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  1. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    The MCS scenario looks a lot more likely than discreet supercells, at least in central/eastern OK. Then the threat of serious flash flooding is a real possibility which is much more dangerous than tornadoes as it affects way more people. Rivers are also running high so any more inflow could cause issues there as well.
    I think the flooding potential is becoming a major player in today's storm situation. If anyone lives near an area that is prone to flooding, be aware that moisture potential and existing saturated ground exacerbate that risk. Rainfall amounts are projecting in some areas to be as high as 5"+ in the span of just a few hours.

  2. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Anon, are you going to be in a position to do any live chatting or similar coverage today? Might post the URL for any newcomers as the day progresses.

  3. #128

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019


  4. #129

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Lines and map colors don't determine what will happen, but for what its worth. OKC metro is now in high risk zone.

    Morning northern storms were not as intense as expected.

  5. #130

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    2 questions: Are we looking at the historical start well off to the SW of Metro and move toward the metro from there?

    If that SW>NE pattern can be expected, what's the Hobart >Tuttle>Mustang>SWOKC>Downtown timeline look like?

  6. #131

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Teo9969 View Post
    2 questions: Are we looking at the historical start well off to the SW of Metro and move toward the metro from there?

    If that SW>NE pattern can be expected, what's the Hobart >Tuttle>Mustang>SWOKC>Downtown timeline look like?
    I think that's a difficult question because elevated stuff way out to the east of dryline could become surfaced based. NWS has timing anywhere from 10:00 am onwards.

    Small showers right now are firing off warm front that is quickly surging north.

  7. #132

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    i think many people are staying home today... traffic was significantly lighter on the interstates this morning.

  8. #133

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    I am currently out of town in a bad place data-wise. So of course this is the first High Risk day in over 2 years.

    Morning convection blasting off now. So we should see destabilization taking place as we head into the afternoon. Short-Range models do not paint a fun scene. Looking like we will see supercells develop out ahead of the dryline in addition to storms actually on the dryline.


  9. #134

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

    This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

  10. #135

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Worst-case scenario would be for an event to actually verify and happen. No point in scaring people when their already scared. Today has everyone's attention.

  11. #136

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Mother Nature hates Oklahoma.

    In all seriousness, stay weather aware, people. Don't let the hyperbole drive you insane, as it won't help. Just be respectful of the weather, and stay up to date.

  12. #137

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

    This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.
    even if it were only an EF1, if it directly hits your home... it would be "life-altering, and catastrophic", for the person whose home was hit...

    and this is why phrases like this have no basis in a scientific dissuasion of weather forecasting, and should not be used, as they are only there to incite fear.

  13. #138

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by jedicurt View Post
    even if it were only an EF1, if it directly hits your home... it would be "life-altering, and catastrophic", for the person whose home was hit...

    and this is why phrases like this have no basis in a scientific dissuasion of weather forecasting, and should not be used, as they are only there to incite fear.
    I wonder if people who use such inflammatory terms have actually experienced a hit: my family has. "Life-altering".....hmmm....maybe for a time, but we re-built. "Catastrophic"......this word is like the word "epic" for me. It's lost some of it's depth and awe in the keyboard warrior age. You are absolutely right: these phrases are only there to incite fear.

  14. #139

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

    This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.
    It is a very serious situation for sure, as we're in High Risks both for flooding and severe weather, but just wait and see what happens. I highly recommend following the NWS/SPC on this rather than chasers. Speaking as someone who has occasionally chased over the past couple years, many chasers (esp. amateur ones) are very prone to hype and over-"excitement". They want to see stuff. Don't trust them over professionals.

  15. #140

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    We on that Threat Level Midnight, bros.

  16. #141

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    The event is about an hour or two from getting started in the Texas Panhandle. Click image for larger version. 

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  17. #142

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Is the chat still up and usable? If so, can someone post the address. I thought I had it book marked but I can't find it. Thanks!

  18. #143

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    What kind of timeline are we looking at for OKC? Trying to gauge when I need to start heading home from work!

  19. #144

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    curious how the cloudiness will affect storm growth, it hasn't started to clear out yet

  20. #145

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by tyeomans View Post
    What kind of timeline are we looking at for OKC? Trying to gauge when I need to start heading home from work!
    I would aim to get home by 2. 3 at the latest.

    Latest thinking is 2 to 3pm for storms to form.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html
    Click image for larger version. 

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  21. #146

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    curious how the cloudiness will affect storm growth, it hasn't started to clear out yet
    See mesocale discussion I just posted. Things are already starting to bubble. Warm wet air is flooding in from the south. Already dewpoints in mid 60s up past I-40.

  22. #147

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    See mesocale discussion I just posted. Things are already starting to bubble. Warm wet air is flooding in from the south. Already dewpoints in mid 60s up past I-40.
    Interesting it mentions the possibility of this being a PDS

  23. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    Interesting it mentions the possibility of this being a PDS
    When the watch is issued, it will very likely be issued as a PDS. NWS forecasters have been using strong terms to describe the severe weather threat for today.

  24. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by baralheia View Post
    When the watch is issued, it will very likely be issued as a PDS. NWS forecasters have been using strong terms to describe the severe weather threat for today.
    SPC release indicates a PDS watch will be issued between 1-2pm due to very early stages of development in southern Oklahoma.

  25. #150
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by SoonerDave View Post
    I think the flooding potential is becoming a major player in today's storm situation. If anyone lives near an area that is prone to flooding, be aware that moisture potential and existing saturated ground exacerbate that risk. Rainfall amounts are projecting in some areas to be as high as 5"+ in the span of just a few hours.
    Yep, Stillwater is still in the running to get the most rain in the state by late Tuesday. So far around 1.50" has fallen, according to Mesonet.

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