General Weather Discussion - December 2018

[okatty]

Hmmm.

Talking about the TV guys, not here. The hype machine was in full force.

[Pete]

It's important to keep in mind that in OKC weather is the biggest driver in TV news ratings.

And the ratings are particularly good when severe weather is in the forecast.

[MadMonk]

Fact. I was touched in a bad place by a meteorologist who convinced me to adult this week by making sure my cars were winter ready, and to get my shopping done 2 days early. I say we burn them all.

You need dire weather predictions to do something most people already do without fear of an icy death?

[jerrywall]

You need dire weather predictions to do something most people already do without fear of an icy death?

Sometimes. And if you think most people do this type of stuff, I'd love what you're smoking.

Either way, the worst harm of this being getting people to prepare and be weather aware? I'm ok with that.

[Anonymous.]

Hmmm.

I think this is why you quoted me, not 100% sure, but it sounds like post #98 is referencing my posts leading up to this storm as hype. I really hope that the stuff I post is not being taken that way. As I have mentioned many times in these threads, there is no added [monetary or otherwise] benefit to me or OKCTalk when it comes to the information I post in these threads.

Since you quoted various posts of mine from the last 10 days as being not level-headed, I noticed you left off post #39 - the post I made about 20 minutes after the data became available that the storm track was shifting dramatically south and this would be important for the entire forecast moving forward. Also your own posts after this make it appear you understand the data that was being used to forecast the storm was suddenly changing. But now after the event you cherry-pick random posts of mine with zero context or timestamps and compare that to TV meteorologists that apparently wanted people to make milk sandwiches this weekend?

I want to make it clear that I only post the data and information available to anyone online. The data that the TV mets are using is the same model data that I am posting here. All they are doing is interpreting the data and using their own experiences whilst being a face or presenter of the forecast in a way that is eye-catching and entertaining. Arguments about them having ulterior motives for ratings/money may hold some water. But there is nothing like that here. Although I suppose you may think I am sitting in a big evil chair, tapping my fingers together while reading the weather thread, and basking in some weird ego boost.

[Bill Robertson]

Nobody got it wrong initially, nobody misinterpreted the forecast, all the models agreed that it was gonna be a major event.

That just isn’t really accurate. I watch the models at work since keeping a Federal Government aviation facility open and running is my responsibility. GFS and Canadian never showed this storm as being a really big deal. NAM did the first few runs of their window but backed off pretty quickly.

[okatty]

I think this is why you quoted me, not 100% sure, but it sounds like post #98 is referencing my posts leading up to this storm as hype. I really hope that the stuff I post is not being taken that way. As I have mentioned many times in these threads, there is no added [monetary or otherwise] benefit to me or OKCTalk when it comes to the information I post in these threads.

Since you quoted various posts of mine from the last 10 days as being not level-headed, I noticed you left off post #39 - the post I made about 20 minutes after the data became available that the storm track was shifting dramatically south and this would be important for the entire forecast moving forward. Also your own posts after this make it appear you understand the data that was being used to forecast the storm was suddenly changing. But now after the event you cherry-pick random posts of mine with zero context or timestamps and compare that to TV meteorologists that apparently wanted people to make milk sandwiches this weekend?

I want to make it clear that I only post the data and information available to anyone online. The data that the TV mets are using is the same model data that I am posting here. All they are doing is interpreting the data and using their own experiences whilst being a face or presenter of the forecast in a way that is eye-catching and entertaining. Arguments about them having ulterior motives for ratings/money may hold some water. But there is nothing like that here. Although I suppose you may think I am sitting in a big evil chair, tapping my fingers together while reading the weather thread, and basking in some weird ego boost.

You do an absolutely 100% great job of posting weather info on here. So I suggest we just get back to weather, and we can all have our opinions about the TV guys and their motivations. Thanks for the good info you put on this site!

[stile99]

I think this is why you quoted me, not 100% sure, but it sounds like post #98 is referencing my posts leading up to this storm as hype.

That is the 100% opposite of why I quoted you. I quoted you to demonstrate, as you have said several times but some aren't getting, that the models were predicting a big storm, and then at the last minute went south. I have absolutely not said or implied this was hype, it was in response to others claiming that reporting EXACTLY what you reported was hype.

Since you quoted various posts of mine from the last 10 days as being not level-headed, I noticed you left off post #39 - the post I made about 20 minutes after the data became available that the storm track was shifting dramatically south and this would be important for the entire forecast moving forward. Also your own posts after this make it appear you understand the data that was being used to forecast the storm was suddenly changing. But now after the event you cherry-pick random posts of mine with zero context or timestamps and compare that to TV meteorologists that apparently wanted people to make milk sandwiches this weekend?

Again, this was absolutely not my intent at all...as you point out, it's pretty obvious I agree with you. There was no need to quote post #39, as the intent was to show what was being said BEFORE the storm moved matched what the models said, not hype.

[Anonymous.]

My mistake. I definitely misinterpreted your post then. Sorry about that, sometimes the context of things can get lost here with the way quotes and such work on a message board.

[stile99]

My mistake. I definitely misinterpreted your post then. Sorry about that, sometimes the context of things can get lost here with the way quotes and such work on a message board.

No worries, I'll take the blame for not being more obvious.

[OKCbyTRANSFER]

From the days when Venture posted about the weather here and now Anon, I always find it informative. Most times this is the first place I come to check on weather. Thank you for that!

[Anonymous.]

Models bring in a clipper-type storm Thursday afternoon with absurdly strong winds. Right now the forecast is for cold rain, but a nudge lower will result in blowing wet snow.

[damonsmuz]

Here are my thoughts on this storm:
It appeared that the EURO and then the GFS (followed by the NAM) as well as a few runs of the GEM really locked on to a significant storm. The EURO locked on to it for several days and if you read the discussions from the NWS, even they hit the message hard that this was going to be a crazy storm and not to believe the milder output from the NAM. (If you don't know where the discussions are from the NWS then scroll down to the bottom of Normans page and you can read the archives)

By Weds Night, after the EURO 00z RUN, it was obvious that the storm was beginning to weaken and the TV stations seemed to note that.

What I don't get is why people are spewing so much hate at the Mets (both NWS and broadcast). They gave the public 48 hours notice that this storm was not going to be what the models said it would be earlier in the week. Even after the NWS pushed out the Winter Storm Watch.

So, my takeaway from this is why the hate when, for 2 days, it was said that this would be a much weaker system. No one seems to throw shade at the mets when they forecast rain totals and they're off by a .25"-.50" which is what this would be equivalent to when you looked at the moisture.

It seems that when it comes to snowfall, people take the heaviest snow report and then hang on to it for days even when the data is changing. When 1"-3" of snow is in the forecast, all people seem to see is the 3" an not the 1". So when 1" falls, people say it was a "bust" when clearly it wasn't.

As for the ratings: I talked to a sales person at one of the local stations and they talked about how much weather hurts them in the long run. TV sales is strictly 100% commission. And you are only paid when your spots run. So, if weather takes over your broadcast and the commercials don't run, then the sales team loses that money and the station loses money.

[Bill Robertson]

I don’t know where to easily verify this but Spinozi said this morning that he heard Aaron Tuttle say that OKC is pushing 2000 days without a 4 inch snowfall. Is this true?

[stile99]

I don’t know where to easily verify this but Spinozi said this morning that he heard Aaron Tuttle say that OKC is pushing 2000 days without a 4 inch snowfall. Is this true?

Pretty easy to debunk. March 4th 2015 was 1743 days ago. One may say that's "pushing 2000 days", but one may also say that's "eight and a half months off".

https://www.koco.com/article/daily-r...a-city/4302929

[SoonerDave]

Pretty easy to debunk. March 4th 2015 was 1743 days ago. One may say that's "pushing 2000 days", but one may also say that's "eight and a half months off".

https://www.koco.com/article/daily-r...a-city/4302929

Meh - the cold/snowy weather runs in cycles. I remember a time when I was a teenager that we had a few years with a fairly regular/reliable snow before Christmas, but as I recall it was just a bit too early to last all the way to Christmas. And the last few years, the snow just hasn't fallen...except maybe for that '09 blizzard LOL ...

[stile99]

My apologies, it appears I borrowed Aaron Tuttle's calculator. It was 1379 days. So a bit off, there. I'm guessing I made a typo on the year.

[BG918]

I look at the last decade compared to ones before it and there is definitely a shift happening in our climate. Pretty scary really how fast it has happened too.

[Anonymous.]

20-40mph north winds are coming into C OK right now. This will continue into the night and a cold rain will develop overhead this afternoon. Maybe some wet snow mixing in heading into dark, but nothing significant is expected.

Rain will develop along I-35 corridor and be stationary until slowly pushing east. The strong winds will be the main story.

[Ian Drake]

So going by previous forecast busts this rain will move out and the sun will shine and the temps will go up to 70 degrees.

[Of Sound Mind]

So going by previous forecast busts this rain will move out and the sun will shine and the temps will go up to 70 degrees.

So hilarious...

[catch22]

So going by previous forecast busts this rain will move out and the sun will shine and the temps will go up to 70 degrees.

Have you ever tried predicting the future?

[baralheia]

So going by previous forecast busts this rain will move out and the sun will shine and the temps will go up to 70 degrees.

Looks like your forecast was an epic and total bust. Didn't see the sun all day, picked up a little over an inch of rain, and the temperature didn't break 40 most of the day, just as the pros predicted. Score for the good guys!

For real though, that was a nice little drink for about 2/3 of the state.

[Outhunder]

Looks like your forecast was an epic and total bust. Didn't see the sun all day, picked up an inch and a half of rain, and the temperature didn't break 40 most of the day, just as the pros predicted. Score for the good guys!

The "Pros" and/or "the good guys" didn't predict anything. It's whatever the models say. In this case the models did a pretty good job.

[baralheia]

The "Pros" and/or "the good guys" didn't predict anything. It's whatever the models say. In this case the models did a pretty good job.

Yeah, you're 100% right, I was just being petty. He'd used similar phrases to describe the winter weather forecast bust from last week and it just rubbed me the wrong way. My bad.