Widgets Magazine
Page 1 of 7 123456 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 154
  1. #1

    Weather General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    New month time. Tomorrow (Friday) will be mild and humid ahead of a strong storm system. C OK could see some storms develop directly overhead afternoon into evening Friday, but it is unlikely. The more likely scenario is development taking place east of C OK. Far E OK could see some solid severe weather overnight.

    After that, 60s again Saturday, and 50s Sunday. Cold air really starts to filter in heading into next week. Highs will struggle to get out of the 40s for the entire week.


    Going to go ahead and say preliminary Bread & Milk Watch for next weekend December 7th-ish. A storm will be in the area with iffy temperatures.

  2. #2

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Warmfront boundary essentially has C OK split in half and a dryline retreating much further west than forecast. This will setup C OK for possible development of storms this afternoon just west of OKC. Storms will likely be supercell in nature and have non-zero tornado potential. Although it is likely storm maturity may not be fully realized until they pass OKC, keep eye on radar and local weather in the 5-8pm time frame.


    I would place emphasis on any storms that develop immediately west of OKC in the Anadarko - El Reno - Yukon corridor for keeping closest eyes on.



  3. #3

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    MD is out. Tornado watch coming in next hour.




    Mesoscale Discussion 1668
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

    Areas affected...portions of north-central tx into central ok

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 302151Z - 302315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase after 23z from portions of
    north-central TX into central OK. Large hail is likely with this
    activity along with some tornado threat. WW will likely be issued by
    00z.

    DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading east
    across the southern High Plains at roughly 30kt. Latest visible
    satellite imagery supports this with blowing dust and strong
    westerly surface flow approaching southwest OK. Strengthening
    mid-level height falls, on the order of 150-210m, during the latter
    half of the period are inducing a focused low-level response across
    the Red River valley into central OK. Modified Gulf air mass has now
    spread into all but extreme southwest OK with mid 50s surface dew
    points now into Jackson County. Over the next few hours, near 60 dew
    points are expected to advance into central OK. Given the
    aforementioned speed of approaching large-scale forcing, latest
    thinking is deep convection should develop by 23z over southwest OK,
    perhaps extending south of the Red River into northwest TX. Very
    strong shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercell
    development by early evening. Large hail is expected with this
    initial activity. As convection spreads toward the I-35 corridor a
    bit more moist profiles will become more supportive of potential
    tornadic development, especially where lower-mid 60s dew points are
    encountered. Back edge of severe convection should shift east of
    I-35 by 03z.

    ..Darrow/Hart.. 11/30/2018

  4. #4

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018


  5. #5

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Also I just realized I am posting all of this in December.. Oh well. lol

  6. #6

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    TOR watch is out:


  7. #7
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    12,689
    Blog Entries
    3

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Tornado Watch - Includes all Oklahoma City Metro Area
    Updated: Fri Nov-30-18 05:21pm CST
    Effective: Fri Nov-30-18 05:20pm CST
    Expires: Sat Dec-01-18 12:00am CST

    Severity: Severe
    Urgency: Expected
    Certainty: Likely

    Status: Actual
    Type: Alert
    Category: Met

    TORNADO WATCH 429 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST
    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
    CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
    CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND
    COAL COMANCHE COTTON
    CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
    GARVIN GRADY HASKELL
    HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
    KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE
    LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
    MARSHALL MAYES MCCLAIN
    MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE
    NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
    OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
    OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
    PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
    PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE
    SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN
    TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
    Counties covered in yellow.

  8. #8

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    You called it on the El Reno/Anadarko area!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	784A3618-D000-4342-AEEB-F0A5C28F3A06.jpg 
Views:	28 
Size:	12.6 KB 
ID:	15047

  9. #9

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Cell east of Anadarko and N of Chickasha is ramping up some. Numerous cells are firing in the area, which will help limit any isolated supercells, but LLJ will kick in and may cause some isolation issues in a couple hours.

  10. #10

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    That cell is the only game in the state right now. Hail size ramping up. Like I mentioned earlier today. OKC will probably get past these before full storm maturity and LLJ will make these more dangerous off to the east.

    Right now hail is moving into Tuttle and soon S Mustang area.

    SVR warnings issued for all C OK based on that cell described above.

  11. #11

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Main threat with the initial storms is heading out of OKC now ~7:30pm.

