General Weather Discussion - April 2018

[John1744]

Mike Morgan is predicting another freeze Friday morning and has removed precipitation chances for this weekend. However, he has a 70% chance of rain next Tuesday.

Wow, David Payne said 100% chance of state wide drenching rain Saturday. Weird they'd both be so different.

[Anonymous.]

I think he misheard it or something. There is no chance, as every single model paints decent rain over a large area of the state. And there isn't even a large storm in the area on Tuesday.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Damon Lane on 5 said the state would get a soaking this weekend. Not a moment too soon for the firefighters.

[Anonymous.]

I think he misheard it or something. There is no chance, as every single model paints decent rain over a large area of the state. And there isn't even a large storm in the area on Tuesday.

Found this:

[Roger S]

I can guarantee it's going to rain this weekend.... It's rained on this weekend every year I've judged the KCBS BBQ Cook-off in Enid and that's this weekend.... This cook-off is the Arts Festival equivalent for Northern Oklahoma.

[Anonymous.]

[FighttheGoodFight]

I can guarantee it's going to rain this weekend.... It's rained on this weekend every year I've judged the KCBS BBQ Cook-off in Enid and that's this weekend.... This cook-off is the Arts Festival equivalent for Northern Oklahoma.

BBQ knows weather!

[Ian Drake]

What about severe weather? Does that come with the chance of rain? I really hope we don’t have any more severe chances this year. This OK weather stuff really stresses me out.

[u50254082]

What about severe weather? Does that come with the chance of rain? I really hope we don’t have any more severe chances this year. This OK weather stuff really stresses me out.

Totally unscientific but the only time you need to worry is when it's really bright and sunny before it gets really dark and stormy. The contrast seems to be what brews massive storms.

So if the morning is dreary and wet, with chances of storms... I've generally seen that as a sign of safety.

[bchris02]

Totally unscientific but the only time you need to worry is when it's really bright and sunny before it gets really dark and stormy. The contrast seems to be what brews massive storms.

So if the morning is dreary and wet, with chances of storms... I've generally seen that as a sign of safety.

Actually you are not far off. Sunshine during the day adds fuel to the atmosphere which can encourage supercell development in the late afternoon/evening. That's why whenever we have a high-end setup, there is always that hope that morning cloud cover will stick around as long as possible.

As for storm season, April has been unusually quiet this year because of lack of moisture combined with the lingering winter.

[Anonymous.]

The drought has a strangle-hold on everything from just west of C OK all the way back into Arizona. On any random day, just check out Mesonet's dewpoint map. You can see what the dryness does to the moisture in the air. Eastern OK is nearly tropical with Western OK a dust storm.

On long-range models there are indications of potential jet stream pattern switching it up a bit heading into May. This would help increase rain/storm chances further west.

[jn1780]

Actually you are not far off. Sunshine during the day adds fuel to the atmosphere which can encourage supercell development in the late afternoon/evening. That's why whenever we have a high-end setup, there is always that hope that morning cloud cover will stick around as long as possible.

As for storm season, April has been unusually quiet this year because of lack of moisture combined with the lingering winter.

Basically what's happening is that cold fronts are being shot way down south do to this pattern were in. That strips the gulf of any moisture.

[Anonymous.]

System still on track for this weekend, but looking like lighter amounts the last few runs. Surprising...no one.

[Bunty]

What about severe weather? Does that come with the chance of rain? I really hope we don’t have any more severe chances this year. This OK weather stuff really stresses me out.

I gather you don't have a storm shelter.

[catcherinthewry]

I gather you don't have a storm shelter.

Not everyone can afford to own a storm shelter. I bet it is a fairly small percentage that has access to a storm shelter in the OKC MSA.

[Anonymous.]

Nice rainfall for a lot of the state over the weekend. We have another solid chance @ some light rain Tuesday into Wednesday this week. Temperature everyday near 70F.

This coming weekend looks like we will FINALLY have a nice weekend in what seems like a month and a half.

Looking long-range. There is a strong storm showing up around May 1-4. I would not be surprised to see SPC put out some severe markers across the plains in the 4-8 outlook in the next few days.

[LakeEffect]

This coming weekend looks like we will FINALLY have a nice weekend in what seems like a month and a half.

Festival of the Arts and the Memorial Marathon coming up! Perfect.

[jn1780]

Nice rainfall for a lot of the state over the weekend. We have another solid chance @ some light rain Tuesday into Wednesday this week. Temperature everyday near 70F.

This coming weekend looks like we will FINALLY have a nice weekend in what seems like a month and a half.

Looking long-range. There is a strong storm showing up around May 1-4. I would not be surprised to see SPC put out some severe markers across the plains in the 4-8 outlook in the next few days.

Looks like spring is finally here to stay after the two shots of cold air this week. Here's hoping mother nature doesn't try to make up for lost time on the severe weather front

[Bunty]

Looks like spring is finally here to stay after the two shots of cold air this week. Here's hoping mother nature doesn't try to make up for lost time on the severe weather front

Maybe this week, I'll have to turn on my cooling for the first time this year.

[d-usa]

So I've heard that if this keeps up, it would be the longest stretch without a tornado in a new year since we started to keep track?

[Dessert Fox]

So I've heard that if this keeps up, it would be the longest stretch without a tornado in a new year since we started to keep track?

Yup. Since 1950 anyway. Here's a good resource regarding tornadoes every year since 1950 from the NWS:
https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadod...-monthlyannual

[Anonymous.]

Another great rain opportunity late tonight into tomorrow morning:

[Bobby821]

Looks like an active weather pattern setting up for next week May 1st and 2nd Severe weather likely.

[John1744]

Yep the word outbreak is getting used in very very hushed tones on a couple weather spotter forums. I'll believe it when I see it, it's still so far out.

But! It gave me an excuse to go clean out the cellar a bit ago.

[Bobby821]

At this point in time I DO NOT see this being an outbreak situation that can change we will have to wait and see as we get closer. Mainly wind and hail with a couple of tornadoes possible at this point in time so it is a low end to upper low end event at this point.