Electric Vehicles

[jedicurt]

40% of all US EV sales are in California. If the EV market is going to surpass ICE sales nationwide in the next 7 years someone else better start buying them soon. Even at 40% of all EV sales they still only account for 12% of new cars sold in California. Time will tell but EVs are going to be hard pressed to surpass the 50% mark nationwide in 7 years when they are still at 12% in their best market. Of course, by banning new car sales the percentage will increase even if it results in fewer actual vehicles being sold.

well S&P global Mobility thinks it will be close. they predict 40-45% of total car sales being EV by 2030, Bloomberg thinks it might even be the year before, but will be more than half by 2030, C-Net says 2030 or 2031

i mean it's certainly an upward trend. it took 8 years to sell the first million EV cars in the US, 3 years to sell the next million, and now more than a million were sold in just 2022. and just because people don't see them everywhere doesn't mean that the sales are increasing. if we keep going on the current track that the Edison Electric Institute has talked about, we could see EV's be 50% of the sales, while still only being 10% of the total vehicles on the road.

[jedicurt]

40% of all US EV sales are in California. If the EV market is going to surpass ICE sales nationwide in the next 7 years someone else better start buying them soon. Even at 40% of all EV sales they still only account for 12% of new cars sold in California. Time will tell but EVs are going to be hard pressed to surpass the 50% mark nationwide in 7 years when they are still at 12% in their best market. Of course, by banning new car sales the percentage will increase even if it results in fewer actual vehicles being sold.

lets also not forget that California being 40% is fine, considering that California is 45% of total car sales each year for the whole country.

[jerrywall]

Plus, the change will come fairly quickly because the car manufactures themselves have committed to switching all or the majority of their lines to EV over the next ceade. I'm in the middle of ordering one of the final year ICE Challengers right now - they're not going away because of lack of sales or popularity - they're being retired in favor of EV muscle cars. It's happening. Unless the manufacturers change direction and pull back (which is unlikely) it will get more and more difficult to purchase a new ICE car.

[jedicurt]

Plus, the change will come fairly quickly because the car manufactures themselves have committed to switching all or the majority of their lines to EV over the next ceade. I'm in the middle of ordering one of the final year ICE Challengers right now - they're not going away because of lack of sales or popularity - they're being retired in favor of EV muscle cars. It's happening. Unless the manufacturers change direction and pull back (which is unlikely) it will get more and more difficult to purchase a new ICE car.

exactly. to think that 2030 is a ridiculously short timeframe for EV's to pass ICE in sales, when by that time, there is a good chance that a majority of cars manufactured will be EV's and no longer ICE... is kind of crazy. i'm not saying that will be the year, but it will be extremely close by then.

[Pete]

Lots of automakers have pointed to 2030 as the year by which they will only sell EVs.

Think about this: Not long ago, it would be incomprehensible that Ford would only sell one car. But that is now the case as the Mustang is the only non-SUV or truck in their lineup. Most everyone else is following suit and cars now only represent about 20% of new vehicle sales in the United States. Last month there was only one car in the Top 10, the Toyota Camry at #7 and falling fast.

SUVs weren't even on anyone's radar as recently as the early 90s and now traditional cars have almost all faded into the sunset, at least here in the U.S. It still shocks me when I think about it and demonstrates how quickly things can change in even the largest of consumer markets.

[Just the facts]

Yeah, I understand all of the hype, predictions by analysts, the desire of Environmental crowd etc... But when it comes to real dollars I just don't think it is going to pan out. GM announced they were going 100% electric by 2035, then a few months later announced they were going to invest $1 billion in new V8 engines. Wall Street is pressuring Ford to spin-off their EV division, and not so investors can invest in hugely profitable ICE operations but so they can invest directly in the massive losses in the EV division. The Market simply is not driving this level of investment and economics will always win out.

I would be interested to know how much overlap there is between Crypto-currency, EV, and autonomous car believers.

[Pete]

There are still a ton of people over 50 who won't use social media, hate cell phones, and that are very resistant to change of any type.

And it's true many will never buy an EV in their lifetimes and will continue to write them off as 'hype' by the 'environmental crowd'... That won't change the way this is going to continue to unfold one bit.

[jedicurt]

Yeah, I understand all of the hype, predictions by analysts, the desire of Environmental crowd etc... But when it comes to real dollars I just don't think it is going to pan out. GM announced they were going 100% electric by 2035, then a few months later announced they were going to invest $1 billion in new V8 engines. Wall Street is pressuring Ford to spin-off their EV division, and not so investors can invest in hugely profitable ICE operations but so they can invest directly in the massive losses in the EV division. The Market simply is not driving this level of investment and economics will always win out.

