General Weather Discussion - June 2019

[Anonymous.]

Starting June thread because the last two May days will be fantastic with highs in the 80s and sunshine, with minimal wind.

This weekend will be more of the same, but some NW flow kicks in as early as late Saturday night. This means storms out in SE CO and SW KS that start form into MCSes that push SE and eventually die out. Some nights, these will make it deep into OK, some nights they die out up in NW OK. It is pretty random and difficult to forecast.

That pattern looks to stick around for majority of first week of June.

[Anonymous.]

Snapshot of late Saturday night into early Sunday morning hours of a dying MCS draped across the state.

[SoonerDave]

Snapshot of late Saturday night into early Sunday morning hours of a dying MCS draped across the state.

Aren't we getting close to something along the lines of a Derecho? I remember in 2004 my family was leaving town on a vacation in San Antonio, and a derecho from KS came into OKC early and we bailed out of town really early, about a half-hour ahead of it....

[NikonNurse]

Ugh and the weather guys on TV make it sound like its going to rain the rain of Noah this weekend.

[Ian Drake]

Isn't the jet stream moving North? Isn't that the magical thing about June that immediately eliminates our nasty storms? It if moves far enough North these storms have no chance of surviving into OK? Why does Mesonet and Weather Channel show persistent chances till the middle of the month? People keep talking about "summer patterns" settling in but that does not appear to be the case.

[bchris02]

Isn't the jet stream moving North? Isn't that the magical thing about June that immediately eliminates our nasty storms? It if moves far enough North these storms have no chance of surviving into OK? Why does Mesonet and Weather Channel show persistent chances till the middle of the month? People keep talking about "summer patterns" settling in but that does not appear to be the case.

Overnight MCS clusters out of the northwest is very common and expected in June. It's the jet stream shift that typically stops the dryline setups that May is known for.

[SoonerDave]

Isn't the jet stream moving North? Isn't that the magical thing about June that immediately eliminates our nasty storms? It if moves far enough North these storms have no chance of surviving into OK? Why does Mesonet and Weather Channel show persistent chances till the middle of the month? People keep talking about "summer patterns" settling in but that does not appear to be the case.

You're confusing two different meteorological setups.

The jet stream that has moved north is one of the essential steering currents that can allow storms to become severe, rotating as they ascend. The mere absence if the jet doesn't eliminate the possibility of precipitation. All you need for that is contrasting airmasses.

This time of year, early June, the pattern changes from a Southwest flow, where low pressure systems "eject" of the desert southwest and move northeast. That steering current has moved more northerly, producing a very seasonal west/northwesterly flow. Large convergence areas form in the upper plains and head south or southeast toward Oklahoma. The areas of precipitation can be very broad and slow-moving, and last a long time. That's where you can get the soakers.

The *severe* risk is lower in this time of year because those steering currents that make those individual "cellular" storms is absent. That's why you get long lines of storms, rather than supercells, and those lines can be slow movers. That's where you hear the jargony "MCS" term - all that means is a large area of thunderstorms (Mesoscale Convective System).

This lasts the first part of June, and then you start looking for the "ridges of doom" - the big, blocking high pressure regions that lock in drier, hotter weather and keep storms out of the area. Just have to see how that evolves.

[Anonymous.]

So apparently these storms from way out west are actually going to make it to OKC this afternoon. Initial gust of wind and heavy rain is main threat. Should not last long, but enough to interrupt Saturday plans.

[Ian Drake]

So in effect we are done with severe weather and tornadoes for the year, just getting rain from now on?

[Anonymous.]

There is literally a line of severe storms coming in right now from the NW.

[jn1780]

So in effect we are done with severe weather and tornadoes for the year, just getting rain from now on?

The definition of a severe thunderstorm goes beyond tornadoes. We had some pretty expensive damaging hail events in July in the past. You just never know. Tornado is significantly lower now, but not zero.

[okatty]

Torrential rain and high winds in NW OKC. Really came in fast.

[Anonymous.]

This little cluster already heading out. Sunshine will be back out shortly. But we already have tonight’s storms developing out in the panhandle. This will be another MCS that tracks across NW into C OK and slowly dies out.

[Ian Drake]

Weather channel shows rain and storm chances till mid month. I though people were saying this stuff is all outta here within first week of June. Mesonet has chances for 7 days. What gives?

[jonny d]

Weather channel shows rain and storm chances till mid month. I though people were saying this stuff is all outta here within first week of June. Mesonet has chances for 7 days. What gives?

No. Only you have been saying that...

[Anonymous.]

Does this dude even read the posts here? Just looked at his post history and all he does is post his own desires about weather items and political topics here. Clearly approaching troll territory.

More random chances at afternoon storms today and tomorrow. Best shot is probably out in E OK.

Better chances for majority of state for Wednesday evening and Thursday this week.

[stile99]

Does this dude even read the posts here? Just looked at his post history and all he does is post his own desires about weather items and political topics here. Clearly approaching troll territory.

More random chances at afternoon storms today and tomorrow. Best shot is probably out in E OK.

Better chances for majority of state for Wednesday evening and Thursday this week.

Nope. It's a bot that makes OkcTalk a laughingstock on a daily basis. A simple captcha when posting would be the end. I keep reporting his spam but TPTB seem to find it amusing.

[snark0leptic]

Copy pasted from May's Discussion, shiny new member so my post was delayed a while.

Good morning, long time reader first time poster.

Here's a little thing I spun up yesterday from this idea:
https://discord.gg/vxFqEfY

Nothing overly complicated and if Discord is not the preferred setup then I can easily take it down, but it exists out in the internet now
05-30-2019

[Anonymous.]

Some stout cumulus going up west of OKC, these will likely turn into random thunderstorms over the new few hours and die out with sunset. Movement will be very random and storms will pulse up and down. Flash flooding is main threat, other wise maybe some strong wind gusts with collapsing thunderstorms.

[Bunty]

FLOOD WATCH
Areas Affected:
Garfield - Grant - Kay - Lincoln - Logan - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne and other counties mapped in green.
Effective: Thu, 6/6 2:48am Updated: Thu, 6/6 4:06am Urgency: Future
Expires: Sat, 6/8 4:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Localized Flash Flooding and River Flooding Possible...
.Training storms will result in prolonged periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding and river
flooding across north central and central Oklahoma.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
central Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma, including the
following areas, in central Oklahoma, Lincoln, Logan,
Oklahoma, and Payne. In northern Oklahoma, Garfield, Grant,
Kay, and Noble.
* Through Friday morning
* Numerous showers and storms with moderate to heavy rainfall will
persist over the watch area through early Friday morning.
Localized flash flooding and river flooding will be possible.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Counties in green covered:

[Anonymous.]

Flash Flood Warning for essentially all of OKC. Storms are developing as the low is coming across I-40. These rain and storms will be slow moving and pulse up and down in intensity across very localized areas. There could be drastic differences in amounts across all of C OK.

[gopokes88]

I’m over the rain. Way too okseattle out here

[okatty]

Some big time flooding in west side metro...

[Libbymin]

I have to imagine this being pretty frustrating for farmers this year.

[mugofbeer]

The Weather Channel is showing live feeds from KFOR of flooding and a water rescue.