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  1. #51

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Outhunder View Post
    State of emergency declared for all 77 counties. Sure seems to be a bit premature.

    https://www.koco.com/article/state-o...storm/25426173
    I'd think that in a state that experiences it's fair share of severe weather, more would understand that the reason these "state of emergencies" are declared are to get the process rolling in case of disaster.

  2. #52

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by bradh View Post
    I'd think that in a state that experiences it's fair share of severe weather, more would understand that the reason these "state of emergencies" are declared are to get the process rolling in case of disaster.
    Right, it has nothing to do with an actual state of emergency as reality--it's a technical term in this usage. As I understand it, it is simply all about officially qualifying a situation for government funds to help with whatever the needs are related to this storm.

  3. #53

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by stile99 View Post
    Not to people who know what ice on roads means. Really, I don't understand this rush to discount it. Nobody I know is agreeing with it. These other sites that are declaring it a dud, when as mentioned the models have been in flux the entire time and everyone (despite the claim that it's all for ratings) has said so from the very beginning...what are their qualifications?

    We obviously need to address the science education we're offering in public schools. The fact that some people in the state of Oklahoma can't recognize the value of preparation before a storm...I just can't accept that.
    Stick with Anon's discussion about it here and of course try this site...no hype, just the best shot at forecasting by the best folks in the business https://www.weather.gov/oun/

  4. #54

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    18Z NAM is loaded in. Continued the trend from this morning in pushing the track further south. This alteration in track is resulting in a less "deep" storm and the upper level low not pulling down the cold air it was forecast to do earlier. Currently our storm is just coming onshore over Los Angeles and is moving very slow.

    I will update tonight with graphics as we will have some very high-def short range models to view and we will see where we are trending. But for now less ice (almost none), less snow, and a track of the heaviest snow further south.

    Freezing drizzle and rain patches are possible heading into dark Friday night, but at this point - the bulk of heavier precipitation will take place after 3am.

  5. #55

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    18Z NAM is loaded in. Continued the trend from this morning in pushing the track further south. This alteration in track is resulting in a less "deep" storm and the upper level low not pulling down the cold air it was forecast to do earlier. Currently our storm is just coming onshore over Los Angeles and is moving very slow.

    I will update tonight with graphics as we will have some very high-def short range models to view and we will see where we are trending. But for now less ice (almost none), less snow, and a track of the heaviest snow further south.

    Freezing drizzle and rain patches are possible heading into dark Friday night, but at this point - the bulk of heavier precipitation will take place after 3am.
    The weather forecasters and tv people are praying to god at this point. If we see 2 inches they might be able to save themselves.

  6. #56

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    General populace: 1. Weather hype machine: 0. Score for the good guys!!

  7. #57

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Kinda hoping for a foot of snow in OKC.

  8. #58

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    So with this colossal forecast bust, what are the real conditions for Saturday going to be Anon? 60 and sunny? That's what I'll call it. I am so thankful that I did not contribute to the milk and bread profiteering scheme currently going on.

  9. #59

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    I haven't really noticed meteorologist freaking over this event. Its not their fault the herd has access to information 24/7 and freak out 5 days before an event happens (They do their job and give an analysis on models and they get called fear mongers, go figure. Don't know how long it will take people to realize that you can't forecast any significant weather events that far into the future. F5 tornadoes, historic ice and wind storms, CAT 5 hurricanes, damaging straight line events are outliers and conditions have to be just right to occur. There still is a decent amount of snow forecast for Saturday, nothing historic.

    Maybe its time for people to stop watching extended forecasts if they don't understand the science/art behind forecasting.

  10. #60
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    ^I don’t disagree with much of this, but they were absolutely freaking out early in the week, comparing it to the 2009 Xmas storm, etc. They get some hype blame.

  11. #61

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Shift is continued south. I don't think I have ever seen this dramatic of a change in 12 hours before. At this rate, precipitation may not even fall in the entire state. the NAM still wants to develop some snow along I-44 corridor, but it is nothing compared to what was forecast for the entire state just this morning. The track has shifted so far south that E/SE OK may actually have the best shot @ winter precipitation. Ice accumulation will be little to zero anywhere in the state as of now.