I would be interested to know how much overlap there is between Crypto-currency, EV, and autonomous car believers.

Farley already answered this for FORD, “And despite the press speculation, we have no plans to spin off our electric business or ICE business. It’s really more around focus and capabilities, expertise and talent. Those are key for Ford, and this is what we’re working on.”

that was on an investor Conference call over a year ago.

as for GM, it's 1 Billion was for the next gen of V-8 engings as well as supporting production of EV components. that last part seems to keep being forgotten. is GM still planning on releasing a new V-8? maybe, they released their last on just back in 2013. so it's been only a 10 year life cycle. if they hope to get it on the market by 2025, then they might still phase it out by 2035, since it looks like they are trying to phase our their current gen V-8's after just 10-12 years.

as for your last comment? i have never invested in crypto (infact i refused back in 2012 to be paid 22 bitcoin for some work that i had done creating a website... that sure turned out to be perhaps a bad strategy on my part), i think fully autonomous cars are a major legal liability that will take a long time to resolve, but do believe that the tech that has been created around the idea of autonomous cars, has led to major new safety features that are now becoming industry standards, and so the development in the tech has been very worthwhile.

[GoGators]

lets also not forget that California being 40% is fine, considering that California is 45% of total car sales each year for the whole country.

This is why California law usually dictates what auto manufactures do for the entire country. We saw this with California's emission standards for ICE vehicles. The zero emission new car sales law in California will no doubt influence what automakers invest in and it will have an effect on the entire country with regards to what new cars are available to buy in 2035 and beyond.

[Just the facts]

In GM's $1 billion joint V8/EV spending only about $60 million went to EV. The other $940 million went to the V8.

Anyhow, despite the disagreement the conversation has atleast been civil, and that says a lot. Time will tell what the futute of EVs are but I'll go out on a limb and say this. When an EV gets a consistent 600 mile range and I can recharge it from 0% to 100% in less than 10 minutes I'll consider buying one.

In the meantime, I tend to agree with this guy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stel...commendations=

And the companion article.

https://www.businessinsider.com/auto...option-2022-12

[Pete]

This is why California law usually dictates what auto manufactures do for the entire country. We saw this with California's emission standards for ICE vehicles. The zero emission new car sales law in California will no doubt influence what automakers invest in and it will have an effect on the entire country with regards to what new cars are available to buy in 2035 and beyond.

I often tell the story of visiting Los Angeles for the first time in 1981. The smog was shockingly thick and there were frequent alerts on the radio.

When I moved there in 1990, the smog had almost completely disappeared and I can't remember a single smog alert in my 25 years on the West Coast.


It's become popular to hate on California, ironically through technology, a piece of software, and on a phone or computer literally invented there. But they have always been ahead of the curve when it comes to innovation and just finding a better way and most of the country and world has been following their lead for a long time.

[Just the facts]

On a side note, I believe the Cell Phone was invented in NYC and the Smartphone in Atlanta, but I'm open to being wrong on that.

[jerrywall]

On a side note, I believe the Cell Phone was invented in NYC and the Smartphone in Atlanta, but I'm open to being wrong on that.

I think there are a lot of pieces of technology developed around the country (first Microchip was in Texas, first graphical web browser was built in Illinois, etc) it's fair to give California/Silicon Valley credit for developing these into mainstream technologies and for the digital transformation and growth over the past 30 years.

[T. Jamison]

My good friend in Iowa would be angry if I didn't mention the worlds first "electronic digital computer" was built on the Iowa State campus.

[Dob Hooligan]

I think grievance with the way cars are made and sold today has led to a utopian vision of the future of EVs.

Such as--

They will never break or cost money to maintain. Since engines and transmissions won't wear out, we can keep one 30 to 40 years.

Car dealers are crooks, but the factory will provide a perfect, low cost system that will always look out for us as buyers and never overcharge or take advantage of us.

If they prevent us from buying parts or working on our own cars, it is for our own protection.

[Pete]

^

It's about progress and improvement, not perfection.

Everyone realizes the journey won't be perfect but it sure helps to visualize where you are trying to go.

[Swake]

Time will tell what the futute of EVs are but I'll go out on a limb and say this. When an EV gets a consistent 600 mile range and I can recharge it from 0% to 100% in less than 10 minutes I'll consider buying one.

