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  1. #1

    Weather General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Starting the March thread now due to the next events coming up.

    Friday will be decent with highs approaching 50F.

    Saturday will be one of those days that gradually gets colder as the day goes on. Saturday night we will likely see drizzle and light rain showers develop across a large majority of the state and temperatures will fall to and just below freezing after nightfall. This will turn to freezing rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this time, it appears majority of impacts will be felt across N and NE OK.

    The big story will be the temperatures behind the precipitation. Sunday we will barely make it into the mid 20s and there will be 15+mph winds. Monday morning lows will be near single digits with a stout north wind putting windchills into the negatives. Monday OKC may not reach 20F. Tuesday morning lows will likely be in the teens and highs for Tuesday will get to about freezing.

    After this weekend, the next shot at precipitation appears to be the following weekend.


    Monday morning snapshot:

  2. #2

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    In like a lion, out like a lamb. Or in like a lamb, out like a lion.

    What happens if it is in like a polar bear?

  3. #3

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by stile99 View Post
    In like a lion, out like a lamb. Or in like a lamb, out like a lion.

    What happens if it is in like a polar bear?
    Trying not to get my hopes up too much regarding spring arriving on time this year. It's starting to look like I'm going to have to end up cancelling my spring break plans if another winter storm comes through next weekend.

  4. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Starting the March thread now due to the next events coming up.

    Friday will be decent with highs approaching 50F.

    Saturday will be one of those days that gradually gets colder as the day goes on. Saturday night we will likely see drizzle and light rain showers develop across a large majority of the state and temperatures will fall to and just below freezing after nightfall. This will turn to freezing rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this time, it appears majority of impacts will be felt across N and NE OK.

    The big story will be the temperatures behind the precipitation. Sunday we will barely make it into the mid 20s and there will be 15+mph winds. Monday morning lows will be near single digits with a stout north wind putting windchills into the negatives. Monday OKC may not reach 20F. Tuesday morning lows will likely be in the teens and highs for Tuesday will get to about freezing.

    After this weekend, the next shot at precipitation appears to be the following weekend.


    Monday morning snapshot:
    Now that we're in the evening, I'm curious to hear your thoughts about how likely you think the temperature forecast will verify for tomorrow? Today's forecast originally called for a high of 39F in OKC but the mercury didn't rise anywhere close to 30F. NWS also seems to think we'll hit 50F on Friday. The Rapid Refresh model is consistently showing colder temps for the same forecast hour than both NAM and GFS, though - showing an air temp of 29F by 10AM tomorrow, whereas NAM predicts air temps in the mid 30's and GFS predicts low 40's by that point.

  5. #5

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    I will fall out of my chair if it hits 40 tomorrow. Forecast models have failed so many times now with pushing this arctic bs outta here I ain’t buying it tomorrow.

  6. #6

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    40s are likely for OKC. If the sun can break through, we can touch 50. Some models keep low-level clouds, thus temperatures capped near 40. Regardless, it will feel like a warm front considering the last few days and the upcoming few days.

  7. #7

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Why did it not get much past 25 today. When the forecast was for mid upper 30’s??

  8. #8

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by BoulderSooner View Post
    Why did it not get much past 25 today. When the forecast was for mid upper 30’s??
    The stratus never cleared out like the models were predicting, which has been something of a consistent trend this winter. Between this, and arctic fronts moving in more quickly and further south than modeled, there have been so many temperatures busts over the last two months.

    Where skies did clear over far western Oklahoma late in the afternoon, temperatures did manage to rise into the 40s.

  9. #9

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by SEMIweather View Post
    The stratus never cleared out like the models were predicting, which has been something of a consistent trend this winter. Between this, and arctic fronts moving in more quickly and further south than modeled, there have been so many temperatures busts over the last two months.

    Where skies did clear over far western Oklahoma late in the afternoon, temperatures did manage to rise into the 40s.
    Thanks. So seems like with the extra cold yesterday. Today’s new high is in the low 40’s. Hopefully we get there

  10. #10

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    NWS now predicts a high of 35 today with this caveat: "Tricky temperature forecast today. Clouds will impact the amount of warm up today."

  11. #11

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Current cloud cover isn't looking like it will budge at the moment.


  12. #12

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    The OKC East Mesonet site got all the way up to 38F today, which is as warm as it's been since Tuesday, and as warm as it'll be until probably next Wednesday. Not great...

  13. #13
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Current cloud cover isn't looking like it will budge at the moment.

    Day and night animated satellite images from selectable regions across the country can be seen here:
    https://stillwaterweather.com/satloops2

  14. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    So are there any updates regarding the kind/qty of winter precip may be happening overnight?

  15. #15

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Looks like another bust. Just a cold Sunday ... no major "winter storm" or "ice storm". Even the windy part was removed from tomorrows forecast. Just 25 degrees chilly. (But those ratings ... whooo!)

  16. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    The latest GFS runs make it a little hard to be absolute either way about precip overnight. A blob starts around midnight near Woodward, and extends roughly south to Amarillo, but the next iteration six hours later.shows the blob east and northeast of central OK. The way the blob swings through - riding a wave going west to ENE, could leave OKC bone dry or give us the southern edge of the system as it passes. I'm no expert, but I don't think we can tell from these runs absolutely either way for OKC - precip or no.

  17. #17

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by SoonerDave View Post
    The latest GFS runs make it a little hard to be absolute either way about precip overnight. A blob starts around midnight near Woodward, and extends roughly south to Amarillo, but the next iteration six hours later.shows the blob east and northeast of central OK. The way the blob swings through - riding a wave going west to ENE, could leave OKC bone dry or give us the southern edge of the system as it passes. I'm no expert, but I don't think we can tell from these runs absolutely either way for OKC - precip or no.
    Every hi res hourly model shows almost nothing. Just a trace of precipitation at this point. Nam, Hrrr, Gem, Wrf.... Looks like a bust in terms of precipitation.

  18. #18

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Mark my words, it will be a super-bustapalooza for moisture...

  19. #19

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    The damger is the cold. Mon morning shows 7-9 depending and high on Mon is 24 and another cold 12-15 Tue morning. Lots of under 32 clock time so watch the pipes thats the real worry

  20. #20

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by sacolton View Post
    Looks like another bust. Just a cold Sunday ... no major "winter storm" or "ice storm". Even the windy part was removed from tomorrows forecast. Just 25 degrees chilly. (But those ratings ... whooo!)
    Posted five hours before Sunday even hits. Then Sunday hits and we get the forecasted glazing of ice with less than an inch of snow on top. There was no ice storm forecasted by anybody at any time in the last week.

    Awwww, how cute! We have another weather troll! We're getting quite the collection.

  21. #21

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Meteorologist don't know sh!t. They've gotten the weather wrong every day since I've been here the last few weeks. Why do people believe this nonsense. What a joke!

  22. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Drake View Post
    Mark my words, it will be a super-bustapalooza for moisture...
    Words marked. You were wrong. That is all.

  23. #23

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    I didn’t see any tv mets posting over an inch. All said iit was moving too fast to get much and the worst part would be the cold. It turned out to be moving fast, dropped frozen precip from the sky and it’s cold as shi* so I’m guessing they nailed this one.

  24. #24

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    They got this one right and we are now in deep freeze til sometime Tue.

    Drip lots of water tonight and its cheaper to spend a few bucks more for water than a busted pipe expense. I’ll also leave mine dripping all day Mon so no surprises later.

  25. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - March 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    ******** don't know sh!t. ****** gotten **** wrong every day since I've been here the last few weeks. Why do people believe this nonsense. What a joke!
    Seems amazingly autobiographical

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