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  1. #26

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by SoonerDave View Post
    Obviously the official interpretation will come from Anon, but it seems both the latest GFS and the NAM are backing off the worst Friday daytime predictions and pushing the worst of this as an overnight Friday/Saturday daytime event.
    Sure seems that way. Still pretty amazing differences between the 12Z NAM, which paints an inch of ice from ~Lawton to Purcell and up to a foot of snow in OKC) and the GFS, which still shows rain as of Saturday afternoon through OKC with just a brief blip of snow on the back end. Oy.

  2. #27

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    I'm traveling to Texas Friday morning and coming back sometime on Saturday. I need this storm to have as little impact as possible. I'm counting on you, Anonymous.

  3. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Ginkasa View Post
    I'm traveling to Texas Friday morning and coming back sometime on Saturday. I need this storm to have as little impact as possible. I'm counting on you, Anonymous.
    I'd say stop just south of the Arbuckles to be safe.

  4. #29
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Ginkasa View Post
    I'm traveling to Texas Friday morning and coming back sometime on Saturday. I need this storm to have as little impact as possible. I'm counting on you, Anonymous.
    My son is doing just the opposite - Dallas to OKC Friday after work. Hmmmmmm. Appreciate the good info here.

  5. #30
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    WINTER STORM WATCH

    Areas Affected:
    Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Jackson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Wash ita - Woods - Woodward
    Effective: Fri, 12/7 6:00am Updated: Wed, 12/5 2:10pm Urgency: Future
    Expires: Sun, 12/9 12:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

    Details:

    ...Winter Storm Expected Friday morning through Saturday
    Evening...
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
    THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
    * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
    accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of
    at least 6 inches. Ice accumulations up to three tenths of an
    inch are possible.
    * WHERE...The heavier snow accumulations will mainly be across
    northern and western Oklahoma. The heavier ice accumulations
    are expected to extend from southwest Oklahoma into central
    Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City.
    * WHEN...From Friday late morning through Saturday evening.
    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
    across portions of the area due to the ice. Road conditions will
    vary across Oklahoma and western north Texas, depending on
    ground temperatures and the rate of accumulation of snow and
    ice. Ice may accumulate on bridges and overpasses, even where
    main roads do not freeze.

    Information:
    A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
    snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
    to monitor the latest forecasts.

    Counties covered in blue:


  6. #31

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    I'm scared.

  7. #32

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by sacolton View Post
    I'm scared.
    There's no reason to be scared. Mike Morgan said it won't hit until late afternoon Friday, if you have morning plans, no need to cancel them.

    Which, of course, means it hits the fan tomorrow.

  8. #33

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Here we go with the latest data. Right now the storm is taking a perfect track for impacting all of Oklahoma. The track will be very similar to the 2009 Christmas Eve storm that dropped record snowfall in C OK. Now most of that 2009 snow in C OK came in the low's deformation zone with heavy banding - something nearly impossible to predict or place. I am not claiming this storm will dump record snowfall, but the track will be very close.

    Right now we have several models to look at for this forecast, even more will be available by Thursday evening. Before we see graphics, I want to try and explain that the ending result is likely a combination of these models, and not one specific one. As always, forecasting ice and snow in OK is Russian Roulette with the freezing temperature line. Any variance in a handful of degrees completely changes the outcome. So this will be a nowcast type of event for Friday into Saturday. I want to point out the potential for a warm nose to form somewhere across southern Oklahoma of warm air at the surface pushing north with the counter-clockwise spin of the storm. This warm nose could push over an area and extend 10-20 miles more than forecast and end up busting a forecast for wherever it ends up. Right now, the warm nose could very well push into C OK and result in a winter storm for northern sides of OKC while the southern sides see cold rain and a dusting of snow. We will have to monitor the situation as it arises.


    First up we have GFS: This model is the least bread & milk out of all the models. Forecast is for freezing rain and sleet to develop by afternoon Friday across W and NW OK. Some of this reaching toward C OK, but temperatures too warm for any major impacts. Best chance for ice accumulation is just NW of OKC area and back along I-40 to the west. Eventually the cold air comes in with the wrap around of the system during the day Saturday and squeezes out some light snow amounts mostly over NW and N OK, dusting in C OK. This model has consistently had the warmest temperatures and lowest QPF totals of any of them. Potential for it being an outlier is moderate to high.




    Next up we have NAM. This is literally the opposite of the GFS, in that it is full bread and milk warning and paints a historic storm. Like I mentioned earlier, the track NAM gives is very similar to 2009's Christmas Eve. However, this one is forecast to dump ice before heavy snow. NAM gets things started later than GFS, putting freezing drizzle and rain in NW OK by nightfall Friday. Then precipitation picks up across NW TX and all of SW OK and moves into the body of the state. Depending on temperatures and the 32F line, a very narrow corridor of heavy icing is possible somewhere in line with I-44. Exact positioning is too difficult to pinpoint, but the current forecast puts up to half an inch of ice along I-44 including all of OKC. After icing over all of Friday night and Saturday morning, heavy snow is transitioned into the state by sunrise and amounts ranging from 4-12" are forecast for essentially south of I-44 and points north (heaviest north). The snow gradient will likely be dramatic in that just 2-5 miles could separate little to no snow, and over 6". It all depends on temperatures. Snow ends overnight Saturday.