    I will continue to update tomorrow obviously, but this is unraveling pretty amazingly.

    This is the model's last hold before basically making this a cold rain event for extreme SE OK.




    And here is the generous snowfall amounts from trying to develop some backside snow, but that looks like it may get choked off too.












  12. #62

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Yeah!!!! This is awesome! Epic bust in the making! I would be especially grateful if Mike "Drive South" Morgan would lose his job over this!!! Probably won't happen, but one can dream!

  13. #63

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Drake View Post
    Yeah!!!! This is awesome! Epic bust in the making! I would be especially grateful if Mike "Drive South" Morgan would lose his job over this!!! Probably won't happen, but one can dream!
    If I give you the attention you desperately need will you please stop with this?

  14. #64

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    sorry, but Mike reigned it in today... starting at his 1800 broadcast...

  15. #65

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    Maybe its time for people to stop watching extended forecasts if they don't understand the science/art behind forecasting.
    Quoting just because it's worth repeating.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rixon75 View Post
    If I give you the attention you desperately need will you please stop with this?
    I think it usually works the other way with trolls, not feeding them is what makes them wander off when they get bored. The intelligent people can be happy that a very real disaster was averted, while understanding that everything is going exactly as predicted, while the ignorant are free to believe whatever they want...who cares what they think? Let them wear their ignorance as a badge. Badge of honor to them, badge of warning to others.

  16. #66

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    I am reveling in the schadenfreude of those who were hoping for disaster based on those early forecasts which any intelligent person knows are not correct as we have seen time and time before. Yes, ignorance does shine...

  17. #67

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    All advisories have been cancelled except for a very localized area. NWS maintaining Winter Storm Watch (soon Warning) for a select few counties along I-44 from SW OK into C OK.

    This seems to be based on HRRR interpretation of some heavy snow bands developing over an extremely narrow corridor early Saturday morning.


  18. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    When looking at these forecasts, How do I decipher when it is for? I see the forecast hour but what is the number after that? I see the date but there is no time unless the 22z is the time. Does that correspond to military time meaning 2200 hours?

  19. #69

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeepnokc View Post
    When looking at these forecasts, How do I decipher when it is for? I see the forecast hour but what is the number after that? I see the date but there is no time unless the 22z is the time. Does that correspond to military time meaning 2200 hours?
    Z is for Zulu or UTC (Universal Time Coordinated) It is 6 hours ahead of us. So 22Z is 2200 Zulu/UTC time which is 4:00pm here.

  20. #70

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Yes that is correct, Zulu time.

    Keep in mind, that the time in that latest graphic is showing snowfall up to that point, not when snowfall is occurring. So basically that map says by 4:00pm CST, this is what has fallen. I chose that time because that is when most/all snow will be over in Oklahoma.

  21. #71

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    I hope we at least get a couple of inches in Moore. Was looking forward to taking the kiddo out in the snow.

  22. #72
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Drake View Post
    Yeah!!!! This is awesome! Epic bust in the making! I would be especially grateful if Mike "Drive South" Morgan would lose his job over this!!! Probably won't happen, but one can dream!
    In ten years Morgan will be 65, so you may have to put up with him for at least that much longer.

  23. #73

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by sayyes View Post
    I hope we at least get a couple of inches in Moore. Was looking forward to taking the kiddo out in the snow.
    I think you might get your wish and then some.

  24. #74

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    So....Im erasing all this pre chatter about the storm.. What I gathered was at one point, we (OKC) were possibly going to get ice, starting around 4pm followed by a ridiculous amount of snow overnight and mostly Saturday.

    Now, in short.... correct me... Storm starts later, less or no ice, and a little snow and not ALL day Saturday.

    So basically, the forecast for a winter storm is there but not anymore of a storm than we had like in November. Not a 2009 event. Or is there a "but a temp change or storm course change could erase everything" caveat still in play?

  25. #75

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by NikonNurse View Post
    So basically, the forecast for a winter storm is there but not anymore of a storm than we had like in November. Not a 2009 event. Or is there a "but a temp change or storm course change could erase everything" caveat still in play?
    There's still some forecast uncertainty, but I think the chances of a significant change are rapidly dwindling...

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