OKC Real Estate Market

[Jersey Boss]

There’s always the chance we could have a recession but most of the economic indicators are pretty strong overall. I don’t think it’s the base/expected case from Fed or most economists.

I think reality is we have no idea what we’re getting next year. We are going to get a huge shake up & change of policy direction. If Trump is serious about DOGE and let’s Musk/Ramaswamy go to town and starts slashing federal jobs and budget all bets are off IMO.

The economy has been so propped up by massive amounts of government spending & federal job creation last couple years that if that rug gets pulled no telling what short term effects are. Even if the funds rate goes down it doesn’t mean mortgage rates will. There’s an enormous amount of pressure on government bonds and the 10 year which mortgage rates most closely track. It’s why mortgage rates have gone up roughly 75 basis points while the fed has cut their funds rate 75 basis points this fall.

What’s your network looking at thinking? I honestly think we would have been better off if we had recession but the government propped it up with $10 trillion to the deficit since 2020 so it’s not like they’ll just let it happen. I know some people out there believe they will force one and try to reset things. It’s almost like we need one.

Gotta keep in mind that Trump is very pro equities & real estate, he wants to see them do very well & get the rates down not force a recession. In theory if we can get some of the government waste under control it should take some pressure off treasury yields and relax the rates. The real reason they can’t get them down is all of the Biden admins massive spending but financial markets actually think Trump will be worse so it’s a real interesting time. That’s why mortgage rate expectations have moved quite a bit higher since the election & virtually every economist is upping their long range projections which is a sign of economic strength as well.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-d...y-year-3306306

Deficit in Billions
2019- $984
2020- $3,132
2021-$2,772
2022- $1,376
2023= $1,684

[OKCRealtor]

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-d...y-year-3306306

Deficit in Billions
2019- $984
2020- $3,132
2021-$2,772
2022- $1,376
2023= $1,684

Taken from that source - it's all about the debt to GDP ratio. We are basically at all time highs depending on source. It's unsustainable, Jerome Powell has been warning for a few years now. It's way over 100%. Most of 2020 was bipartisan Covid relief. 2021-current they just never slowed it down in other ways so cumulatively we've got 5 years of spending damage done now.

One key differentiator though is 2022 - current has all been done in a very high rate environment where as 2020 & 2021 (should have stopped the spending here) was ultra low so these last few year deficits are in fact at least 2x as large (really higher the way interest works) We are paying over $1 trillion in interest alone this year, that's up like 35% from 2023 I believe which was also a record. Those bills keep coming the next decade unfortunately. What we've done since 22 is essentially rack up a tremendous amount of high rate credit card debt.

"The national debt can negatively impact the economy if it gets too large. The level of debt is also compared to GDP to determine whether there's too much debt for the economy to handle.

This comparison is called the debt-to-GDP ratio (debt divided by GDP). The country reaches a tipping point if the ratio is more than 77%.9 That's when lenders begin to worry about whether it's safe to buy the country's bonds. They think the government may not be able to pay back its debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio spiked to more than 130% in 2020 and has remained above 115% since."

[Bowser214]

PWC article regarding UIL’s recent report on top real estate markets to watch OKC ranked at a respectable 41 out of the top 80 markets. The only city in the state to make it on the list.
https://digitalmkg.pwc.com/etre-2025-pwc-uli/p/27

[Jersey Boss]

First time buyers should consider Cleveland County for that purchase. Nice program for those who qualify.
Cleveland County Launches First-Time Homebuyer Assistance Program
https://www.news9.com/story/6771e10d...stance-program

[warreng88]

I have been looking for rental properties over the past year and it seems like everything under $100/sf is in terrible condition. I guess that is just the new norm for OKC moving forward?

[OKCRealtor]

I have been looking for rental properties over the past year and it seems like everything under $100/sf is in terrible condition. I guess that is just the new norm for OKC moving forward?

Pretty much, they still exist especially the really cheap ranges sub $100k but for a reason. Consider that the median/average price per square foot now for all homes is $155/$161/ft MLS wide.

[gjl]

This house right down the street from me was a rental for quite a few years. The people renting it moved out about a month ago. It had a for rent sign in the yard for the last month and is now for sale. It is a perfect example of a starter house for $150K. Looks like it last sold in 3/2021 for $101K. Taxes on it last year were only $1436. In this neighborhood it will sell very fast.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/4301-N-...2036563_zpid/?

This house by me sold on 12/31/24 for $147,750.

[Pete]

This house by me sold on 12/31/24 for $147,750.

The $150K to $300K range seems to get a lot of action because that's a good entry-level for most new homeowners.

[Mississippi Blues]

This house by me sold on 12/31/24 for $147,750.

We bought our first house just south of there on NW 32nd between N Roff and Lyon in 2020 for $86k and the 2024 market value was assessed at $150k.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

Lots of price cuts

[OKCRealtor]

There's definitely a lot of value in the market, I've had several recent closings where the buyers are getting it under appraised value + closing costs/concessions.

Mortgage rates did the opposite of what the entire world expected and shot up over 100 basis points from September once Fed starting cutting through a couple days ago which hasn't helped.

However it looks like we are finally getting a little rate relief the last couple of days on better than expected inflation data & overall market is moving better last couple months. Hopefully this will get some buyers off the sidelines.