    I am using a non 10:1 snow to liquid ratio map due to the traditional 10:1 map being grossly over-exaggerated, this map is more in line with likely reality.



    Here is the Canadian, which is sort of in between the two above solutions, but sides with lower QPF potential. This model's scenario is nearly identical to the NAM, except all amounts are about 1/3 of what the NAM is forecasting.


  9. #34
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Thanks. Here is OKC meteorologist Aaron Tuttle's take on the weather situation: https://aarontuttleweather.com/2018/...d-snow-totals/

  10. #35

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    welp, the wedding has obviously been moved inside Saturday night now. Now my wife is questioning if our flight back home on Sunday will happen (weather Sunday will be fine but who knows what inbound flights will look like Saturday).

  11. #36

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    We're also heading to Texas Friday afternoon and were supposed to head back Saturday evening, told the wife we probably need to find a hotel till Sunday just to be on the safe side.

  12. #37

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    NAM is doubling down tonight. Rushing colder air aloft in faster than previous runs. Bringing in heavy snow for all of I-44 corridor and points north, sliding the ice threat slightly south of I-44 and backing off some in amount. Some of the snow totals are insanity. Will wait for morning runs to see if this trend continues leading to up to the event. GFS is also ramping back up some on tonight's run.

  13. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Anin, could you clarify when this supposed to roll in? Are you talking about Friday or Saturday. The NAM and GFS runs I've been reading seem to show less of a precip risk for Friday, but bigger probability on Sat. Is that what you're seeing?

  14. #39

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    SoonerDave, Friday evening is when things have the best chance to get hairy. But depending on temperatures, we may not get to freezing temps until well after dark in OKC. We are talking just 2-6 degrees changing everything with this forecast. This is why winter storms in OK are very frustrating to forecast, science just isn't good enough yet for such a small variance in air temperatures.


    Models this morning have undergone dramatic shift south with the track. Will watch this afternoon for trend. The track has been the most consistent item among all models thus far. The track will determine everything about this storm, so this shift is important to watch.


    This is the NAM 12 hours ago:


    This is the NAM now:

  15. #40

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Anon, I just want to jump in and say you're an absolute champion. I hope you never feel unappreciated for these posts because they are very much so. Speaking for myself, of course, but I'm sure this is true for many of us.

  16. #41

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    That's a pretty drastic shift

  17. #42

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Ginkasa View Post
    Anon, I just want to jump in and say you're an absolute champion. I hope you never feel unappreciated for these posts because they are very much so. Speaking for myself, of course, but I'm sure this is true for many of us.
    No problem. I enjoy posting information that others find useful. There are no Facebook likes, advertisements clicks, or news channel hours to bait for here. Just raw data and some help to interpret it.

    We are getting into a lot of high-def short-range models' windows this evening, so we will have our best information yet at our disposal tonight and tomorrow morning.

  18. #43

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    ^ Another hearty thank you from me.

    If the current models/patterns hold does it mean less ice and more snow and the storm happening Saturday day/afternoon instead of Friday evening/Saturday morning?

  19. #44

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    So per above, no snow or ice in OKC, just cold rain? Please let it be so. Model busts are good. I am not prepared for ice.

  20. #45

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    From what I've seen on other sites, this is setting up to be a dud of a storm.

  21. #46

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Pffft. Figures. Another hyped up storm for ratings.

  22. #47

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by sacolton View Post
    Pffft. Figures. Another hyped up storm for ratings.
    Or things are evolving as we get closer to the event and our best available evidence, which we use to prepare people, is indicating less severe impacts? The emphasis in messaging has always been on the remaining uncertainty with this event due to the marginal nature of the temperatures. If people were merely concerned with hyping for ratings, they would have run with the models that have showed feet of snow for OKC, but instead (at least in the case of reputable sources like the NWS) maintained a consistent forecast for a few inches.

  23. #48

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by sacolton View Post
    Pffft. Figures. Another hyped up storm for ratings.
    You saw how the model changed in only a matter of hours, right?

  24. #49

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    State of emergency declared for all 77 counties. Sure seems to be a bit premature.

    https://www.koco.com/article/state-o...storm/25426173

  25. #50

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - December 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Outhunder View Post
    State of emergency declared for all 77 counties. Sure seems to be a bit premature.
    Not to people who know what ice on roads means. Really, I don't understand this rush to discount it. Nobody I know is agreeing with it. These other sites that are declaring it a dud, when as mentioned the models have been in flux the entire time and everyone (despite the claim that it's all for ratings) has said so from the very beginning...what are their qualifications?

    We obviously need to address the science education we're offering in public schools. The fact that some people in the state of Oklahoma can't recognize the value of preparation before a storm...I just can't accept that.

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