    Strongest storm in state is backside and will be heading into W Duncan soon. Short-range models expand this backside development and race it back into OKC later tonight, but I have my doubts it develops that far north. I will keep watching radar.

  12. #12

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Okay looks like that last round of storms will actually impact OKC. Right now they are not severe, but are moving VERY fast. Gusty winds with the initial impact will be biggest threat. After these we will be in the all clear. Enjoy your windy Saturday.

  13. #13

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    All eyes now turn to the potential for a significant winter storm Thursday-Saturday. Models have some disagreement but it looks like ice and/or snow totals could be fairly high. First graphic out of NWS Norman:


  14. #14

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Classic southern plains winter storm still being picked up on by models. Temperatures and track will determine locations of impacts, but impacts do look to be significant wherever they take place.

    We will get into NAM window in next couple days so we will have a better idea. But for now this is what we have model-wise.

    GFS:
    Start of storm: Freezing rain and sleet just NW of I-44 corridor. Snow in NW OK.
    End of storm: Snow all of I-44 corridor and points N.

    Canadian & GEM:
    Start of storm: Freezing rain over I-44 corridor for prolonged period, potential major icestorm scenario. Snow in NW OK.
    End of storm: Snow all of I-44 corridor and points N.


    Will keep updating as we get into additional forecast model windows and obviously the less time gap before the event - the more accurate things will be painted.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    12,689
    Blog Entries
    3

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Story of the damages from tornado in eastern Oklahoma during Friday night with drone video.

    https://ktul.com/news/local/severe-s...stern-oklahoma

  16. #16

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Ha, go figure, we're coming back for a wedding this weekend. I'm sure we'll have to endure many "you guys brought this with you from Minnesota" jokes

    Flying in Thursday night, outdoor wedding planned for Saturday afternoon....yay

  17. #17

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Outdoor wedding in the first week of December? Okay... Was it like free? haha

    Tonight's model data is showing trend toward warmer temperatures at beginning of storm meaning more of a cold rain solution, then followed up by wrap-around snow on Saturday.

  18. #18

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Yeah a little ambitious right?

  19. #19
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    12,689
    Blog Entries
    3

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    See Euro vs US GFS below.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    12,689
    Blog Entries
    3

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Euro vs US GFS




  21. #21

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    First glimpses into the NAM do not paint a pretty picture. Major winterstorm per NAM. Whilst the GFS is backing off.

    Will have more tomorrow when we have full storm data.

  22. #22

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    First glimpses into the NAM do not paint a pretty picture. Major winterstorm per NAM. Whilst the GFS is backing off.

    Will have more tomorrow when we have full storm data.
    Which models are the best to look at for winter weather?

  23. #23

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by sooner333 View Post
    Which models are the best to look at for winter weather?
    I think the NAM is often used for shorter term forecasting? I know the window that forecast models come out is a lot smaller.

  24. #24

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    There is only a few long-range models that are commonly used in forecasting. However, once you get into the 24-72 hour window of an event you are forecasting, there is a lot of models that are viable. Obviously, the closer you are to an event - the more confident the forecast. Since this storm is very large, it will be a multi-day event, so the entire storm is not in short-range models' view until very close to the start of the event.

    By lunchtime Wednesday we will have a full-storm length picture of the storm in the NAM window and we will be able to begin fine-tuning Wednesday night into Thursday using a conglomerate of all of the model data and excluding anomalies.

    As of tonight, the NAM is full doomsday
    GFS seems out to lunch on temperatures, but more realistic on QPF.
    Canadian and GEM are sort of in-between the above.

  25. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Obviously the official interpretation will come from Anon, but it seems both the latest GFS and the NAM are backing off the worst Friday daytime predictions and pushing the worst of this as an overnight Friday/Saturday daytime event.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. General Weather Discussion - May 2018
    By Anonymous. in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 140
    Last Post: 05-31-2018, 02:43 AM
  2. General Weather Discussion - December 2017
    By Anonymous. in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 76
    Last Post: 01-03-2018, 11:30 AM
  3. General Weather Discussion - December 2016
    By Anonymous. in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 81
    Last Post: 12-30-2016, 08:00 AM
  4. General Weather Discussion - December, 2015
    By Anonymous. in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 216
    Last Post: 12-31-2015, 04:30 AM
  5. General Weather Discussion - December 2014
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 114
    Last Post: 12-29-2014, 12:41 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO