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  1. #51

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by jedicurt View Post
    yes... but unlike some of the other "fresh faces", is in the realm of being a moderate
    Not taking a position on anything is not the same as being a moderate.

  2. #52

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Not taking a position on anything is not the same as being a moderate.
    yes... but his congressional voting record shows him to be on the right side of the large blob of most dems... so he is a bit left of people like Joe Biden and several other moderates, as Beto on a plot graph would be just on the edge of the large blob and not out by himself in the middle category... hence why i said being in the realm of being a moderate... he would be right on the edge of what you could call one. and his congressional voting record does show that

  3. #53

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Not taking a position on anything is not the same as being a moderate.
    my issue with him would be much more in the leadership category, in that he didn't really show any leadership in congress and was much more of a follower... so i don't know how inspiring or how much of a leader he could be...

  4. #54

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    The general consensus on Beto is that he's a bit too far left for Texas but about right for America. He lost to Ted Cruz but that's primarily because Texas is such a strong white evangelical state and so many people refused to even consider voting for Beto because of his stance on abortion and LGBT issues. The election was also right on the heels of the Kavanaugh confirmation debacle which highly energized religious conservatives. At the national level, this won't be as big of an issue for him.

    I really think he's one of the strongest candidates in the race so far and has probably the best shot at beating Trump.

  5. #55

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    The general consensus on Beto is that he's a bit too far left for Texas but about right for America. He lost to Ted Cruz but that's primarily because Texas is such a strong white evangelical state and so many people refused to even consider voting for Beto because of his stance on abortion and LGBT issues. The election was also right on the heels of the Kavanaugh confirmation debacle which highly energized religious conservatives. At the national level, this won't be as big of an issue for him.

    I really think he's one of the strongest candidates in the race so far and has probably the best shot at beating Trump.
    I'll predict today, that IF Beto is the nominee, it won't be close. He will lose convincingly IF Trump is the candidate running against him.

    This is no indication of my feelings for either candidate, just a prediction. All though I don't think he will make it that far, so it's probably never going to get proven right or wrong.

    I know some will say Obama this and that, but Obama was a zillion times more inspiring of a leader/talker than Beto is. And I didn't like what Obama was selling either, but I can see the natural ability that Obama had. Beto is not even in the same league.

  6. #56

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    I'll predict today, that IF Beto is the nominee, it won't be close. He will lose convincingly IF Trump is the candidate running against him.

    This is no indication of my feelings for either candidate, just a prediction. All though I don't think he will make it that far, so it's probably never going to get proven right or wrong.

    I know some will say Obama this and that, but Obama was a zillion times more inspiring of a leader/talker than Beto is. And I didn't like what Obama was selling either, but I can see the natural ability that Obama had. Beto is not even in the same league.
    oh... i firmly believe right now that there isn't a Dem who has announced who will beat Trump... much like the 2012 election, when the Republicans were facing a beatable Obama and didn't have any good candidate... i'm afraid the Dems are going to miss the same opportunity here

  7. #57

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by jedicurt View Post
    oh... i firmly believe right now that there isn't a Dem who has announced who will beat Trump... much like the 2012 election, when the Republicans were facing a beatable Obama and didn't have any good candidate... i'm afraid the Dems are going to miss the same opportunity here
    The problem for Trump in 2020 is that there isn't a lot of untapped white evangelical support he can drum up in the places he needs it. The election will be more similar to Bush v Kerry, except that Trump won't have the advantage of 9/11 or being perceived as a "war President" that Bush had. A social issues campaign focused on issues like abortion and LGBT, which I believe is what we will see, will likely increase Trump's margin of victory in Bible Belt states like Oklahoma but will lose him the election.

    My prediction is that Trump doesn't get impeached but he loses in 2020. The only way Trump wins is if a third-party candidate splits the anti-Trump vote, which is actually quite plausible.

  8. #58

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    You do have to at least appreciate the humor in that the press' favorite (Beto) is exactly what the Dems have been railing against for a while now.

    He is white.
    He is a man.
    He is rich.
    He is privileged.

    You just can't make this stuff up.

  9. #59

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    There's a lot of good orators out there. My neighbor can talk like a great attorney in a closing statement. Does that mean he should be president? I just feel Beto can give a great performance, but is a lightweight. Though, I still say Trump will NOT be the nominee next year. It could be for so many different reasons, I couldn't begin to count.

  10. #60

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Also, don't take this any way other than a political observation: Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, has zero chance at being elected president in 2020. I know he had a performance on the CNN Town Hall that impressed a lot of people. But the political reality is that the United States will not elect a 37-year-old, openly gay and married to his man, mayor of South Bend as president. Trump made an outside the box candidate a non-starter next year. They will make a lot of noise, but in the end I think it might be a very familiar face who will take on whoever the GOP puts up -- and again -- I truly believe it won't be Donald Trump.

  11. #61

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    You do have to at least appreciate the humor in that the press' favorite (Beto) is exactly what the Dems have been railing against for a while now.

