General Weather Discussion - December 2017

[Anonymous.]

Beautiful first weekend of December. Highs in the low 70s and sunshine.

High fire danger Monday with highs in the upper 70s ahead of a strong storm that will send cold air plunging down from the NW.

It appears it will be a dry, cold event for most of OK. Maybe some rain in extreme SE OK. Highs next week look like they will struggle to get out of the 40s.

[Anonymous.]

The next week looks pretty decent, but dry. 60s and 50s alternating pretty much every day for highs. Extreme fire danger is pretty much going to be an issue everyday until we get moisture.


2 weeks away from Christmas Day. I will start giving updates on general weather for that time period as we edge closer. Remember that trends is what you rely on, not any single run.

Currently, models indicate there will be an aggressive arctic blast across most of the US for Christmas. Including a large area receiving precipitation. At this time, OK weather for Christmas looks to be a high of about 25F with snow possible.

[FighttheGoodFight]

The next week looks pretty decent, but dry. 60s and 50s alternating pretty much every day for highs. Extreme fire danger is pretty much going to be an issue everyday until we get moisture.


2 weeks away from Christmas Day. I will start giving updates on general weather for that time period as we edge closer. Remember that trends is what you rely on, not any single run.

Currently, models indicate there will be an aggressive arctic blast across most of the US for Christmas. Including a large area receiving precipitation. At this time, OK weather for Christmas looks to be a high of about 25F with snow possible.

Incoming local news teasers for two weeks about a white christmas

[jn1780]

Incoming local news teasers for two weeks about a white christmas

Channel 4 started doing 11 day forecasts. You know because 7 days isn't enough.

[LakeEffect]

Channel 4 started doing 11 day forecasts. You know because 7 days isn't enough.

KOCO has been doing a 5+5 for a while now... it's not that unheard of.

[5alive]

^^^^^

[TheTravellers]

KOCO has been doing a 5+5 for a while now... it's not that unheard of.

I had heard that forecasts can't be *really* accurate more than about 5-7 days out, but maybe with new tech 10 day forecasts are accurate enough. I still don't trust more than 5 days out, though.

[LakeEffect]

I had heard that forecasts can't be *really* accurate more than about 5-7 days out, but maybe with new tech 10 day forecasts are accurate enough. I still don't trust more than 5 days out, though.

I didn't say you should trust it, just that they're being produced.

[Anonymous.]

Incoming local news teasers for two weeks about a white christmas

It honestly wouldn't surprise me. GFS paints doomsday, so the ratings leading into the Holiday will technnically have merit, but calling anything this far out would be completely disingenuous.

As of today this is the forecast for Christmas Day.

[SoonerDave]

Okay, the bigger question will be whether this all clears out by later in that week when people start heading to LA for the Rose Bowl. Lots of folks leaving out of the OKC or even DFW area late that week I suspect...

[acumpton]

I hope that changes to more blue than purple for Central Oklahoma if anything does happen.

[SoonerDave]

I hope that changes to more blue than purple for Central Oklahoma if anything does happen.

Yeah this far out I'm not counting on anything either way. Do not need ice that week (well, don't really need it any other week for that matter).

Think the TV folks are primarily focusing on the fact that the models are all seemingly trending toward *something* happening on Christmas weekend. Probably cold. Probably wet. How cold and how wet remain to be seen.

[riflesforwatie]

The GFS has been pretty consistent over the last 10-12 runs (with 1-2 exceptions) in terms of cold air entering the S. Plains a couple of days prior to Christmas. All over the place with precip, though. Strongest signal for precip is well south and east of Oklahoma, though there are some runs where Oklahoma gets precip + the cold air.

FWIW, comparing between models (initialized 0z on Dec. 13) at 0z on the 23rd shows that the GFS is the cold outlier relative to the Euro and Canadian. All three have quite different precipitation forecasts, too, which is unsurprising for a 240-hour forecast.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Right on track:

https://www.thelostogle.com/2017/12/...-snowmageddon/

[Anonymous.]

^ That is actually hilarious. Is KFOR really already showing a 6am, 12pm, 6pm forecast for Christmas day?

[SoonerDave]

There is a dandy GFS website with an animated ensemble of each interval run that you can "animate with a little slider bar
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...&xpos=0&ypos=0

The funny thing is that newest run seems to push most of any winter precip down to the SE part of the state around Christmas.

[Anonymous.]

Rain chances increasing tonight. Best chances will be the SE parts of the state, but OKC will still likely see a light rain pass through. Extreme fire danger today and basically all of this coming week.

[SoonerDave]

Anon, would you concur that those last few runs have been showing the possibility of a pretty interesting ice/sleet event right around Christmas Eve in the DFW area, and a chance at perhaps a dusting of snow in the southern part of the state (s of I-40)?

[Anonymous.]

TX and OK both are being consistently slammed by this upcoming storm in the GFS model. I will say, the GFS is notorious for painting things as way too extreme when it is this far out from the event. For example, the force and distance of the cold air being pushed so abnormally far south seems unreasonable. It is possible, but I bet as we get closer things will be dialed back. That raises some concerns as that would put a potential track directly over OK as opposed to more over TX. It will be very important to keep track of this over the next 4-5 days. My guess is the forecast is more north by the end of this week.

[SoonerDave]

And the very latest run seems to take that bad slam out of Texas, moves it to mostly a rain event to the east, but does show some snow/sleet for central OK overnight 24th into Christmas Day. These things are so wacky and volatile it's just nothing much more than a conversation item at this point.

[Easy180]

Norman Weather Center going with a flurries, less than one inch graphic as of this morning also adding models are trending drier.

[Anonymous.]

Yes the extreme fluctuations the GFS is going through from run-to-run can only mean one thing. That we are getting closer to legitimate forecasting windows!

By Thursday/Friday we should have a decent idea, as the cold air will be filtering into place. Until then, enjoy the swings.

[bchris02]

Tuttle is hyping highs in the low single digits and lows near -10, which will cause power outages and pipe bursts.

[judysue]

David Payne is adamant that there will no snow or close to none, and was downright ridiculing those who say otherwise on his FB live video today. The others, including AT are leaving the door open for winter precip but I haven't heard anyone say it is locked in.

[bradh]

Tuttle is hyping highs in the low single digits and lows near -10, which will cause power outages and pipe bursts.

That's the forecast for up here in MN