General Weather Discussion - December 2018

[Anonymous.]

The winter storm is no longer a winter storm. It is now just a storm going through Texas. Little to no frozen precipitation will fall on the backside. The most that will fall is a couple of inches in SW OK, maybe a dusting to an inch in OKC.

The low was set to track along I-40, but is now going to track 30 miles south of the Red River. This track change occurred over about 12 hours on Thursday. I have never seen such an error, or abrupt change in a storm in that short of a period before, but I posted about it exactly when it happened on the page 2. We went from a massive snowstorm for northern half of OK, to now almost zero precipitation in the entire state.

[Bill Robertson]

I know that there are a lot os snow wishers but I cannot possibly be more happy about this storm tracking south!!! Sorry to all those who want snow.

[Of Sound Mind]

I know that there are a lot os snow wishers but I cannot possibly be more happy about this storm tracking south!!! Sorry to all those who want snow.

Ditto!

[Anonymous.]

Updated graphics. Little to no precipitation will fall in the entire state of OK. Winter Storm Watch cancelled and replaced with Winter Weather Advisory, but that may also get removed.

[Ian Drake]

Looks like a big ol warm up coming after this weekend. Hopefully no more fake news storms threats the rest of the winter. Would like to see some 70s before the end of the month and with the upswing in temps that might happen lol!

[iambecoming]

Television meteorologists are such a joke this time of year. Morgan still trying to cover all his bases by saying heavy snowfall is still possible.

[OKCRT]

Heavy snowfall is possible. It's also possible that hell freezes over. One can only hope.

[Ian Drake]

Mike needs to sucked into an F5 tornado and sucked far away into oblivion. Don't worry, like I said its going to warm up after this weekend. Why anyone would wish for snow is beyond me, move up north if you want winter weather.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR trying one last time for a narrow band of moderate to heavy snow. Still won't amount to much even if it does happens because it won't last long.

[OKCRT]

Storm needs to move north if you want something OKC.

[Bunty]

In ten years Morgan will be 65, so you may have to put up with him for at least that much longer.

Speaking of Morgan, he went from this:



To This:

[sayyes]

Oh well...maybe next year.

[Bunty]

Unless the back side takes a more northeasterly track, it look like OKC is in the clear for any more snow of what little there was. No snow or bitter cold in the forecast through Dec. 21.

"Today, I wanted to crawl in my bed and hide." KFOR meteorologist Emily Sutton.

[okatty]

^Emily also tweeted the “Bart Simpson walking back into the hedge” meme which I thought was funny. Good sport.

[OKCRT]

Oh what could have been.

[Bunty]

The snow wasn't a total bust for the southern Texas panhandle. Lubbock got 10".

[Bill Robertson]

^Emily also tweeted the “Bart Simpson walking back into the hedge” meme which I thought was funny. Good sport.

Emily has a sense of humor. Mike Morgan was on this morning still trying to promote horrible road conditions in the metro. Then he would go out to the chasers and try to get them to talk about how bad the roads were. They all said things were just wet if anything at all. Come on guy, just admit you missed this one. There will be others.

[Anonymous.]

I don't follow the local mets on TV. Did they even try and explain the models dramatically changing in a matter of half a day or did they try and slowly downgrade the storm instead of straight up say hey it isn't going to happen unless there is another dramatic shift the other way?

Honestly I cannot blame anyone Thursday morning saying a majority of the state could get a solid snowfall. All of the models pointed to that occurring, I am not sure what a forecaster is supposed to do in that situation. I suppose they could adjust the way they use percentages in their forecasts. I have noticed that the general public latches onto the idea of hour-by-hour forecasts with percentages of X happening. I find that very intriguing and I think the media should use that to their advantage.

Just a general theory, but I think the local meteorologists have associated percentages with severeness as opposed to the actual chance of something happening. For instance, on Thursday they say there is a 100% chance of heavy snow in the OKC metro on Saturday. Instead, perhaps it should be there is a 60% chance of a 3-6 inches of snow in the OKC metro on Saturday. This way it reads as a chance of a significant event, as opposed to the chance being the significance of the event. Then when Thursday afternoon happens and the models shift the track south by 80 miles, you can lower the chance of 3-6 inches of snow in the OKC metro to say 10%.

