2019 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

[catch22]

Looks like our friends up the turnpike are getting TUL-BWI on Southwest.

[catch22]

https://transportation.house.gov/new...-certification

Again, it's not a training issue or superior US pilots. The system itself is a flawed death trap.

But perhaps most chillingly, we have learned that shortly after the issuance of the airworthiness directive, the FAA performed an analysis that concluded that, if left uncorrected, the MCAS design flaw in the 737 MAX could result in as many as 15 future fatal crashes over the life of the fleet—and that was assuming that 99 out of 100 flight crews could comply with the airworthiness directive and successfully react to the cacophony of alarms and alerts recounted in the National Transportation Safety Board’s report on the Lion Air tragedy within 10 seconds. Such an assumption, we know now, was tragically wrong.

Despite its own calculations, the FAA rolled the dice on the safety of the traveling public and let the 737 MAX continue to fly until Boeing could overhaul its MCAS software. Tragically, the FAA’s analysis—which never saw the light of day beyond the closed doors of the FAA and Boeing—was correct. The next crash would occur just five months later, when Ethiopian Airlines flight 302 plummeted to earth in March 2019.

[damonsmuz]

Change of topic: I see The OU Football team is already in Atlanta (per OU social media), but, I didn't see any charters fly out of OKC listed today. Anyone know who they chartered with and when they left?

[damonsmuz]

Change of topic: I see The OU Football team is already in Atlanta (per OU social media), but, I didn't see any charters fly out of OKC listed today. Anyone know who they chartered with and when they left?

EDIT: NEVERMIND, just a few players flew. Team did not

[PaddyShack]

Looks like our friends up the turnpike are getting TUL-BWI on Southwest.

This might be nice, I wonder if it would be cheaper or the same price as OKC.

[BG918]

Looks like our friends up the turnpike are getting TUL-BWI on Southwest.

About time, Tulsa-DC was a big hole since United dropped the IAD nonstop. Hoping they add it back someday. I would bet TUL gets PHL and/or LGA on AA before a DCA flight. Just not enough slots for a smaller non-state capital city.

[Snowman]

Novembers numbers are out, already broke 4 million pax for the year, so two years in a row. https://flyokc.com/sites/default/fil...lanement_0.pdf

[HangryHippo]

November was rough for several airlines.

[catch22]

Novembers numbers are out, already broke 4 million pax for the year, so two years in a row. https://flyokc.com/sites/default/fil...lanement_0.pdf

Those are extremely concerning numbers. One month does not a trend make - however. I will be curious to see what December and January show.

The armchair airline-statistician in me wants to find a logical explanation for the sharp drop off, but I can't find one. A late Thanksgiving could ve a factor in VFR (visiting friends and relatives) traffic combining a trip with Christmas. I doubt it as the entire industry was busy over Thanksgiving in line with normal years - OKC would follow suit.

[catch22]

Nov 2019 had 5 fridays, 5 saturdays, and 4 sundays. Compared to 2018 with 5, 4, and 4 respectively. Usually the placement of a weekend in a month will skew numbers slightly, but not 7%

[brianinok]

Nov 2019 had 5 fridays, 5 saturdays, and 4 sundays. Compared to 2018 with 5, 4, and 4 respectively. Usually the placement of a weekend in a month will skew numbers slightly, but not 7%

Thanksgiving fell on the 28th this year. Sunday was on Dec 1. In 2018 Thanksgiving the 22nd and Dec 1 wasn't until 9 days after Thanksgiving. I'm sure in 2018 all Thanksgiving travel was contained in November. I bet some of 2019 Thanksgiving travel shows up in early December. How much I couldn't guess.

[catch22]

Thanksgiving fell on the 28th this year. Sunday was on Dec 1. In 2018 Thanksgiving the 22nd and Dec 1 wasn't until 9 days after Thanksgiving. I'm sure in 2018 all Thanksgiving travel was contained in November. I bet some of 2019 Thanksgiving travel shows up in early December. How much I couldn't guess.

7% is approximately 2 entire days worth of passengers (about 5-6k enplanements per day). That is significant. The placement of holidays and weekends typically accounts for a 1-2% fluctuation either way.

[soonerguru]

7% is approximately 2 entire days worth of passengers (about 5-6k enplanements per day). That is significant. The placement of holidays and weekends typically accounts for a 1-2% fluctuation either way.

OKC is in recession. It may be fairly mild by historical standards, but it's pretty obvious. For the last two or three months, it's rare I go out and see a full restaurant (unless it's a hyped opening). Some of the entertainment districts are quiet even on weekends. I know this is just anecdotal but the overall energy of the city is subdued.

I guess the thousands of layoffs in local energy companies we have been reading about over the last couple of years are having an impact. Time will tell how much.

I also heard from a friend who just moved here from Portland with his significant other that OKC is now a "renter's market." Now, given how cheap our city is compared to others, it's possible his perception is skewed. But he landed a nice two-bedroom, fully renovated pre-war duplex a block from the Plaza for around $900. He said he looked at several apartments in prime areas that have been on the market for over 30 days.

What does this mean? I don't know. I'm not a real estate expert. Perhaps the building and flipping is having an impact on supply, but again, it sounded like he had a good pick of nice places, and some less than what he will be paying. Overall, I've been concerned that rising rents would have a negative impact on OKC's growth, so this is probably a good thing.

