Hail in Stillwater Tues. evening around 7:30. Mostly pea to marble size with some a little bigger. Fortunately hail didn't get bigger. 62" rain, so far. The storm formed from overhead to the west side of the county and moved SE.
Looks like it will be getting busy starting Friday. SPC had several days outlined this morning.
This has the potential to be our most active severe weather period in years.
SPC has added a 30% probability on Day 4 (TX PH and far W OK). This will likely show up as moderate risk in the initial 3-day batch that we will see tomorrow.
SPC is also outlining 15% probabilities now for the following week that I mentioned yesterday. There is two distinct days of sharp dryline showing up consistently. SPC placing 15% risks on the 7 and 8 day outlooks is relatively rare. Confidence is decent a week out from the event.
Hard to gauge tornado threat this far out. but, you can bet the flooding risk is high with all this rain we have been receiving this year.
The stormchasers discord hasn't been this excited in years. To me that's usually a bad sign for weather lol.
And the dryline looks to be setting up in just the right place...from around El Reno down to Chickasha. Farther west and it's usually a squall line or MCS by the time it gets here and farther east means most of the severe is east of I-35. We can't know for sure until around the 48 hour window (or maybe even the day of) but this could end up being a very classic PDS setup for OKC.
Or when Rick Smith from NWS starts quoting twister.
https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/1128271452376113153
To be clear though to those who don't know, stormchasers are excited by the number of consecutive days in a row that they will get to chase which increases their chances. Not that one day in particular will be exceptionally bad, although we could get one of those days with this series of storms.
Edit: Looking at a forecast sounding for Monday would seem to apply that will be a TDS day. Again, way out in the future.
New Kids on the Block mixtape tour Saturday night. Damn right I'll be there.
Awe, darn. We waited a day, and everything changed. I am kinda glad, since I move into my new house this coming week.
Glad to hear my all you can drink craft beer odds are looking better for Saturday night.
Now we have gone from Doom and Gloom on Tuesday to If's on Wednesday to well the timing isn't right on Thursday and thing might not line up. I would imagine tomorrow we will be at the storm was weaker or moved a different direction.
Grocery stores will be disappointed, they need more end of days type forecasts lol. I always wondered if weathermen and grocery stores worked in tandem. I imagine the discussion goes like this: “If you push higher snow fall or big bad tornadoes we’ll give you 20% take of the increased sales”
You don’t understand Okies then lol. Any snow or ice or tornado “prediction” drives them to their local grocer to buy mega items. I have no idea why but they just do. I always figured grocers must be in on it and give the weathermen a cut of the action for overdoing the forecasts.
My tornado shelter is pre-stocked so I don’t need to go. And I have enough pantry food to last a long time if everything is shut down.
It's projected to be a big rain event for the state from Fri. to Tues. with Stillwater taking the most. I'll believe the hype when I see it.
May 23-29 doesn't look cool and dry.
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