    He is white.
    He is a man.
    He is rich.
    He is privileged.

    You just can't make this stuff up.
    There you go again playing the race card.
    Don't hassle me, I'm local.

  12. #62

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Stew View Post
    There you go again playing the race card.
    And they say the liberals do that. Trump supporters love playing identity politics. In fact their entire ideology is built on their own identity as "real Americans" e.g. WASP vs. the other eg. immigrants, gays, trans people, black people, atheists, Muslims, non-Christians, poor people, etc, etc, etc.

  13. #63

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    And they say the liberals do that. Trump supporters love playing identity politics. In fact their entire ideology is built on their own identity as "real Americans" e.g. WASP vs. the other eg. immigrants, gays, trans people, black people, atheists, Muslims, non-Christians, poor people, etc, etc, etc.
    Don't pawn the libs off as innocent. It is them that often eat their own because someone crossed some imaginary intersectionality line they weren't supposed to cross. I just find it interesting that Beto can somehow buck the trend. He should be savaged, if recent history were any indication.

    This is the type of thing they usually do to rich white men...

    Howard Schultz says he grew up in a poor, rough place. Those who lived there called it the ‘country club of projects.’ @ WaPo

    Now do Beto.

    See feminisms declining place in the lefts hierarchy.

    Also, is it really a standard business practice for politicians to pay consultants who are related to them (spouse). Beto and AOC have "practiced" this. Is this not a violation of any kind?

  14. #64

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    I think Beto is favored by the media because when they look in the mirror they (think) they see him. Someone that was raised up middle class. Meandered in life a bit. Found themselves helping the downtrodden (narrator: while at the same time attempting to enrich your in-laws).

    Lightweight is a mild description of Beto.

    Personally I think Bernie is in the drivers seat at the moment. I can't remember the poll recently, but essentially it showed that while Bernie was currently tracking second, he was virtually everyone's second choice. So eventually a bunch are gonna drop out of the race.

    Also, it doesn't seem to matter who jumps in, Bernie just sticks there at 20%-30%. I think Warren thought she was going to steal Bernie's thunder, but that hasn't really panned out (all be it most of her problems were self inflicted). I just think Bernie is kind of like Trump last time. Huge field. He has his corner staked out, the rest eat themselves, leaving him the lone survivor.

  15. #65

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Beto strikes me as more of a young John Kerry than anything else.

    So basically (i) privileged; (ii) delicate; and (iii) easily defeated in the general.

  16. #66

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by chuck5815 View Post
    Beto strikes me as more of a young John Kerry than anything else.

    So basically (i) privileged; (ii) delicate; and (iii) easily defeated in the general.
    Except George W. Bush wasn't Donald Trump.

    People living in Fox News land don't understand how much Trump is hated outside of his base.

  17. #67

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by jedicurt View Post
    oh... i firmly believe right now that there isn't a Dem who has announced who will beat Trump... much like the 2012 election, when the Republicans were facing a beatable Obama and didn't have any good candidate... i'm afraid the Dems are going to miss the same opportunity here
    I agree with you. Unless the economy tanks, Trump is going to have a lot of advantages going for him. Incumbency during a strong economy is a huge advantage. As in, I don't think one has ever lost. At least not in the last 100 years (I couldn't find analysis for William Howard Taft's economy). Plus, I think Trump was mostly screwing around with his campaign in 2016 -- I think it started as a publicity stunt and he didn't take it seriously until late in the game. He only spent a fraction of what Hillary did. I believe he'll take re-election much more seriously.

    The other advantage that Trump has is that his first term has given him a certain amount of legitimacy. There were a lot of people who laughed at the idea of Trump being President. Up to that point he had just been a crazy celebrity. But he's been President now for two years and the world hasn't ended yet. He's certainly unconventional, but he hasn't started any wars, and he has some successes that he can point to.

    Unless something extremely damning comes out in the Mueller report (something that Republicans think is damning, not just Democrats), I don't think that's going to hurt him. Trump is a sleazy businessman who bangs hookers, but everybody already knew that before the 2016 election. There'd have to be something absolutely rock solid in there that would make Republicans turn against him in large numbers, and if there was something like that, we'd have already heard about it.

  18. #68

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Except George W. Bush wasn't Donald Trump.

    People living in Fox News land don't understand how much Trump is hated outside of his base.
    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chuck5815 View Post
    Beto strikes me as more of a young John Kerry than anything else.

    So basically (i) privileged; (ii) delicate; and (iii) easily defeated in the general.
    Except George W. Bush wasn't Donald Trump.

    People living in Fox News land don't understand how much Trump is hated outside of his base.
    I remember how much W was hated. I haven't seen any mass protests with people chanting "Trump Lied, People Died!"

    I'm not saying that the Democrats can't win. I'm sure there's a path to victory for them somewhere. But I don't think it will be easy at all. Biden and Bernie are both very old, and both have baggage. Kamala Harris is probably the next best bet, but I haven't heard many Dems who are really excited about her. Then you've got a bunch of candidates all polling under 10% (Beto, Warren, Klobuchar, etc). Most of them don't have a chance in hell.

