Electric Vehicles

[Pete]

I just don't think we'll see very many successful American EV makers because this country will be the slowest of anywhere to adopt.

Hopefully, Tesla remains a big player but that's it for now. There are hundreds of startups in China, Vietnam, and Korea -- especially China. They have a huge home market that is exploding and then will be in a good position to export to Europe and the rest of the world.

[Pete]

Keep your politics to yourself or you are going to get banned -- I don't care who you are.

[PhiAlpha]

Keep your politics to yourself or you are going to get banned -- I don't care who you are.

Those posts were fringe political at best but fair enough.

[jedicurt]

I just don't think we'll see very many successful American EV makers because this country will be the slowest of anywhere to adopt.

i think we will see a few that end up successful because they see the true adoption market in the US. it isn't and won't be personal cars for quiet some time, it's the delivery industry. i know several local oil field supply companies whom i have personally talked with the owners and they are waiting for the ability to replace their small delivery vans or small trucks with a suitable electric alternative. you see places like USPS, WalMart, Kroger, and many others looking at them solely for deliveries. the last time i was in dallas, almost all of my lyft drivers were telling me that they have an electric car for their lyft driving and then a second car for personal use. and that is how they set their hours basically... they do pickups till they need to charge, then take time off while it is charging.

[Teo9969]

Honest question, how do you as a country win the battery game when China owns the field, ball, players and the commissioner? They own all the mining in the Africa , South American, Asian critical elements mines, essentially slave labor. They are the only country to manufacture and process the cobalt and minerals to process it into batteries.

All the primary resources in the world don't beat out game changing ingenuity. Making a product super cheap only matters if that product is competitive. In 2024, EV batteries are not competitive with traditional ICEs and Hybrids (of course, this is situationally false, but we're talking the entire market). If a US group figures out the battery and competitors take a few years to catch up, that can make a big difference in whoever partners with them.

I think the market wants a batter that is relatively unaffected by weather, and maintain a well over 500 mile range during the first 30,000 miles+ (probably more like 700 mile range for the first 30k miles and not reaching a 500 mile max range until after hitting 120k miles.

[PhiAlpha]

All the primary resources in the world don't beat out game changing ingenuity. Making a product super cheap only matters if that product is competitive. In 2024, EV batteries are not competitive with traditional ICEs and Hybrids (of course, this is situationally false, but we're talking the entire market). If a US group figures out the battery and competitors take a few years to catch up, that can make a big difference in whoever partners with them.

I think the market wants a batter that is relatively unaffected by weather, and maintain a well over 500 mile range during the first 30,000 miles+ (probably more like 700 mile range for the first 30k miles and not reaching a 500 mile max range until after hitting 120k miles.

For sure. Need to swing for the fences here.

[Midtowner]

I'm not sure I agree with all of the pessimism surrounding personal vehicles and adoption of EVs. As soon as automakers bring their prices in line with ICE vehicles and there's some answer to battery replacement that costs a reasonable amount of money, consumers will start to come around. I know I was gung ho to get a Lightning when they came out, but then Ford nearly doubled the price of the vehicles and for that $20K+ price increase, I could buy a lot of gasoline, so it made no sense.

And that's really what it's going take in the U.S. to make it work.

I was really excited and I am ready to go when something acceptable comse down the pike. Until then, my 'ol Bimmer is paid for and at 150K miles, still runs great.

[PhiAlpha]

I'm not sure I agree with all of the pessimism surrounding personal vehicles and adoption of EVs. As soon as automakers bring their prices in line with ICE vehicles and there's some answer to battery replacement that costs a reasonable amount of money, consumers will start to come around. I know I was gung ho to get a Lightning when they came out, but then Ford nearly doubled the price of the vehicles and for that $20K+ price increase, I could buy a lot of gasoline, so it made no sense.

And that's really what it's going take in the U.S. to make it work.

I was really excited and I am ready to go when something acceptable comse down the pike. Until then, my 'ol Bimmer is paid for and at 150K miles, still runs great.

That's the problem...they're having trouble making money selling them at their current prices.

There is also going to have to be a large used vehicle inventory for mass adoption to take off. Not everyone can afford (or wants to pay) for a new vehicle even at ICE vehicle prices.

[jn1780]

What are some EV markets that are actually comparable to the US?. If less of the population use cars is it really surprising that Europe has a higher EV adoption rate? If they have to get a car they do seem more likely to get an EV and its easier to build out the infrastructure in European cities.

[Zorba]

i think we will see a few that end up successful because they see the true adoption market in the US. it isn't and won't be personal cars for quiet some time, it's the delivery industry. i know several local oil field supply companies whom i have personally talked with the owners and they are waiting for the ability to replace their small delivery vans or small trucks with a suitable electric alternative. you see places like USPS, WalMart, Kroger, and many others looking at them solely for deliveries. the last time i was in dallas, almost all of my lyft drivers were telling me that they have an electric car for their lyft driving and then a second car for personal use. and that is how they set their hours basically... they do pickups till they need to charge, then take time off while it is charging.

Amazon has started using some EVs, nice and quiet and they have a cute look to them, for whatever that is worth. I just can't believe every delivery vehicle in the US isn't a hybrid by now, with many going full EV. There is no better segment in transportation for hybrids that last mile delivery. But there is far more bank for the buck in converting the delivery fleet to EV than personal vehicles.