[BG918]

OKC is in recession. It may be fairly mild by historical standards, but it's pretty obvious. For the last two or three months, it's rare I go out and see a full restaurant (unless it's a hyped opening). Some of the entertainment districts are quiet even on weekends. I know this is just anecdotal but the overall energy of the city is subdued.

I guess the thousands of layoffs in local energy companies we have been reading about over the last couple of years are having an impact. Time will tell how much.

I've wondered if the overall downturn in the energy business would start to affect things like this. There is definitely an impact, though not as pronounced as the last energy recession in 2014-15.

[gopokes88]

OKC is in recession. It may be fairly mild by historical standards, but it's pretty obvious. For the last two or three months, it's rare I go out and see a full restaurant (unless it's a hyped opening). Some of the entertainment districts are quiet even on weekends. I know this is just anecdotal but the overall energy of the city is subdued.

I guess the thousands of layoffs in local energy companies we have been reading about over the last couple of years are having an impact. Time will tell how much.

I also heard from a friend who just moved here from Portland with his significant other that OKC is now a "renter's market." Now, given how cheap our city is compared to others, it's possible his perception is skewed. But he landed a nice two-bedroom, fully renovated pre-war duplex a block from the Plaza for around $900. He said he looked at several apartments in prime areas that have been on the market for over 30 days.

What does this mean? I don't know. I'm not a real estate expert. Perhaps the building and flipping is having an impact on supply, but again, it sounded like he had a good pick of nice places, and some less than what he will be paying. Overall, I've been concerned that rising rents would have a negative impact on OKC's growth, so this is probably a good thing.

1. Recessions take at least 6 months, so check back in another 3.

2. Layoffs haven't been in the thousands, even cumulatively. We never really recovered, so there wasn't thousands to lay off. The service side has had a big slow down but those aren't "local energy companies"

3. Always very reliable data. Guy from Portland declares OKC a renters market. Well hell must be true then.

4. Yeah that's pretty clear.

[Richard at Remax]

With interest rates where they are now, I would hardly call OKC a renters market. Granted all 5 of my rentals are full lol

[damonsmuz]

Also to note, there was a massive winter storm that moved in a few days before Thanksgiving. I know Denver was practically shut down for a bit. That could have something to do with the numbers for Frontier,United and Southwest.

The storm then went on to dump a bunch of snow and ice across The Upper Midwest and then NE.

In other words, I'd say a bulk of these numbers are due to weather. Anyone have access to Tulsa month stats?

[soonerguru]

Layoffs haven't been in the thousands, even cumulatively. We never really recovered, so there wasn't thousands to lay off. The service side has had a big slow down but those aren't "local energy companies"

What? No. Devon has had multiple rounds of layoffs over the last couple of years. Halliburton announced that it is "moving" 800 jobs out of the metro area in the last couple of weeks. Chapparal announced layoffs recently, and many others. A few hundred here, a few hundred there adds up to the thousands.

No reason for such a snarky tone.

[PoliSciGuy]

You made sweeping generalizations based upon anecdotes bemoaning that the end was nigh because of empty restaurants. I think some snark was well founded.

And yeah it'll be interesting to see how December bounces back. For comparison's sake, Tulsa also experienced a 7% decrease Y2Y in November and Omaha was down 6%. I think the dates/weather can explain a lot considering that this decrease seems to be similar across same-sized airports, rather than Chicken Littling about the sky falling and what people in Portland are saying about us.

Tulsa data: https://www.tulsaairports.com/wp-con...ity-Report.pdf
Omaha data: https://www.flyoma.com/wp-content/up...statistics.pdf

[damonsmuz]

I looked but couldn't find any info, but is Delta running any additional flights or upgauges to ATL for The Peach Bowl???

If not Delta, any other airlines being chartered?

[gopokes88]

What? No. Devon has had multiple rounds of layoffs over the last couple of years. Halliburton announced that it is "moving" 800 jobs out of the metro area in the last couple of weeks. Chapparal announced layoffs recently, and many others. A few hundred here, a few hundred there adds up to the thousands.

No reason for such a snarky tone.

Chaparral “layoffs” were like 50 people. Their entire workforce is only 250.

Devon has been having layoffs but it’s a couple hundred at a time. Since their big one post crash, it’s probably around 500.

CHK has had small reductions but the huge one lawler did originally was the only big.

SD died in the crash and never recovered.

Roan never had a huge head count.

Halliburton isn’t a “local energy company”, they’re a global oilfield service provider.

If you want to energy fine, but don’t make sweeping generalizations in which you A. Have a buddy from Portland as a source and B. Have no clue what you’re talking about.

[brianinok]

https://flyokc.com/sites/default/fil...nplanement.pdf

December was up slightly. Over 4.4 million passengers through OKC for the year.

American had another massive month, up over 17% from last year.

[gopokes88]

Looks like November was just a blip

[flyfisher07]

Any idea where to find data on the amount of daily passengers OKC has to City's where we don't have direct flights?

[brianinok]

After seeing these numbers with the 7% drop for Delta, it is again in question why Delta is getting the newest, nicest gates at the airport. And that 7% drop was in a month where OU played its bowl game in Atlanta, by far the busiest Delta hub from OKC.