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Thread: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

  1. #176

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by OKCRT View Post
    I think for us in OKC that we have dodged a bullet. At least that's what it feels like from listening to all the hype. And that's fine with me.
    Yep. Seems we missed on everything including the rain.

  2. #177

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Is the Cool side of the boundary killing the Tornados from fully developing? 55 degress in Elk city that's crazy

  3. #178

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Umm, Yes. One order of a line of storms please. Appreciate it.

  4. #179

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    New MD is out confirming latest model guidance. Development ahead of dryline looking less likely and this will be a sunset showdown across C OK with a line of supercells.
    Is there a consensus on the reason why there was no independent initiation in SC OK? SPC was saying they were seeing early signs of initiation in the region prior to the PDS being issued.....

  5. #180

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by brian72 View Post
    Is the Cool side of the boundary killing the Tornados from fully developing? 55 degress in Elk city that's crazy
    In this environment, yes.

  6. #181

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Is it time to pull out the B card yet? If this were an analogy it would probably be the soccer referee who has grabbed the card in his shirt pocket, but isn't ready to flash it just yet!

  7. #182

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    As of right now, this has “boy who cried wolf” written all over it.

  8. #183
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    I assume you mean for the metro.....there are wolves all over the place elsewhere.

  9. #184

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Its still early for OKC so get yer snacks out gonna be a long night this goes til 4am so 11 more hours. Too early to call it a ball vs strike imo

  10. #185

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by okatty View Post
    I assume you mean for the metro.....there are wolves all over the place elsewhere.
    You're right, this could still be something, but considering the language used by pretty much everyone leading up to today, it's largely underperformed. The language they've used was equal or similar to the 4/27/11 storm and by this point in the day they already had several EF3/4/5s on the ground (simultaneously I might add). We'll see what happens between now and 8pm.

  11. #186

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    The cloud cover today helped the metro. Very much so. May get some rain, but thankfully there was no sun today to warm us up.

  12. #187

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    So ridiculous!!! so much panicking and nothing happening. Unreal!!!!!

  13. #188

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by flyfisher07 View Post
    You're right, this could still be something, but considering the language used by pretty much everyone leading up to today, it's largely underperformed. The language they've used was equal or similar to the 4/27/11 storm and by this point in the day they already had several EF3/4/5s on the ground (simultaneously I might add). We'll see what happens between now and 8pm.
    Can’t compare to others this one is lasting to overnight. All of SW which is blowing up now will be here later. I agree about overdoing language but they saw signs in the data to make these claims. Wasn’t just OKC weathermen it was national saying it

  14. #189

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    I felt a raindrop! I felt a raindrop! In Edmond!

  15. #190

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Cant win them all. For whatever reason, south central couldn't get going. Cap appeared to build back in. There was one storm that did get going that produce tornado and these western storms are still producing . So half bust. It should evolve into a squall line event and that may have smaller embedded tornados and wind threat.

    Of course, crybabies are going to cry hype but meteorologist called it how they saw it

  16. #191

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    If people ever understand the concept behind risks and percentages, they will stop demanding “it’s gonna be an F4 at 5:45 across May and NW 50th” and “it’s gonna be absolutely nothing” forecasts.

    If you want certainties, stay away from weather forecasts, considering that everything impacts them and can change the potentials with every run of the forecast. All they can do is communicate the risk, they can’t help that after how many years with the NWS in our backyard people still don’t understand that a 90% risk doesn’t mean anything is gonna happen.

  17. #192

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    One of the earlier SPC outlooks talked about seeing MLCAPE values in the 4,500 range. That's high, but not stratospheric. I recall storm scenarios where we saw a *lot* higher CAPE numbers, like in the 6k area. That may relate back to.unexpected cap strength.

  18. #193

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    I have no problem with the predictions of today the data showed it to be a highest risk potential. Just like you can’t predict exact location a tornado will hit the system can evolve and change. So I fully support todays dire predictions.

    The problem is they over cover smaller storms all spring long and cut into tv when its just a thunderstorm. Thats why people complain about a dud is all the prior overkill. These stations spend mega bucks on coverage with helicopters and trackers and fancy radars and have to justify it. So they over cover non events and it wears people out where they get numbed. But today was 100% justified even if it fizzles out.

    Whats bad is all the rookie chasers clogging roads. Had there been many tornadoes it would have got ugly with chasers trapped.

  19. #194

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    The warm front has turned back into a cold front. It swept thru Surrey Hills far NW OKC about 10 minutes ago and the temp dropped a good 10 degrees. That’ll kill off most of the tornado threat.

  20. #195

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    *lives in one of the most unpredictable parts of the entire world as relates to weather*

    WHY CANT YOU GUYS GET THIS RIGHT, INSTEAD YOU SEND EVERYONE INTO PANICS

    It’s hard. And there’s millions of factors.

  21. #196

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    The storms around Altus still look pretty nasty

  22. #197

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    First world problems. Pretty much everyone has access to instant information and they probably seeked out the hyped up the reports that their now complaining about now.

    When I was a kid in 99. My mom and I got out of a movie and didnt really expect a huge tornado heading towards moore. I looked backed at historical outlooks and they were showing a slight risk morning of. Luckily, we have advance to the point where we can probably see events like May 3rd days away.

  23. #198

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    No way anyone can justify the scare tactics. This is out of control.

  24. #199

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by d-usa View Post
    If people ever understand the concept behind risks and percentages, they will stop demanding “it’s gonna be an F4 at 5:45 across May and NW 50th” and “it’s gonna be absolutely nothing” forecasts.

    If you want certainties, stay away from weather forecasts, considering that everything impacts them and can change the potentials with every run of the forecast. All they can do is communicate the risk, they canÂ’t help that after how many years with the NWS in our backyard people still donÂ’t understand that a 90% risk doesnÂ’t mean anything is gonna happen.
    You underestimate people’s capabilities to understand probability and statistics. For instance, they released a 45% probability of seeing a tornado within a 20 mile radius around any specific point within that polygon. That polygon was probably 40% of the state. So 40% of the state had slightly less than a coin flip to see a tornado within 20 miles of their doors. How many tornadoes where there today so far? So 38% of the state is that unlucky? Stay away from the casinos for a while Oklahoma! What that tells me is that the meteorologists missed something today. Where all the ingredients there for a major outbreak? Yes. Could there still be tornadoes? Yes. Was the forecast overblown? Yes. Hindsight is always 20/20. BUT the amount of hype was off the charts for this event, and it fizzled...to this point. Schools closed. Businesses closed. The state essentially shut down. How much money was lost because of this? I understand that we’re all better off safe than sorry. We’ve seen what happens when we’re not. However, if you start to erode the credibility of our meteorologists, you have that “boy who cried wolf “ scenario. All that being said, meteorologists have an incredibly tough job. Predicting the outcome of such a dynamic system is so incredibly tough! There are so many judgment calls to make. I just wish that we wouldn’t overdo it with all of the hyperbole. It only freaks people out.

  25. #200

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    David Payne will be on the Flood Warning now and straight line winds (should've been all along). They can land a Man on the Moon, but they can't tell that Colder air was going to push through? We have some crappy Weather models out there.

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