[Pete]

The delivery van / postal vehicle adoption in the U.S. is a great point.

Also, short-haul trucking.

In those ways, the U.S. has more demand than anywhere because our country and most communities are so spread out.


In addition, they are making huge leaps in autonomous vehicles. There is huge motivation because all these trucking and delivery companies are having a terrible time staffing positions.

[TheTravellers]

The delivery van / postal vehicle adoption in the U.S. is a great point.

Also, short-haul trucking.

In those ways, the U.S. has more demand than anywhere because our country and most communities are so spread out.


In addition, they are making huge leaps in autonomous vehicles. There is huge motivation because all these trucking and delivery companies are having a terrible time staffing positions.

There's going to have to be *a lot* of infrastructure work to make autonomous vehicles feasible, they need to know where the lanes are and in OKC, that's a complete fail for huge parts of the city - worn out paint, non-existent paint, not very good paint (where it comes to lanes splitting off from the main ones, it's not striped well or far enough in advance), etc. My MINI can't even detect the lane markings 50% of the time, thinks I'm straying even when I'm perfectly in the middle of the lane (and yes, I know autonomous vehicles will most likely have a more robust set of detection sensors/cameras than my MINI, but still).

Back on topic, though - the USPS should have a significant percentage of their fleet be all electric (or at least hybrid) by now. Should've been replacing aged-out vehicles with electric starting years ago. And yes, all the other short-haul/last-mile trucks too. But I believe all those companies (USPS included) run their trucks until they're completely worn out, so it might take a while to start replacing old ones with electric, unfortunately, gotta recover those sunk costs (probably multiple times over ).

[Pete]

There's going to have to be *a lot* of infrastructure work to make autonomous vehicles feasible, they need to know where the lanes are and in OKC, that's a complete fail for huge parts of the city - worn out paint, non-existent paint, not very good paint (where it comes to lanes splitting off from the main ones, it's not striped well or far enough in advance), etc. My MINI can't even detect the lane markings 50% of the time, thinks I'm straying even when I'm perfectly in the middle of the lane (and yes, I know autonomous vehicles will most likely have a more robust set of detection sensors/cameras than my MINI, but still).

They have already run successful tests of autonomous trucks between various cities.

And there are several cities that are already using autonomous cabs and shuttles.


Long way to go, but great progress is being made.

[LakeEffect]

Back on topic, though - the USPS should have a significant percentage of their fleet be all electric (or at least hybrid) by now. Should've been replacing aged-out vehicles with electric starting years ago. And yes, all the other short-haul/last-mile trucks too. But I believe all those companies (USPS included) run their trucks until they're completely worn out, so it might take a while to start replacing old ones with electric, unfortunately, gotta recover those sunk costs (probably multiple times over ).

https://about.usps.com/newsroom/nati...y-vehicles.htm

"USPS plans on procuring a total of 21,000 COTS EVs — including 9,250 from Ford — depending on market availability and operational feasibility. In addition, the Postal Service anticipates adding at least 45,000 battery-electric Next Generation Delivery Vehicles (NGDVs) by 2028, bringing the total number of EVs in the delivery fleet to more than 66,000."

[PhiAlpha]

All I want are autonomous trucks that don't try to pass people at 15 mph under the speed limit while going uphill on I-44. Is that too much to ask? lol

Also the USPS is an excellent use case for electric vehicles, especially Canoo's. Will be pretty cool if that works out.

[Jersey Boss]

Elon Musk's Tesla recalls 2.2 million vehicles, nearly every vehicle sold in the U.S. | Fortune
https://fortune.com/2024/02/02/elon-...too-small/amp/

Growing pains

[FighttheGoodFight]

Ya we might pull the trigger on a model y next month. The credit up front plus the price drop making it very attractive!

[jn1780]

Elon Musk's Tesla recalls 2.2 million vehicles, nearly every vehicle sold in the U.S. | Fortune
https://fortune.com/2024/02/02/elon-...too-small/amp/


Growing pains

It's worth noting that this recall is just a software update that will be pushed out. A very easy fix.

[Pete]

Mercedes just released a new electric version of its mega-popular Sprinter delivery van, and they now have a 300+ mile range.

I'm sure that would easily eclipse the maximum of almost any local delivery route.


You have to believe delivery will be the one area where we start to see high adoption in the U.S.

[jccouger]

Elon Musk's Tesla recalls 2.2 million vehicles, nearly every vehicle sold in the U.S. | Fortune
https://fortune.com/2024/02/02/elon-...too-small/amp/

Growing pains

It's literally just a software update for the size of it's warning lights by 5%. Typical click bait garbage journalism.

[jn1780]

It's literally just a software update for the size of it's warning lights by 5%. Typical click bait garbage journalism.

Yeah, I pointed that out a couple of posts up. It is still a federal mandated recall and that article does point out some other issues being investigated not related to the headline which seem like a bigger deal than what the headline is actually saying. Basically autopilot is not fully ready to be fully autonomous and drivers need to be reminded of that.

[CaptDave]

New Porsche Macan EV just released - early range tests getting 325 or so per charge. Updated Porsche Taycan achieved 465 miles on a charge in a hypermile range test. It will likely get well over 300 per charge during "normal" driving depending on the spec. They also have modular batteries so if there is a problem, a faulty module can be replaced instead of the entire pack.