopefully get all my miles back. Anyone else tried to get back airline miles on flight reservations during the pandemic?

[catch22]

Yes. I was supposed to fly to LGA on UAon May 1 and that ticket has become a 2 stop 14 hour behemoth. I'm trying not to jam up UA until closer to 72 hours so I can hopefully get all my miles back. Anyone else tried to get back airline miles on flight reservations during the pandemic?

Miles should go back in your bank. The United app has a lot functionality that the website does not. Have you tried canceling your ticket on the app?

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Miles should go back in your bank. The United app has a lot functionality that the website does not. Have you tried canceling your ticket on the app?

I haven't. I have the app but was worried that if I bought with miles, I would get screwed on the cancellation. I got screwed on a previous app cancellation for April 16 flight where they gave me United credit instead of my $ refund. I went to the full site to request a refund after that happened. So I am a bit gun-shy on the app. The app is great when flying though!

[Executionist]

Yes. I was supposed to fly to LGA on UAon May 1 and that ticket has become a 2 stop 14 hour behemoth. I'm trying not to jam up UA until closer to 72 hours so I can hopefully get all my miles back. Anyone else tried to get back airline miles on flight reservations during the pandemic?

Yes. Southwest refunded everything with the click of a button. I'm 1K on UA, and they would redeposit miles without penalty. Not sure about other status levels.

[catch22]

Current May schedule shows:

OKC at 37 daily departures (all airlines), down from 75 year prior.


Some peer cities:


OKC: 37, 75
TUL: 27, 58
ICT: 34, 15
RNO: 28, 71
OMA: 38, 88
DSM: 25, 57
TUS: 24, 57