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Thread: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

  1. #76

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by kukblue1 View Post
    Not sure I'm going out to by groceries before a tornado just to have the tornado wipe them away. But yeah maybe a generator for a big thunderstorm. Looks like Friday the CAP holds
    You don’t understand Okies then lol. Any snow or ice or tornado “prediction” drives them to their local grocer to buy mega items. I have no idea why but they just do. I always figured grocers must be in on it and give the weathermen a cut of the action for overdoing the forecasts.

    My tornado shelter is pre-stocked so I don’t need to go. And I have enough pantry food to last a long time if everything is shut down.

  2. #77

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Always good to have 8 or 10 food buckets around in Oklahoma

    https://store.jimbakkershow.com/prod...trees/buckets/

  3. #78

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Easy180 View Post
    Always good to have 8 or 10 food buckets around in Oklahoma

    https://store.jimbakkershow.com/prod...trees/buckets/
    With Costco here now folks can stock up there:

    https://www.costco.com/all-emergency-food.html

  4. #79

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Its looking like there will be a window of opportunity to destabilization to occur tomorrow after morning storms. Still a lot of uncertainty, but the door is cracked open.

  5. #80

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    Its looking like there will be a window of opportunity to destabilization to occur tomorrow after morning storms. Still a lot of uncertainty, but the door is cracked open.
    Yes and I hate to be that person I think 3 days out is still too far out but Monday if things can come together just right could be one of those days. Everything is there just needs to come together.

  6. #81

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by kukblue1 View Post
    Yes and I hate to be that person I think 3 days out is still too far out but Monday if things can come together just right could be one of those days. Everything is there just needs to come together.
    Meaning large tornadoes?

  7. #82

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by kukblue1 View Post
    Yes and I hate to be that person I think 3 days out is still too far out but Monday if things can come together just right could be one of those days. Everything is there just needs to come together.
    NWS Norman talked very strongly about Monday in this afternoon's AFD.

  8. #83

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    nm
    Last edited by SEMIweather; 05-17-2019 at 04:51 PM. Reason: duplicate reply

  9. #84

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Severe thunderstorm warnings out for the storms moving into the Metro from the SW right now. Looks like large hail will be the main threat.

  10. #85

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Monday is still the day. If everything still looks the same when Monday comes, it will be a high risk day.

  11. #86

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Looks like the main blob today will hit a lot farther west than models were showing so that helps with this afternoon’s threat correct?

  12. #87

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Well...the storm that just moved north through the city will have ruined everyone's plans to sleep in. Just a bit of hail at my place, but some crazy lightning and thunder.

  13. #88

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    Monday is still the day. If everything still looks the same when Monday comes, it will be a high risk day.
    The Numbers are off the Charts for Monday. About as high as you can get for Sheer. Moderate Risk is now out wouldn't be shocked if it's High at some point even before storms start.

  14. #89

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by kukblue1 View Post
    The Numbers are off the Charts for Monday. About as high as you can get for Sheer. Moderate Risk is now out wouldn't be shocked if it's High at some point even before storms start.
    They should issue a high risk with Day 2 outlook tomorrow in order to cause the forecast to bust Monday. Lol

  15. #90

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    I haven’t seen recent posts from Anonymous. What’s going on?

  16. #91

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    They should issue a high risk with Day 2 outlook tomorrow in order to cause the forecast to bust Monday. Lol
    Or Mass Panic only to get rain.

  17. #92

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    One thing Monday wont already be in place. Its warm front starts off along red river in the morning. So there is question on how far north it goes.

  18. #93

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Hey guys. I am currently out of town so I don’t have normal access and everything that I usually do. Of course I won’t be back in OKC until Tuesday, but I will still be trying to keep watch on what is happening.

    Right now for Monday afternoon the SPC has Moderate marked for all of C and W OK. This is usually SOP for potentially dangerous events. I think we could see upgrade to High risk on the morning of the event, but it will likely depend on the shear parameters that look to setup for either discrete cells coming off the dryline versus a large cluster or line of storms. At this time, it does appear that discrete supercells will be the result. And this could lead to several rounds of storms producing multiple tornadoes and large hail. If storms can remain separated enough, large and long-tracking tornadoes look possible, but this is nearly impossible to forecast even on day of. We will have to see what we have Monday morning. More heat = more danger. The moisture will very much be in place.

    Again sorry for the lack of updates, I am posting this from mobile.

  19. #94
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Some really amazing lightening off to the NW tonight. Click image for larger version. 

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  20. #95

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    The Sunday Morning Computer models are hinting at a major tornado outbreak now for Central and West Central Oklahoma. I'm sure it will change again but this is not looking good for central Oklahoma

  21. #96

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by kukblue1 View Post
    The Sunday Morning Computer models are hinting at a major tornado outbreak now for Central and West Central Oklahoma. I'm sure it will change again but this is not looking good for central Oklahoma
    What model are you looking at?

  22. #97

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    It seems to me that most of the CAMs (Hi Res models) are having trouble lifting the warm front as far to the north as the NAM and GFS have it, due to the large amount of rain that will stay north of it. Even the HRRR has the metro split.

  23. #98

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Dessert Fox View Post
    It seems to me that most of the CAMs (Hi Res models) are having trouble lifting the warm front as far to the north as the NAM and GFS have it, due to the large amount of rain that will stay north of it. Even the HRRR has the metro split.
    The warm front might be the key tomorrow. You don't want to be on or just south of warm front that is bad. Let's hope the warm front stays south. HRRR is model I was looking at. The Euro from last night was showing the warm front staying south of metro. Honestly not going to know until morning or even until storms form but I would be getting prepared today.

  24. #99

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Anyone else keep refreshing for next day 2 outlook from SPC? Lol

  25. #100

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    Anyone else keep refreshing for next day 2 outlook from SPC? Lol
    No change I'm sure it's hard for them to go high risk. I risk is normally for when storms start to form or have formed. They mentioned more SW Oklahoma. At this point who knows. I have seen some say storm 12-2 for the metro. Others are saying after 6. Either way if they form into a squall line then flooding become a bigger issue and more people died from flooding then the May 31 El Reno tornado

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