    We'll see if they can pull it off, but right now I'm not seeing a really strong challenger out there.

  19. #69

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by hoya View Post
    I remember how much W was hated. I haven't seen any mass protests with people chanting "Trump Lied, People Died!"
    That's because so far the Trump era has gone surprisingly smooth so far in terms of global circumstances. If we get into another war in the Middle East you can bet more people will probably take to the streets.

    Quote Originally Posted by hoya View Post
    I'm not saying that the Democrats can't win. I'm sure there's a path to victory for them somewhere. But I don't think it will be easy at all. Biden and Bernie are both very old, and both have baggage. Kamala Harris is probably the next best bet, but I haven't heard many Dems who are really excited about her. Then you've got a bunch of candidates all polling under 10% (Beto, Warren, Klobuchar, etc). Most of them don't have a chance in hell.

    We'll see if they can pull it off, but right now I'm not seeing a really strong challenger out there.
    On the other side of that most people have already made up their mind about Donald Trump. There aren't very many people out there undecided about him. Trump has maybe slightly more than 40% of Americans. The entire election is going to depend on who turns out to vote and where. He's already lost his supporters who were willing to take a gamble on him because Hillary was such a bad candidate. While they may only be 5% or so of his supporters, that's enough to lose him the Rust Belt, especially since his white evangelical base isn't as strong there. So yes, I think Trump has a steeper climb to reelection than most of his supporters believe.

  20. #70

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    At this point in time absolutely nothing can be predicted. The leaders in GOP polling 17 months out in 2015 were Scott Walker and Rudy. It's a fools errand to disect anybody decrying "no way".

  21. Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Except George W. Bush wasn't Donald Trump.

    People living in Fox News land don't understand how much Trump is hated outside of his base.
    This is the same thing everyone said leading up to 2016 and he still beat a much better funded and better run campaign. Not saying he can't lose, but that type of logic isn't going to get the democrats to the finish line. I think people outside his base are even more delusional about his popularity than they were in 2016.

  22. #72

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    That's because so far the Trump era has gone surprisingly smooth so far in terms of global circumstances. If we get into another war in the Middle East you can bet more people will probably take to the streets.
    I'm saying that Bush was just as hated by the Democrats as Trump. The opposition to him was just as strong.

    On the other side of that most people have already made up their mind about Donald Trump. There aren't very many people out there undecided about him. Trump has maybe slightly more than 40% of Americans. The entire election is going to depend on who turns out to vote and where. He's already lost his supporters who were willing to take a gamble on him because Hillary was such a bad candidate. While they may only be 5% or so of his supporters, that's enough to lose him the Rust Belt, especially since his white evangelical base isn't as strong there. So yes, I think Trump has a steeper climb to reelection than most of his supporters believe.
    I agree that most people have made up their minds about him. I disagree with the idea that he's lost much support. A lot of people held their nose to vote for him, and I don't think their opinions have changed. With a strong economy, I think they'll do it again.

    A big question is how far to the left the Democratic nominee will have to go to secure the nomination, and whether they will then be able to win some of those battleground states.

  23. #73

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by PhiAlpha View Post
    This is the same thing everyone said leading up to 2016 and he still beat a much better funded and better run campaign. Not saying he can't lose, but that type of logic isn't going to get the democrats to the finish line. I think people outside his base are even more delusional about his popularity than they were in 2016.
    I'm not. I know that he could be caught on camera eating a baby and 40% of Americans would continue to worship him as a messiah simply because he triggers the right people.

    And the Trump economy is starting to show it's ugly face. He won't be able to run on a strong economy in 2020. We are likely to be in recession and the recession will be far worse than it otherwise would have been thanks to his incompetence. He'll have to rely on fear mongering and social issues like abortion to be re-elected. Could it work? I think there's a strong chance but it will be more of an uphill climb than his supporters believe.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1QS245

  24. #74

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    Except George W. Bush wasn't Donald Trump.

    People living in Fox News land don't understand how much Trump is hated outside of his base.
    On the flip side, I don't think people that hate him realize how many people really don't give a ****.

  25. #75

    Default Re: 2020 Presidential Race

    Quote Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
    I'm not. I know that he could be caught on camera eating a baby and 40% of Americans would continue to worship him as a messiah simply because he triggers the right people.

    And the Trump economy is starting to show it's ugly face. He won't be able to run on a strong economy in 2020. We are likely to be in recession and the recession will be far worse than it otherwise would have been thanks to his incompetence. He'll have to rely on fear mongering and social issues like abortion to be re-elected. Could it work? I think there's a strong chance but it will be more of an uphill climb than his supporters believe.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1QS245
    I think your first sentence just proved how delusional you may be. There may still be some moon bat types that would follow him to the end of the earth, but by and large the "base" are people that see him doing things that are presidential, while maybe unconventional. Apparently some are more open to change then others.

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