General Weather Discussion - February and March 2018

[Anonymous.]

Here is a snapshot of the HRRR showing the development of heavy freezing rain and sleet tomorrow afternoon. All models are insistent on this developing and the biggest impacts felt along I-35 corridor.

[Easy180]

Are we looking at low 30’s tomorrow afternoon around OKC? Every little bit helps on the main streets.

[Anonymous.]

Main precipitation will hit when temperatures forecast in C OK is near 30F.

If skies clear for part of tonight, then temperatures could begin the day much colder than anticipated. Warm air will be riding up from the south all night, so it will be combating the cold air @ the surface. This is why an icing scenario is extremely likely. As the day progresses, temperatures might actually reach 32 or higher - especially if the rain is heavy enough to warm the surface.

There is many factors in the various scenarios:

Heavier rain = rain causing the surface to warm (good - most things just wet and cold)
Moderate rain = rain causing surface to warm slightly (somewhat good - elevated object accumulate ice)
Light rain = no surface warming possible (bad - most things will accumulate ice)

And all scenarios above are also dependent on starting temperatures. Like I mentioned above, if we get clear skies tonight, the temperature could be 3-4 degrees colder than the forecast, which obviously means a worse scenario possible. If the low in the morning is closer to 20F than it is 30F, then things will be much worse - including ground temperatures likely @ freezing.

[judysue]

Norman Schools closed tomorrow.

[SoonerDave]

Moore as well.

[NikonNurse]

Piedmont

[corwin1968]

8:00 pm and still nothing from OKCPS.

[d-usa]

Putnam City Schools cancelled a few hours ago, and they usually always wait until early morning.

[Anonymous.]

Almost 11pm, First echos of today's precip are developing south of Midland/Odessa area. This will continue to fill in overnight.

Models tonight are trending toward heavier precipitation, which includes the forecast of warming the surface layer via rain. Skies are currently cloudy over C OK, which is helping to keep temperatures slightly propped up in the mid 20s. As long as it doesn't get too close to 20 or below, this is a trend in the right direction to have minimal impacts.

Will update in the morning.

Snapshot of heavy rain warming the surface over C OK:

[Anonymous.]

Okay so our starting temperatures are worst-case scenario. Basically all of C OK is between 19F and 21F. Enough warming will not occur as precipitation comes in. Highs in OKC may not break 28F. Ground temperatures have also plummeted overnight and everything exposed will likely become iced over. Bridges, trees, and powerlines will be most significant, but regular roads will also become slick. Especially since sleet is likely to be mixed in early on.


Businesses should highly consider sending workers home around lunchtime, 5pm will be complete chaos.

[hfry]

Thanks for all the great updates!

[OKCRT]

So anyone have a guess as to what time this will enter the metro area? Does this look like a major ice storm? Power outtages?

[Anonymous.]

Latest HRRR kills precipitation after the first initial wave with a huge slot of dry air over C OK, then redevelops drizzle and showers behind it into the night. Not sure I buy it, but it is something to watch for. Oklahoma winter storms always have this possibility of the infamous 'dryslot'.

[Anonymous.]

So anyone have a guess as to what time this will enter the metro area? Does this look like a major ice storm? Power outtages?

Precipitation should begin in OKC metro around 1-2pm. Widespread power outages seems unlikely at this time, IMO.

[OSUFan]

Latest HRRR kills precipitation after the first initial wave with a huge slot of dry air over C OK, then redevelops drizzle and showers behind it into the night. Not sure I buy it, but it is something to watch for. Oklahoma winter storms always have this possibility of the infamous 'dryslot'.

Would that scenario be good or bad for us dummies?

[Anonymous.]

Would that scenario be good or bad for us dummies?

Well the 3 hours before the dryslot, all of C OK is getting hit with heavy freezing rain and sleet, but the fact that it may get shut off early is a good thing.

[Anonymous.]

I am not sure if this image will stay as-is. But you can see the dryslot the models are trying to take into account in the yellow below:

[OKCRT]

Precipitation should begin in OKC metro around 1-2pm. Widespread power outages seems unlikely at this time, IMO.

Thanks,I always worry a little about power outages for the eldery folks that don't have family to help. Hopefully that dry slot moves out.

[Anonymous.]

Here is a snapshot of the freezing drizzle and rain pockets (The pink blobs) that develop behind this initial large precipitation bulb. This type of 'spotty' development can really do damage as it is usually lighter and allows time for freezing on contact.

[Anonymous.]

As you can see on radar, south central OK is getting the majority of the precipitation right now. This is across the same areas that got the most ice yesterday.

As I have mentioned above, redevelopment of drizzle and pockets of freezing rain behind this initial batch is possible into tonight.

[Anonymous.]

You can see on this map, the temperature increase over the last few hours from the heavy rain in south central OK. This is the scenario of the heavier precipitation causing warming @ the surface layer.

[Anonymous.]

Spotty drizzle and showers developing now across NW TX, this development zone will likely shift north and east into the night. Temperatures will slowly rise overnight.

Then another heavier batch will develop across NW TX that will impact SW and C OK Thursday morning, we will be very close to 32F by then, but impacts to the morning drive is still likely.

[tyeomans]

Is winter over yet?

[Anonymous.]

Thursday morning:

[OKCisOK4me]

Well luckily I'll be driving to work at 5:20am...