It takes 10 minutes to fill my car with gas and I get ~320 miles of range for a full tank. Why would an electric vehicle need twice that range for you to consider buying one?

[Jersey Boss]

According to J.D. Powers, Tesla reliability is at the bottom of manufactured vehicles. I'll stick with my Honda for the coming years. Body panels with gaps, limited service outlets, a questionable mercurial owner, etc.


https://www.jdpower.com/business/pre...ility-studyvds

[Pete]

According to J.D. Powers, Tesla reliability is at the bottom of manufactured vehicles. I'll stick with my Honda for the for the coming years. Body panels with gaps, limited service outlets, a questionable owner, etc.


https://www.jdpower.com/business/pre...ility-studyvds

I've never been a fan of Tesla vehicles but just today I read an article that said their current models have dramatically improved on the build issues.

But Kia/Hundai/Genesis has some great EVs that all get very high marks including quality of build, as do most that come from the legacy manufacturers.


Of everything out and about to come out in the next couple of years, I would lean towards the Audi A6 e-tron right now:

https://www.caranddriver.com/audi/a6-e-tron

[Just the facts]

It takes 10 minutes to fill my car with gas and I get ~320 miles of range for a full tank. Why would an electric vehicle need twice that range for you to consider buying one?

I was just comparing it to my car. My BMW gets a little over 40 mpg on the highway. On a recent trip from Jax to OKC I stopped for gas in Birmingham, AL and a second time around Ozark, AR. Since I was by myself the stop consisted gas, bathroom, and hotdog. On and off the interstate in less than 20 minutes.

[KTB]

According to J.D. Powers, Tesla reliability is at the bottom of manufactured vehicles. I'll stick with my Honda for the coming years. Body panels with gaps, limited service outlets, a questionable mercurial owner, etc.


https://www.jdpower.com/business/pre...ility-studyvds

I just purchased a Tesla Model Y Performance and it was perfect. It was manufactured in Fremont and shipped here. I have had a lot of performance cars and the Tesla puts them all to shame. Simply amazing. I've had cars with big blocks, small blocks, nitrous, superchargers and the Tesla is faster than everyone of them, and I don't even have the Plaid. Mine will do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds and the quarter mile in high 11's. Everyone that checks mine out wants one including my 80 year old Dad. One neighbor already got theirs. For most, it has plenty of range. Mine is advertised at over 300 miles of range but I think a realistic number is around 225 which is plenty for my wife. I still drive a gas SUV so we'd just take that if at all concerned. The key is the ability to charge at home. If you're dependent on public chargers then don't bother. It's no different than plugging in your phone at night.

I have a friend that owns a foreign auto repair shop and he's shocked how fast EV's have entered the mainstream. He's now starting to think about how he could start learning how to service them in the future for his business.

[jn1780]

Just for fun. In what year does EV sales exceed ICE sales in the US?

We should start small. Like when does EV sales make up 25% of new sales. 25% is when auto manufactures really start putting demand pressure on the inputs used to make electric vehicles. The speed of battery development is what will dictate how fast EV's become mainstream. Not to mention we need to figure out how to make batteries lighter. Our roads will start feeling the effects of these heavier vehicles when they make up a greater market share.

[Bill Robertson]

We should start small. Like when does EV sales make up 25% of new sales. 25% is when auto manufactures really start putting demand pressure on the inputs used to make electric vehicles. The speed of battery development is what will dictate how fast EV's become mainstream. Not to mention we need to figure out how to make batteries lighter. Our roads will start feeling the effects of these heavier vehicles when they make up a greater market share.

I searched "EV percent of sales in US". a USDOE article said EV sales increased 85% from 2020 to 2021. An Autoweek article said in 2022 EV sales accounted for 4.6% of new car sales. That makes sense considering the previous percentage of car sales that California makes up as mentioned earlier.

[fortpatches]

I searched "EV percent of sales in US". a USDOE article said EV sales increased 85% from 2020 to 2021. An Autoweek article said in 2022 EV sales accounted for 4.6% of new car sales. That makes sense considering the previous percentage of car sales that California makes up as mentioned earlier.

According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2022, EVs made up 10% of all new car sales.
EVs Made Up 10% of All New Cars Sold Last Year - WSJ

[David]

According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2022, EVs made up 10% of all new car sales.
EVs Made Up 10% of All New Cars Sold Last Year - WSJ

That's a fairly impressive number considering it's world-wide. The US is going to get left behind if we don't step up.