I don't know, I am just spit-balling here, but I think there is a lot of miscommunication that has been developed using somewhat dated ways to explain a forecast.

[Pete]

I watched Mike last night and he said things were shifting south but was still sounding the alarm that "significant snow" could hit OKC early this AM.

If you watched his broadcast there would be no other conclusion than he massively missed and stuck to his forecast after others had backed way off.

[stile99]

Fact: The entire week, every forecast (Including Mike's) has been "models are conflicting, we won't really know anything until Friday".

Fact: What was supposed to happen, still happened, it just went south, and since the cold air wasn't that far south, it fell as rain.

Fact: It's snowing in Mustang right now. I tried telling the snow that some internet wags said it wasn't going to happen, it started falling harder.

Fact: It's been hovering just above freezing all day. It's not inappropriate to remind people what happens, especially on bridges and overpasses, when the roads are wet and the temperature hovers around the freezing point.

Opinion: This isn't anywhere near like when Mike blatantly told people to drive into the path of a tornado. Up until just a few hours ago, the weather system (that again, every single model had a different opinion regarding) was heading here. Heading here was about the only thing everyone agreed upon.

[okatty]

Fact - the TV guys greatly over hyped and over sensationalized the weather this week. Luckily on OKC Talk we have Anon and others to keep us a little more level headed.

[jerrywall]

Fact. I was touched in a bad place by a meteorologist who convinced me to adult this week by making sure my cars were winter ready, and to get my shopping done 2 days early. I say we burn them all.

[stile99]

Fact - the TV guys greatly over hyped and over sensationalized the weather this week. Luckily on OKC Talk we have Anon and others to keep us a little more level headed.

Hmmm.

Going to go ahead and say preliminary Bread & Milk Watch for next weekend December 7th-ish. A storm will be in the area with iffy temperatures.

Classic southern plains winter storm still being picked up on by models. Temperatures and track will determine locations of impacts, but impacts do look to be significant wherever they take place.

We will get into NAM window in next couple days so we will have a better idea. But for now this is what we have model-wise.

GFS:
Start of storm: Freezing rain and sleet just NW of I-44 corridor. Snow in NW OK.
End of storm: Snow all of I-44 corridor and points N.

Canadian & GEM:
Start of storm: Freezing rain over I-44 corridor for prolonged period, potential major icestorm scenario. Snow in NW OK.
End of storm: Snow all of I-44 corridor and points N.


Will keep updating as we get into additional forecast model windows and obviously the less time gap before the event - the more accurate things will be painted.

First glimpses into the NAM do not paint a pretty picture. Major winterstorm per NAM. Whilst the GFS is backing off.

Will have more tomorrow when we have full storm data.

Since this storm is very large, it will be a multi-day event, so the entire storm is not in short-range models' view until very close to the start of the event.

As of tonight, the NAM is full doomsday

Here we go with the latest data. Right now the storm is taking a perfect track for impacting all of Oklahoma. The track will be very similar to the 2009 Christmas Eve storm that dropped record snowfall in C OK. Now most of that 2009 snow in C OK came in the low's deformation zone with heavy banding - something nearly impossible to predict or place. I am not claiming this storm will dump record snowfall, but the track will be very close.

[d-usa]

And as soon as the models changed, he updated us the new paths and changes in the forecast.

Nobody got it wrong initially, nobody misinterpreted the forecast, all the models agreed that it was gonna be a major event.

Then the models changed unexpectedly, and some folks updated their forecasts to reflect the change while others tried to stick to their initial forecast for whatever reason.

[Outhunder]

No one knows anymore than anyone else. It's whatever the models say. But that doesn't keep the tv guys and gals from wanting to think think they know more. So glad we had that state of emergency in place. Wow. What a cluster.