General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

[SEMIweather]

Big time cold front about to move through the Metro. As of 2:30, the wind chill was 58 at the Yukon Mesonet site and 39 at the El Reno Mesonet site, so conditions will change quickly.

[OKCisOK4me]

It’s a weird feeling to have a day in the 30’s and 40’s and still be needing to mow my yard. If only it’d dry out a tad.

Next weekend looks pretty good for that. I need to do the same as well!

[Anonymous.]

Slight chance of rain tonight, mostly coming up from dying showers coming out of NW TX. This disturbance will gain steam as we head through Thursday and then as we head into Thursday evening, rain will spread across the state from SW to NE into Friday morning hours.

This will all clear out by Friday evening and should give us a stellar Saturday with highs in the upper 60s with virtually zero wind. It will be a great weekend for outdoor activity.

[Bunty]

Tornadoes have been shifting east. But are decreasing in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, while spinning up more in states along the Mississippi River and farther east. Scientists aren't sure why but do suspect global warming. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...udy-finds.html

[mugofbeer]

Tornadoes east of OK happen far more frequently at night than in OK. l suspect a lot of this may have to do with radar and digital technology that spots nighttime tornadoes when human eyes don't see them, as well as digital recording technology that let's tornadoes be paired with damage zones after-the-fact. As for decreases in the plains? ld like to see a lot more years data with modern technology.

[SoonerDave]

Tornadoes have been shifting east. But are decreasing in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, while spinning up more in states along the Mississippi River and farther east. Scientists aren't sure why but do suspect global warming. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...udy-finds.html

I believe it is a matter of meteorological history that tornado frequency tends to shift over time, from the traditional "tornado alley" , then to the NE/E, then back south, and to it's "traditional" home here in the midwest. I do not have empirical data at hand to back that up, but I do believe that the shift is actually part of a normal atmospheric pattern, not really "caused" by anything.

[d-usa]

Should it be safe to winterize my sprinkler system for the year?

[BG918]

I believe it is a matter of meteorological history that tornado frequency tends to shift over time, from the traditional "tornado alley" , then to the NE/E, then back south, and to it's "traditional" home here in the midwest. I do not have empirical data at hand to back that up, but I do believe that the shift is actually part of a normal atmospheric pattern, not really "caused" by anything.

It is also likely tied to areas that have been plagued by drought like the TX/OK panhandles and western OK/KS/NE. These are areas that are vulnerable to increased desertification if trends continue.

[bchris02]

Tornadoes have been shifting east. But are decreasing in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, while spinning up more in states along the Mississippi River and farther east. Scientists aren't sure why but do suspect global warming. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...udy-finds.html

Looking at records, Oklahoma's spring tornado season was notably quieter prior to 1999. The total number of tornadoes is trending upwards in the state slightly but the month of May has experienced a pronounced increase in activity over the past two decades. I am certain this is partially because current technology is better at detecting weak tornadoes but is that the entire explanation?

[SEMIweather]

Appears to be our first relatively quiet period in a while coming up. Wednesday looks to be our only real rain chance in the next week, and even that event seems to be trending drier.

[Ian Drake]

Weather channel calls for 90% rain on Wed, but we all know how accurate they are so it really sounds like we are entering a period of fall like sunny weather for at least a few weeks that we so desperately need. It should stay that way till next summer, no rain or cold all winter long would be amazing. Climate prediction center says warmer winter anyway. so I am on board with that.

[BG918]

The GFS had been hinting at a large storm over the Plains around Halloween but has backed off the last few runs.

[SEMIweather]

Weather channel calls for 90% rain on Wed, but we all know how accurate they are so it really sounds like we are entering a period of fall like sunny weather for at least a few weeks that we so desperately need. It should stay that way till next summer, no rain or cold all winter long would be amazing. Climate prediction center says warmer winter anyway. so I am on board with that.

I mean. I'd personally prefer a weather pattern that doesn't have us getting 4.46" of precipitation in a six month period followed by 35.67" over the next six months, which is what's happened here over the past year. I get that this state will always be drier from mid-October to mid-March, and wetter during the seven months in between (with the exception of July and August if the ridge is overhead), but this past year has been ridiculous in that regard.

[bucktalk]

I wonder if this winter will be as wet as this fall as been? I saw long range forecast somewhere that seem to indicate a warmer winter but don't know about how wet it'll be. My wife wants tons and tons of snow. Wonder if she'll get what she's wishing for. What will this winter give us????

[Anonymous.]

As others have mentioned above, beautiful weather, save for Wednesday afternoon where we will likely see light to moderate rain move across the state. Nothing too exciting, just another piece of dying tropical systems.

Next big action looks to be around Halloween timeframe with potential for severe weather.

[Anonymous.]

Large area of general light rain with pockets of moderate showers is spreading into the state now. The only impact expected will be things getting wet.

This will likely lead to a cloudy first half of Thursday, but set us up for a beautiful weekend with sunshine, highs in the 70s, and minimal winds.

[Ian Drake]

I see 80’s for Saturday!! Keep that warmth and sunshine coming!

[Sharona21]

Great news, Anonymous and Ian. Thank you.

[SEMIweather]

Saturday will be gorgeous, Sunday could be rather brisk as a cold front passes through with strong northerly winds behind it. Highs in the mid 60's but it will likely feel colder.

[Ian Drake]

I predict that the forecasted temperature is off by 7 degrees... I think it will be 86 or 87 degrees for tomorrow. I wish that to roll right on through all of Nov.

[jonny d]

I predict that the forecasted temperature is off by 7 degrees... I think it will be 86 or 87 degrees for tomorrow. I wish that to roll right on through all of Nov.

Nah, I would prefer not to risk catching the whole state of OK on fire with a deep breath.

[Ian Drake]

It looks like we will have 80 degree plus temps all week next week! That makes me happy!

[pw405]

It looks like we will have 80 degree plus temps all week next week! That makes me happy!

[Bunty]

Better enjoy it when there is decent fall weather in Oklahoma.

[Anonymous.]

Perfect weather until Wednesday. Unfortunately for Halloween, it will likely be cold, windy, and some drizzle/showers. Another shot of cold air may come down on Friday, but we warmup quickly after that into the following week.